David Leonhardt: Brexit is getting real

Britain is getting closer to ‘hard’ exit from Europe. View in [Browser]( | Add nytdirect@nytimes.com to your address book. [The New York Times]( [The New York Times]( Thursday, February 14, 2019 [NYTimes.com/David-Leonhardt »]( [Op-Ed Columnist] Op-Ed Columnist I’ve become grimly fascinated by Brexit. It’s a huge news story with an uncertain outcome. And there are no longer any good outcomes. There are only bad or worse ones. For the sake of simplicity, you can think of Brexit in terms of three broad options. Option 1 is known as “hard Brexit”: Britain simply leaves the European Union trading zone, without any negotiated agreement that keeps some of the benefits and restrictions that come with being part of Europe. If Parliament doesn’t do anything further between now and March 29, hard Brexit is the default. Option 2 is the middle ground, and it’s what Prime Minister Theresa May has been pushing. Britain leaves the trading zone with a negotiated agreement. There is a range of such options, leaving Britain more or less tied to the continent. Finally, Option 3 — which once seemed unthinkable — is to hold a second vote that would reconsider Brexit. In 2016, Britain voted for Brexit by a close but clear margin of 52 percent to 48 percent. But the pro-Brexit campaign was premised on [lies and exaggerations]( about what it would mean. That’s a big reason members of Parliament can’t agree on a specific plan. A good number of them [want the impossible](. I’m genuinely torn about what the least bad outcome is. I think Brexit was a big mistake. It weakens the political strength of the Western alliance that includes Britain, the European continent and the United States. And it already seems to be hurting the British economy, with Schaeffler (a car-parts company), Morgan Stanley and others [closing]( British offices. But I also don’t like ignoring the results of a national referendum. If I got to choose, Parliament would hold a separate vote on each of the three major options, including hard Brexit. If none came close to a majority, the British people would vote again, on two separate questions — whether to leave the European Union and, if Brexit wins again, how to do so. For more … On [this week’s episode of “The Argument,”]( my colleague Roger Cohen joined us to talk Brexit, and I thought he made a strong case for a second vote. Democracies, he said, have the right to change their mind. On the other side of the issue, Steve Hilton — a former top adviser to David Cameron, the prime minister who called the initial Brexit referendum — made the best case I’ve heard for hard Brexit. Hilton didn’t persuade me, but he did help me understand his side. Elsewhere: The Financial Times’s [Philip Stephens]( argues that May’s negotiating strategy has prioritized her party’s hard-liners over a compromise with Europe, setting up the country for a hard Brexit. A recent [Economist article]( explains why May is unlikely to win over enough support, even from her own Conservative Party, for a negotiated Brexit before the March deadline. The Labour Party is also divided on Brexit. [At least 10 Labour lawmakers]( are prepared to resign if Jeremy Corbyn, the head of the party, does not call for a second referendum on Brexit. The Guardian’s [Zoe Williams]( calls for a different version of my preferred outcome: Parliament passes the May plan — but also sets a second referendum for coming weeks, in which voters would choose between May’s Brexit or remaining in Europe. ADVERTISEMENT If you enjoy this newsletter, forward it to friends! They can [sign up for themselves here]( — and they don’t need to be a Times subscriber. The newsletter is published every weekday, with help from my colleague Ian Prasad Philbrick. David’s Morning NYT Read [Would Congress Care More if Parkland Had Been a Plane Crash?]( By JACLYN CORIN Seventeen of my classmates and teachers died in the Parkland shooting, yet lawmakers still drag their feet on controlling guns. The Latest Episode of ‘The Argument’ [Is the Green New Deal a Leftist Fantasy?]( And what should Britain do about Brexit? The Full Opinion Report [The Answer Is Blowin’ in the Wind]( By GAIL COLLINS Of Stalin, Hitler and environmental protection. [Navigating the Male-Female Work Relationship]( By NICHOLAS KRISTOF There’s plenty of safe middle ground between a man’s leering at women and his simply avoiding them. [Pretend It’s Aliens]( By FARHAD MANJOO A neat mental trick to understand the climate battle ahead. [Iran’s 40 Years of Darkness]( By BRET STEPHENS Tehran’s behavior gives the lie to the idea that it matches conciliation with conciliation. It matches conciliation with contempt. [When Judges Defy the Supreme Court]( By LINDA GREENHOUSE The chief justice faces a time of great testing, both of himself and of the institution he heads, as the lower courts move rapidly even to his right. [The Green New Deal Is What Realistic Environmental Policy Looks Like]( By JEDEDIAH BRITTON-PURDY In the 21st century, environmental policy is economic policy. [‘I Remember the First Time I Saw a Teenager Die’]( By ERIC CURRAN Scenes from the trauma bay haunt those of us who work to save the victims of gun violence. [A New Model to Stop the Next School Shooting]( By AMY BARNHORST I’m a psychiatrist, but I’m also a parent. Where do my loyalties lie? [Governor Northam’s Troubling Silence on Racism]( By MELANYE PRICE Why won’t he explain how his views have evolved? [Indonesia’s Next Election Is in April. The Islamists Have Already Won.]( By EKA KURNIAWAN How religion has come to dominate our politics. [Southern Baptists Face Their #MeToo Moment]( By RUSSELL MOORE A report on sexual abuse has rocked the denomination. How will it respond? [A Portrait of Intimate Violence]( By ANNE FINGER The combination of my father’s alcoholism and my disability was a dangerous one. [Flashing Yellow Light in France]( By THE EDITORIAL BOARD Their numbers are dwindling, but the Yellow Vest protesters continue to bedevil the government of Emmanuel Macron. [Everyone Needs Legal Help. That Doesn’t Mean Everyone Needs a Lawyer.]( By CRISTIAN FARIAS Rebecca Sandefur believes America needs a new model for handling everyday legal issues. [‘Race Is Not a Costume’]( By RACHEL L. HARRIS AND LISA TARCHAK Readers share their thoughts on blackface. [The Church and Abortion: What History Shows]( A theologian writes that the church once took a nuanced view of the procedure, and a reader cautions against linking “the pro-life cause to a larger revolt against sterility.” ADVERTISEMENT FEEDBACK and HELP If you have thoughts about this newsletter, email me at [leonhardt@nytimes.com](mailto:leonhardt@nytimes.com?subject=David%20Leonhardt%20Newsletter%20Feedback). If you have questions about your Times account, delivery problems or other non-journalistic issues, you can visit our [Help Page]( or [contact The Times](. FOLLOW OPINION [Facebook] [FACEBOOK]( [Twitter] [@nytopinion]( [Pinterest] [Pinterest]( Get more [NYTimes.com newsletters »](  | Get unlimited access to NYTimes.com and our NYTimes apps. [Subscribe »]( ABOUT THIS EMAIL You received this message because you signed up for NYTimes.com's David Leonhardt newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Manage Subscriptions]( | [Change Your Email]( | [Privacy Policy]( | [Contact]( | [Advertise]( Copyright 2019 The New York Times Company 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018