Opinion: A double dose of optimism

It’s the start of a new year, after all. So here’s to hope, both economic and political. View in [Browser]( | Add nytdirect@nytimes.com to your address book. [The New York Times]( [The New York Times]( Thursday, January 3, 2019 [NYTimes.com/Opinion »]( [David Leonhardt] David Leonhardt Op-Ed Columnist In the spirit of a new year, I give you a double dose of optimism this morning. First, some political optimism, via a few of the wiser writers about democracy: “I just want to remind everyone saying good riddance to 2018 that it was a heck of a lot better than 2017,” [Benjamin Wittes]( of Lawfare tweeted on New Year’s Eve. “We are making progress. 2019 will also be better — which is not to say it won’t be hard. Keep the faith, people.” Similarly, [Yascha Mounk]( of Johns Hopkins University wrote: “2019 will bring plenty of terrible news. But with populist governments on the ropes in India, Poland, and America, it may also mark the year in which citizens around the world remember the importance of freedom and self-determination. Happy New Year, everyone! Let’s fight.” And [Anne Applebaum]( of The Washington Post was the most succinct: “Happy New Year to all. Spring is coming.” I’ll echo the last part of Mounk’s tweet: Let’s fight. Democracy remains more threatened than I ever expected it to be in my lifetime. And there is indeed plenty of bad news, like the inauguration this week of a militaristic potential autocrat in Brazil. But like the writers quoted here, I see more reason for hope than at the start of either of the previous two years. The main reason is that people have started to become more politically engaged and speak up for democracy. I hope it continues. Like a pair of dice. Now for some economic optimism — or at least an absence of pessimism. It’s become trendy to claim that the United States is “due” for a recession in 2019. The current economic expansion began in June 2009, which means it’s already [the second longest on record](. At some point, won’t the current expansion die of old age? The short answer is no. “It’s tempting to think of an economic expansion as being like a life span. The older you get, the closer you are to death; a 95-year-old probably has fewer years left to live than a 60-year-old,” as Neil Irwin of The Times wrote a couple of years ago, [in a piece]( that changed my thinking on the subject. In truth, he wrote, academic research pointed to a different conclusion: “Expansions don’t die of old age. They die because something specific killed them. It can be a wrong-footed central bank, the popping of a financial bubble or a shock from overseas. But age itself isn’t the problem.” The American economy is certainly facing some risks right now. Stocks remain [historically expensive](. Global debt has risen substantially over the past decade. The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates. And President Trump and his top advisers [aren’t exactly]( top-notch economic stewards. But don’t make the mistake of thinking that a recession is inevitable this year. The best rule about predicting recessions is that virtually no one can reliably do so. To see where the economy is headed, keep an eye on the major indicators — like stocks, bonds and the job market — and don’t rely too much on short-term movements. The next data I’ll be watching will be the monthly jobs report that comes out on Friday. And the most important indicator in that report is the number of jobs that the economy created in December. (The unemployment rate, though better known, is based on a much smaller survey and is less meaningful.) Recently, the American economy has been adding roughly 200,000 jobs a month. If that number starts falling over multiple months, it’s a bad sign. 2020. On the new episode of [“The Argument” podcast]( Ross Douthat, Michelle Goldberg and I answer listener questions — including who should be the Democratic nominee in 2020. We also talk with comedian and Emmy-winning writer Ashley Nicole Black. The full Opinion report from The Times follows. [Slandering the Unborn]( How bad science and a moral panic, fueled in part by the news media, demonized mothers and defamed a generation. From Our Columnists The Argument [Your Questions, Answered]( Plus Ashley Nicole Black on political comedy. [Useless Knowledge Begets New Horizons]( By BRET STEPHENS Fundamental discoveries don’t always have practical uses, but they have soul-saving applications. Contributing Op-Ed Writer [A Call to Arms at the Supreme Court]( By LINDA GREENHOUSE Conservative judges worry that the Second Amendment has become “a second-class right.” [Trump’s Shutdown Is Not About Border Security]( Yarek Waszul By THE EDITORIAL BOARD About 800,000 federal employees, and the citizens who depend on them, are being hurt for an empty political stunt. [The Watergate Class of ’74 Has Valuable Lessons for Freshman Democrats]( By MARK SCHMITT New House members should study how their earlier counterparts saw their jobs and their relationship to constituents. For starters, keep it local. ADVERTISEMENT LIKE THIS EMAIL? Forward it to your friends, and let them know they can sign up here. More in Opinion [Why Republicans Should Support Immigration]( By JORDAN BRUNEAU Just look to California to see what President Trump’s strident anti-immigration policies could do to the national Republican Party. [The Dangerous Rise of the IUD as Poverty Cure]( By CHRISTINE DEHLENDORF AND KELSEY HOLT The notion that limiting women’s reproduction can cure societal ills has a long, scary history. [Why the World Needs America and China to Get Along]( By ROBERT E. RUBIN Only Washington and Beijing, working together, can slow climate change and the spread of nuclear weapons. [What a French Doctor’s Office Taught Me About Health Care]( Alexander Glandien By ERICA REX I moved to Europe because I couldn’t afford to be a cancer patient in America. I’d rather have been able to stay home. Readers Respond [Your Hopes for 2019]( By RACHEL L. HARRIS AND LISA TARCHAK Love, political change, a pennant: Readers respond with their hopes for 2019, for both themselves and for the world. We’ve got more newsletters! You might like Frank Bruni’s newsletter.  Go beyond the headlines and behind the curtain with Frank Bruni’s candid reflections on politics, culture, higher education and more every week. 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