Also: The gift that Trump may be giving to Democrats in the final days of the midterms.
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[The New York Times](
Friday, November 2, 2018
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[David Leonhardt]
David Leonhardt
Op-Ed Columnist
First, âThis president has always wanted the election to be about him. And, in these final hours heâs made sure to put the focus back on himself,â writes [Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report]( in a good state-of-the-midterms piece. Yet that approach may be a gift to Democrats, she explains: Trumpâs approval ratings tend to rise when the focus is elsewhere â and fall when itâs on him.
Race, class or both? Since 2016, there has been a raging debate about the main causes of Donald Trumpâs shocking victory. On one side are journalists, political scientists and others who believe that racial resentment was the overwhelming reason that Trump won. On the other side are people ([including me]( who believe this story is too simplistic and that, while race played a big role, economic factors did too.
[In a new book]( Steven Pearlstein of The Washington Post has a chart that reminds me of this debate. The chart contains two lines, the first measuring income inequality and the second measuring political polarization between the two parties in Congress. Both start in 1967 and go until almost the present. And both lines rise sharply, in close proximity: As inequality increases, so does polarization.
Why? The new class of the superwealthy have pushed (mostly Republican) politicians to support ever more extreme policies to protect their wealth, like tax cuts, deregulation and the undermining of labor unions. The result, Pearlstein writes, is âa self-reinforcing dynamic in which concentrations of economic and political power feed off each other.â Democrats, for their part, have responded by opposing many of these pro-wealthy policies.
âBut,â Pearlstein explains, âitâs not just the politicians who have been affected. Rising income inequality has also changed the attitudes and behavior of American voters, sowing resentment, fanning prejudice and eroding the sense of shared values, shared purpose and shared destiny that once held the country together.â
One of the groups thatâs struggled the most over this period of rising inequality is the white working class. Incomes and wealth have stagnated for many workers, of all races. But while nonwhite workers have benefited from the reduction (but by no means the elimination) of racism during the past half-century, whites have not. This combination helps explain why the recent trends in health and life expectancy are [worse for working-class whites]( than for any other major demographic group.
If anything, it would be surprising if these trends did not affect political views. Sure enough, they seem to have done so. Over the same period that working-class whites have endured stagnation, they have shifted to the right. Many have abandoned the vision that Democrats have long offered â one of âshared values, shared purpose and shared destinyâ (to use Pearlsteinâs phrase) for the middle class, working class and poor.
Trump turbocharged this shift. He did so by running a campaign that was both more economically populist and more overtly racial than any other recent Republican had. The two themes played off each other, as [Andrew Cherlin of Johns Hopkins University notes](. âThose who try to distinguish between the explanatory power of stagnant wages and a declining industrial base on the one hand, and anxieties about the ascent of minority groups on the other, miss the point,â Cherlin has written. âThese are not two different factors but two sides of the same coin.â
The last week has again highlighted that [racism is central to Trumpism](. His closing campaign message is [white nationalism](. But his racism has found an audience partly because of the deep economic frustrations that many Americans feel. Itâs one of the oldest and saddest themes in history: Frustration breeds bigotry.
Pearlsteinâs book is called, â[Can American Capitalism Survive?â]( and it is full of much more wisdom. Itâs the capstone of [decades of his reporting and writing]( on the subject. The chart on inequality and polarization appears on page 161.
More midterms. The tight Senate race in Missouri between Claire McCaskill, the Democratic incumbent, and Josh Hawley, the Republican, hasnât gotten quite as much attention as some other races. But itâs another important one. It has been the subject of two good recent pieces: [Nicholas Lemann]( profiles McCaskill in The New Yorker; and [Joe Nocera of Bloomberg Opinion]( (building off [an episode]( of The Daily podcast) argues that progressives have made a mistake by criticizing McCaskillâs abortion rhetoric.
The full Opinion report from The Times follows.
[What Kind of Democrat Can Beat Trump in 2020?](
Ben Wiseman
By FRANK BRUNI
The midterms will answer some questions, but not the biggest one of all.
From Our Columnists
[A Party Defined by Its Lies](
By PAUL KRUGMAN
At this point, good people canât be good Republicans.
[The Left Gets Triggered](
By MICHELLE GOLDBERG
Threats from the right inspire a new left-wing gun culture.
[The Retrenchment Election](
By DAVID BROOKS
Nobody is moving, just settling into place.
[Trumpâs Frightening Closing Argument](
Paige Vickers
By THE EDITORIAL BOARD
The president returns to campaign combat mode.
Contributing Op-Ed Writer
[The News Is Bad in Hungary](
By PAMELA DRUCKERMAN
Viktor Orban didnât like what the press was reporting, so he took it over.
Contributing Op-Ed Writer
[Blasphemy, Pakistanâs New Religion](
By MOHAMMED HANIF
The Supreme Court overturned the death sentence of a woman accused of insulting the Prophet. The people are not happy.
Contributing Op-Ed Writer
[My Love Affair With AM Radio](
By ERIN AUBRY KAPLAN
I hate that it has been so completely taken over by loud angry white guys. And yet late at night, I still listen.
[The Last Gasp of Northern Ireland](
By RICHARD SEYMOUR
A hard-line loyalist party has British politics in its death grip, because it knows that its cause is dying.
The Argument
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
[Whoâs to Blame for American Political Violence?](
And has our politics become polarized by gender?
Listen to [âThe Argumentâ podcast]( every Thursday morning, with Ross Douthat, Michelle Goldberg and David Leonhardt.
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