On Politics With Lisa Lerer: The Races Running the Most Ads

Which midterm contests are airing the most campaign spots; plus, new polling numbers, a big spend in N.J. and the latest from Opinion. [Trouble seeing this email? View in browser]( [The New York Times]( [The New York Times]( October 18, 2018 | Evening Edition [Lisa Lerer] Hi. Welcome to On Politics, your guide to the day in national politics. I’m Lisa Lerer, your host. Whenever I travel for a story, I love to watch the local news. Right now, I’m in Little Rock, Ark., doing some reporting (more on that to come), and as in a lot of places, I find myself bombarded by political ads. Honestly, Arkansas isn’t that bad because there just aren’t many tight races down here this year. But I was curious who was getting the worst of the political ad assault. So, we asked our friends at the Wesleyan Media Project, which tracks and analyzes ad spending, to sort out which Senate and House races had seen the most ads this cycle. ADVERTISEMENT In the Senate: 1. Indiana - 114,625 2. Florida - 102,786 3. Montana - 97,922 4. Missouri - 90,160 5. West Virginia - 75,974 In the House: 1. Montana (at large) - 65,500 2. Georgia 6th - 33,962 3. New York 22nd - 29,903 4. Maine 2nd - 24,603 5. Kentucky 6th - 20,200 Two things to keep in mind when you look at these numbers: First, we focused on the number of times an ad aired rather than the total amount spent. That’s because the costs can vary so much by location. For example, an ad in New Jersey, which hits the pricey New York and Philadelphia media markets, is far more expensive to air than a spot in, say, Montana. Second, two House races — Georgia and Montana — had special elections in this election cycle, which were counted in the total. That helps explain why they top the list. A lot of those ads were about health care, which has emerged as the dominant issue this election. Between Sept. 18 and Oct. 15, nearly half of ads in federal races, and about a third in governor’s contests, mentioned health care, according to [Kantar Media/CMAG, with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project](. Overall, Democrats were more prominent on the airwaves, a reflection of [their significant fund-raising advantage](. In that same span over the last month or so, Democrats ran 208,000 ads in House races, while Republicans ran 128,000. In the Senate, Democrats aired 171,000 ads, compared to 118,000 from Republicans. While I watch TV on the road, I’m a proud cord-cutter at home. Can’t say these numbers make me regret my decision! But, I’m always open to being wrong. If there are any fans of political ads out there, we’re all ears. Tell us why you love television’s most contentious time of year. ____________________ Earlier this week, we asked you to tell us the local issues that you’re thinking about, and voting on, in November. We’ve gotten some great responses already, but we want to hear from even more of you. What political issues are people talking about in your town, city or state? Email us at [onpolitics@nytimes.com](mailto:onpolitics@nytimes.com?te=1&nl=politics&emc=edit_cn_2018101820181018). We’ll use some of your responses in an upcoming newsletter. ____________________ Big money for Menendez Spencer Platt/Getty Images Nick Corasaniti, who covers New Jersey for The Times, sent us this update on the Senate race there: There’s been a bounty of polling in the New Jersey Senate race this month, and the whiplash variations have shown Senator Robert Menendez and Bob Hugin, his Republican challenger, in everything from a statistical tie to an 11-point lead for Mr. Menendez. It’s enough to confuse even the sharpest political observer. Just ask Senator Chuck Schumer. On Tuesday, Senate Majority PAC, the principal super PAC supporting Democratic efforts in the Senate, directed by Mr. Schumer, announced it was investing $3 million in the deeply blue Garden State to support Mr. Menendez. The next day, [a Quinnipiac University poll]( found Mr. Menendez leading Mr. Hugin 51 to 44 percent among likely voters, with women backing Mr. Menendez in outsize numbers. A [Monmouth University poll]( the day after that said Mr. Menendez had an even greater lead, 49-40. Some political observers began to wonder if Mr. Schumer erred in investing the $3 million in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972. We’re not entirely sure. Despite his apparent lead, Mr. Menendez has maintained significant unfavorable ratings. The Monmouth poll, for example, had him at 28 percent favorable and 45 percent unfavorable (what pollsters often call “underwater.”) A few New Jersey Democratic political operatives I spoke to this morning said they cannot remember a single race where a candidate who was that “underwater” maintained a significant lead. Read Nick’s latest story on the race: [Fact Check: Did Senator Menendez Hire Underage Prostitutes?]( ____________________ What’s new in Opinion Our colleagues from the Opinion Pages sent us this today, on the latest political pieces they’ve been working on: This week, Opinion columnists and writers have been wrestling with and expressing [uniform]( [horror]( at the killing of a colleague, the journalist Jamal Khashoggi. In The Argument [podcast]( Ross Douthat, Michelle Goldberg and David Leonhardt were joined by Tom Friedman to assess the geopolitical shock waves and international damage. In an [emotional Op-Ed]( Mr. Khashoggi’s fiancée, Hatice Cengiz, wrote about the personal damage: “He paid for the Saudi people’s demand for freedom with his own life.” With the midterms looming, wave metaphors were drawn in all shades and shapes: Is the blue wave crashing? Cresting? Is it even blue? In [The Conversation]( Ross Douthat and Frank Bruni discussed Hispanic voters, who are not a monolithic bloc and whose lack of turnout may shatter Democratic dreams. The political scientists Samara Klar and Yanna Krupnikov [focused on]( the conundrum of independent voters: To entice them, candidates “must dial down the anger and attacks” that motivate their hard-core partisans. In [his column]( Tom Edsall explores the shift of Democrats: “Well-educated whites, especially white women, are pushing the party decisively leftward.” The politics of 2020 also popped up in the midterm maelstrom. Opinion on Elizabeth Warren’s release of her DNA test results showing Native American ancestry was probably best summed up by Ross Douthat, who [called it]( a “fiasco.” The scholar Alondra Nelson [noted]( that “DNA markers cannot tell us who we really are because genetic data is technical and identity is social.” It was a “worrisome politicization of genetic ancestry.” [You can find more opinion pieces on politics here.]( ____________________ Today in live polls: N.J. and Texas Illustration by Grant Gold As the election nears, The Times’s [live polling project]( is talking to voters in some of the closest races. Today, Nate Cohn and the Upshot team highlighted a few polls happening right now: Republicans have controlled New Jersey’s 11th District since the mid-1980s, and President Trump won the district in 2016. So why is the Democrat Mikie Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot, [so far ahead in our polling]( Her favorability rating is phenomenal at 53 percent favorable and 19 percent unfavorable, the best of any Democrat we’ve polled. Across more than 50 of our polls, 58 percent of white registered voters say they’re “almost certain” to vote, compared with 50 percent of black registered voters and 43 percent of Hispanic voters. That partly explains why the Republican incumbent Will Hurd [is cruising in our polling]( in Texas’ 23rd District, one that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. It’s a majority Hispanic district that has tended to have some of the lowest turnout in the country. [You can see all our polling here.]( ____________________ What to read tonight • The other side of #MeToo: Eight men shared their stories of past sexual misconduct, and the regret they live with. [Read their stories here.]( • A Times analysis of social media shows Democrats are winning the fight for digital engagement in the midterms. Will that mean anything come Election Day? [Read about it here.]( • Have you noticed that ax-throwing bars are popping up all over? [Here’s the story behind them, from The Ringer.]( ____________________ On today’s calendar • Early voting begins for North Carolina. • There was a debate this afternoon in the Connecticut governor’s race. [Watch it here.]( • President Trump is holding a rally in Missoula, Mont., at 6:30 p.m. local time. ____________________ … Seriously With less than two weeks until Halloween, [here’s a cool (and spoooooky) thread]( of animal X-rays from the veterinary center at the Oregon Zoo. _____________________ Were you forwarded this newsletter? [Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox.]( Isabella Grullón Paz and Margaret Kramer contributed to this newsletter. Thanks for reading. Politics is more than what goes on inside the White House. On Politics brings you the people, issues and ideas reshaping our world. Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at [onpolitics@nytimes.com](mailto:onpolitics@nytimes.com?te=1&nl=politics&emc=edit_cn_2018101820181018). ADVERTISEMENT FOLLOW NYTimes [Facebook] [FACEBOOK]( [Twitter] [@nytimes]( Get more [NYTimes.com newsletters »]( | Get unlimited access to NYTimes.com and our NYTimes apps. [Subscribe »]( ABOUT THIS EMAIL You received this message because you signed up for NYTimes.com's Politics newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Manage Subscriptions]( | [Change Your Email]( | [Privacy Policy]( | [Contact]( | [Advertise]( Copyright 2018 The New York Times Company | 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018