Opinion: Alarmed about the midterms

The last two weeks of polling have been good for the Republicans. View in [Browser]( | Add nytdirect@nytimes.com to your address book. [The New York Times]( [The New York Times]( Friday, October 12, 2018 [NYTimes.com/Opinion »]( [David Leonhardt] David Leonhardt Op-Ed Columnist It’s time for some alarm about the midterms. The most recent polls have underscored the real possibility that Republicans will keep control of both the Senate and House. “On balance, it’s been a good 10 days of ... polling for the GOP in a lot of important battlegrounds,” [Nate Cohn]( The Times’s elections analyst, writes. Democrats now appear highly unlikely to take back the Senate, which was always going to be hard for them, given the conservatism of the states holding Senate elections this year. And while Democrats are still [favored]( to win the House, many races remain so close — with neither candidate yet polling above 50 percent — that they could break either way in the final weeks. It’s easy to see a scenario in which many Democratic-leaning voters fail to turn out, as often happens in the midterms, and many Republican-leaning voters remain loyal to the party. I use the word “alarm” here for a reason. Imagine how President Trump and the Republican leadership in Congress would respond to a victory in the midterms (even if that victory depended in part on gerrymandering and voter suppression). Trump would feel emboldened to continue his attacks on democratic values. He might order the Justice Department to go easy on his political allies. He might fire Robert Mueller and otherwise put a stop to the Russia investigation. Congressional Republicans might restart their efforts to take health insurance from millions of middle-class and poor people. The efforts to keep dark-skinned Americans from voting — like the current outrage in Georgia (which [Michelle Goldberg]( covers today) — might become more intense. The federal government’s stance on climate change would likely become even more damaging. The midterms are, [as The New Yorker’s David Remnick has written]( a “stress test of liberal democracy.” So why have the polls tightened? The fight over Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation appears to have nationalized the campaign, causing some Trump-skeptical Republican voters to return to the fold. That’s why Democrats and progressive activists need to change the subject away from divisive cultural debates and back to pocketbook issues. [E.J. Dionne]( of The Washington Post has a good related column, reported from Ohio, and [Michelle Cottle]( of The Times has made this case, too. (It’s also the subject of the second segment of our new podcast, “[The Argument.”]( A second challenge for Democrats is their apparent inability to win big margins among Hispanics. “The fact that Donald Trump is viewed in a relatively favorable light by as many as 1 in 4 Hispanic voters should be alarming for Democrats,” [León Krauze]( of Univision and Slate, writes, “but it’s not even their biggest problem. That would be turnout.” [Ron Brownstein]( of The Atlantic and CNN, quotes a pollster making a similar point. As the Cook Political Report’s [Dave Wasserman]( tweeted, “Why do Dems have a serious midterm problem w/ Hispanics? Lower-income/young/urban Hispanics just aren't that motivated to vote. And guess who’s left: higher-income/older/suburban Hispanics who aren’t nearly as reliably Dem.” It also [remains unclear]( how strong the turnout of younger voters will be. As [Ariel Edwards-Levy of HuffPost]( has noted, many Americans under 30 believe that people should not vote unless they’re well-informed about politics. Americans over 65 tend to believe all citizens should vote, regardless of how informed they are. All of which is to say: [Don’t confuse likelihood and certainty.]( The Republicans still could win the 2018 midterms, and I’m genuinely worried about the consequences of that. The full Opinion report from The Times follows, including [Susan Chira]( on the ideological consistency of conservative women. [Women Don’t Think Alike. Why Do We Think They Do?]( Damon Winter/The New York Times By SUSAN CHIRA Conservative supporters of the president and Brett Kavanaugh aren’t betraying their gender — they’re sticking with what they believe. From Our Columnists [Goodbye, Political Spin, Hello Blatant Lies]( By PAUL KRUGMAN Black is white, up is down, and Republicans are defenders of Medicare. 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