Opinion: It just got harder to fire Mueller

Doing so during a Supreme Court confirmation would create big problems. View in [Browser]( | Add nytdirect@nytimes.com to your address book. [The New York Times]( [The New York Times]( Thursday, July 12, 2018 [NYTimes.com/Opinion »]( [David Leonhardt] David Leonhardt Op-Ed Columnist It’s just become trickier for President Trump [to fire Robert Mueller]( anytime soon. Doing so during the Supreme Court confirmation process for Brett Kavanaugh — which is likely to last for at least two months — would create a set of problems for Trump that didn’t exist before. I count three main reasons: One, Trump clearly loves making Supreme Court nominations. They allow him to look presidential and to be bathed in praise by other Republicans. If he were to fire Mueller — the special counsel investigating Russian interference in the election — anytime in the coming weeks, the confirmation process would immediately lose its normalcy. It would be dominated by discussion of Mueller’s Russia investigation, which Trump loathes and makes him look like the opposite of a normal president. Two, firing Mueller could damage the Republicans’ chances of holding Congress in this year’s midterms. It’s true that most voters aren’t currently paying much attention to the Russia investigation. But if Trump tried to end that investigation, it would immediately create the kind of chaos that typically hurts the party in the White House. As is, the Supreme Court nomination has some real political advantages for Republicans. It unifies their base voters and reminds them of reasons to turn out. And it turns the discussion away from Trump, who remains unpopular. Finally, firing Mueller could damage Kavanaugh’s chances of confirmation. [As I’ve written before]( I would be very surprised if any Senate Republicans defected. But their margin for error is virtually zero. Losing a single senator could defeat the nomination. And the circus that would accompany the firing of Mueller could certainly imperil one vote. If you buy this logic, it means Mueller’s chances of remaining on the job through at least Labor Day have risen. And Labor Day is traditionally considered the start of the most intense period of a fall campaign, which would be another bad time for Trump to make a radical power grab. Trump is unlike any president of our lifetime — [less bound by law and custom]( [more dangerous to democracy](. So I certainly wouldn’t rule out the possibility of his firing Mueller over the next four months. But I do think it has become less likely. All of this creates yet another reason the midterms are so enormously important. If Republicans hold the House and Senate, imagine how emboldened Trump will feel. And imagine what he may do about the biggest threat to his presidency if he is feeling emboldened. Related: There are several reasons to believe the Mueller probe still has a ways to go. For example, Mueller has begun “tapping additional Justice Department resources for help with new legal battles,” [as Chris Strohm of Bloomberg wrote]( last week. Relative to past special investigations, the Mueller probe has still been brief, [as Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux has noted for FiveThirtyEight](. Inequality, continued. A new study on tax cuts — the subject of [yesterday’s newsletter]( — received a fair bit of attention yesterday. I recommend [this Twitter commentary from the economist Heather Boushey]( who runs the Washington Center for Equitable Growth. “We need to address economic inequality to save what’s best about our nation,” Boushey writes. “We need a tax system that supports strong, stable, and broad-based economic growth, not one that continues to reward the wealthiest Americans at the expense of everyone else.” The full Opinion report from The Times follows, including [Thomas Edsall on the growing gender gap in politics](. 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Offsides [This Is the England I Want to Win the World Cup]( By MUSA OKWONGA My relationship with the St. George Cross is best summed up by lyrics from Kendrick Lamar: “Loving you is complicated.” SIGN UP FOR OUR WORLD CUP NEWSLETTER Read [arguments and opinions]( on the social, political and economic issues around the World Cup, for football buffs and fair-weather fans alike. ADVERTISEMENT Letters [Trump and the Arts: No Show]( Readers discuss the cultural ways of White House occupants. HOW ARE WE DOING? We’d love your feedback on this newsletter. Please email thoughts and suggestions to [leonhardt@nytimes.com](mailto:leonhardt@nytimes.com?subject=Opinion%20Today%20Newsletter%20Feedback). 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