Opinion: A warning for Democrats

The latest polls have looked better for Republicans. Here’s why. View in [Browser]( | Add nytdirect@nytimes.com to your address book. [The New York Times]( [The New York Times]( Friday, January 19, 2018 [NYTimes.com/Opinion »]( [David Leonhardt] David Leonhardt Op-Ed Columnist The latest opinion polls contain a warning for Democrats — a warning relevant to the potential government shutdown. President Trump and the Republican Congress are still a long way from popular. But they’re more popular than they were just a few weeks ago. Trump’s approval rating is up to 40 percent [in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average]( from 36 percent in mid-December. It hadn’t been at 40 percent since May, [Nate Silver noted.]( On the generic-ballot question, which asks people which party they plan to vote for in this year’s congressional elections, the Democrats’ lead is down to [eight percentage points](. It was 13 points last month. What’s going on here? Two main things, I think. First, the Republicans have had some successes. They passed a tax bill, which, although unpopular, still conveyed a level of political competence that [likely cheered]( some Republican voters. Since the bill passed, it has also won praise from corporate executives, who have credited it ([not always accurately]( with encouraging job growth. Second, much of the country’s attention over the last few weeks has been on Trump personally — his fitness for office, after the publication of Michael Wolff’s book, and [his racism]( after his comments last week. By now, the pattern should be familiar: When Trump’s personal behavior is getting attention, even when it’s odious, he often benefits. Luigi Zingales of the University of Chicago explained this phenomenon in [a Times op-ed shortly after Trump’s election](. In the piece, Zingales compared Trump to Silvio Berlusconi, the former Italian prime minister. The Italian opposition, Zingales wrote, “was so rabidly obsessed with his personality that any substantive political debate disappeared; it focused only on personal attacks, the effect of which was to increase Mr. Berlusconi’s popularity. His secret was an ability to set off a Pavlovian reaction among his leftist opponents, which engendered instantaneous sympathy in most moderate voters. Mr. Trump is no different.” Berlusconi’s opponents fared much better when they treated him as a normal politician and criticized him on substance, Zingales explained — because Berlusconi’s agenda was unpopular. Sound familiar? Democrats fare best when they fight Trump on policy grounds that can win over swing voters. That ground [tends to be economic](. Trump favors government cuts and corporate deregulation that would hurt many Americans. He has also failed to deliver on his promises to bring back factory jobs. “If you are a Democrat, and you are not talking about this every day,” [Ronald Klain, the longtime Democratic operative, wrote]( referring to Trump’s broken promises to Carrier workers in Indiana, “you are not using the most effective argument we have.” A focus on economic issues will almost certainly be more effective than a focus on personality. But the question isn’t just personality versus policy. It’s also which kinds of policy Democrats emphasize. And economic issues are much more likely to be effective than cultural issues, even if Democrats rightly feel passionate about cultural issues like immigration and Trump’s racism. Matthew Yglesias [made this point well]( in Vox yesterday, also citing the recent Republican uptick in polls. “The question isn’t whether Trump is racist (he is),” [Yglesias tweeted]( summarizing his piece, “it’s whether harping on that is a good way to defeat racism.” His answer — which I agree with — is no. “If you want to help the people most severely victimized by Trumpism, you need to beat Trumpism at the polls,” he wrote. As for the potential shutdown: Democrats are absolutely right to insist on protection for the so-called Dreamers — immigrants brought to the United States illegally as children. And I understand why Senate Democrats view a potential government shutdown as their best leverage. But Democrats would also be wise to be honest with themselves about the political downsides here. Notably, Claire McCaskill of Missouri — who represents a state Trump carried in 2016, the kind of area the party will need to win to retake control of Congress — [seems concerned]( about a high-profile fight over immigration. It’s not the subject most likely to drive Trump’s approval rating back down into the 30s. The best question for Democrats to ask themselves may be: Can we protect the Dreamers without turning immigration into the country’s highest-profile political topic? Trump’s agenda. Dr. Esther Choo laid out, [in a series of tweets]( who will suffer from the Trump administration’s Medicaid changes: hard-working Americans doing their best to get by. This issue is one in which principled policy and smart politics are clearly aligned for Democrats. What about Wisconsin? In a special election this week in a Wisconsin state-legislature district, the Democrat won [a shocking victory](. The race is a reminder that Republicans remain very vulnerable. But I think it’s a mistake to dismiss the last few weeks of national polls in favor of a single local race. The full Opinion report from The Times follows, including responses to yesterday’s letters from Trump supporters. Letters [The Furor Over a Forum for Trump Fans]( Readers are sharply divided on whether running letters from Trump voters led to “better understanding” or was a misguided waste of space. Editorial [Here’s Another Fine Mess They’ve Gotten Us Into]( By THE EDITORIAL BOARD Once again, Trump and Congress cannot perform a basic task, preventing a government shutdown. Op-Ed Contributor [The Breakdown in Trust That Could Shut Down the Government]( By STEVE ISRAEL We’ve entered new territory. This isn’t how negotiation works. Op-Ed Columnist [With Climate Change, This Island Is Swallowed by the Sea]( By NICHOLAS KRISTOF You doubt climate change? Come to this island — but hurry, before it disappears. 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