From
nytimes.com
Email Address
nytdirect@nytimes.com
Sent On
Thu, Nov 9, 2017 01:29 PM
Email Preheader Text
Also: Election post-mortems. View in | Add nytdirect@nytimes.com to your address book. Thursday, Nov
HTML
Also: Election post-mortems.
View in [Browser]( | Add nytdirect@nytimes.com to your address book.
[The New York Times](
[The New York Times](
Thursday, November 9, 2017
[NYTimes.com/Opinion »](
[]
[David Leonhardt]
David Leonhardt
Op-Ed Columnist
At first, people talked about the Republicansâ plan for tax reform. Once most of the planâs reform elements disappeared, a more appropriate name seemed to be âtax cut.â But now that the billâs details are coming out, itâs time to update the name again. Hereâs my suggestion:
Paul Ryanâs 2017 Tax Increase on Middle-Class Families.
Amazingly, the bill released by House Republican leaders last week would increase taxes, on net, for families that have at least one child and make less than $100,000. That conclusion comes from a rigorous independent analysis of the bill, released yesterday afternoon [by the Tax Policy Center](.
It was one of two damaging evaluations of the bill that came out yesterday; the other came from the Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan arm of Congress. The budget office projected that the plan would increase the deficit by $1.7 trillion over the next decade, even more than Republican leaders had claimed.
Ultimately, Congress will need to find a way to pay those costs, and the most likely strategy will involve tax increases or benefit cuts for the middle class and poor. Put it all together, and this bill is a middle-class tax increase.
In effect, Ryan and other House leaders are proposing an enormous tax cut for the wealthy and then trying to hold down the billâs cost by raising taxes on middle-class and poor families. On average, households making at least $5 million would receive an annual tax cut of almost $300,000 once the bill was fully phased in.
The situation for the middle class is quite different.
A big reason is that personal exemptions â the $4,000 in income, per person, that families can write off â would disappear. The bill would increase standard deductions that all taxpayers can take, but the increase isnât large enough for many families to make up for the disappearance of per-person exemptions, as [Michael Linden]( of the Roosevelt Institute explained to me. [A Times editorial]( breaks down other parts of the bill that hurt the middle class.
The chart above breaks down the estimated changes for families with children, by income level. (I left out the top income groups from the chart, because their tax cuts are so large that every other bar in the chart becomes difficult to read.)
The cynicism of this proposal is jarring, even for anyone who is already cynical about Washington. After decades in which the middle class and poor have been struggling, congressional leaders want to raise taxes on many of them, all while claiming that the bill would do the opposite. A few days ago, Mitch McConnell, the Senate leader, [went so far as to say]( âAt the end of the day, nobody in the middle class is going to get a tax increase.â
The good news is that many people seem to have caught on. [Polling]( shows]( the bill to be highly unpopular, with many Americans correctly saying that it would help the wealthy rather than the middle class.
I expect Republicans to scramble in coming days to make the bill less bad for the middle class. Senate Republicans are reportedly meeting to talk about taxes this morning and may release their own bill shortly thereafter. But tweaks arenât enough. Anything less than an entirely new tax plan from the Senate isnât worth passing.
I mean, does the Paul Ryan Middle-Class Tax Increase sound as if itâs a good idea?
Election post-mortems. If youâre still giddy about the Democratsâ election wins this week, be sure to read [Nate Cohnâs Times analysis](.
âThe results Tuesday are fully consistent with a so-called wave election, like the ones that brought Democrats to power in the House in 2006 and back out in 2010,â Cohn writes. âThe catch, though, is that the overwhelming Democratic strength in well-educated areas did not cross the political divides of the 2016 election and reach into white working-class areas.â
Without more white support, the Democrats may not be able to win the House next year, he concludes.
Also: [Stuart Thompson and I used charts]( to explain how public opinion has changed in the year since Donald Trumpâs election victory, and [Gail Collins and Michelle Goldberg]( discussed yesterdayâs election results in a Facebook video.
The full Opinion report from The Times follows.
Editorial
[Want Kids, a Degree or a Home? The Tax Bill Would Cost You](
By THE EDITORIAL BOARD
An immense tax giveaway to the rich will hurt everyone else. Hereâs how.
Editorial
[Message to Mr. Trump: Weâre Better Than That](
By THE EDITORIAL BOARD
As he bitterly appeals only to the few Americans not repelled by his behavior, Democrats won with the politics of inclusiveness.
Op-Ed Columnist
[Resistance, for the Win!](
By CHARLES M. BLOW
Objecting to identity politics is just a guise for objecting to the politics of people who are not white.
Op-Ed Columnist
[Trumpâs Totally Terrible Time](
By GAIL COLLINS
On the plus side, some places didnât vote.
Op-Ed Columnist
[Pre-Trump vs. Post-Trump: How Americans Feel Now](
By DAVID LEONHARDT AND STUART A. THOMPSON
How has the national mood changed in the 365 days since Donald Trump was elected president?
Contributing Op-Ed Writer
[Republicans Wonder How to Make the Rich Richer](
By THOMAS B. EDSALL
The House tax bill championed by President Trump finds many different ways to increase inequality.
HOW ARE WE DOING?
Weâd love your feedback on this newsletter. Please email thoughts and suggestions to [leonhardt@nytimes.com](mailto:leonhardt@nytimes.com?subject=Opinion%20Today%20Newsletter%20Feedback).
ADVERTISEMENT
[President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump with President Xi Jinping, of China, and his wife Peng Liyuan during a tour of the Forbidden City, in Beijing.](
President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump with President Xi Jinping, of China, and his wife Peng Liyuan during a tour of the Forbidden City, in Beijing. Doug Mills/The New York Times
[Contributing Op-Ed Writer](
[Trump Is Ceding Global Leadership to China](
By ANTONY J. BLINKEN
If Americaâs retreat into nationalism, protectionism, unilateralism and xenophobia continues, Chinaâs model could carry the day.
Contributing Op-Ed Writer
[The Worrisome Future of Abortion Rights](
By LINDA GREENHOUSE
The Justice Department is becoming an outpost of the National Right to Life Committee.
Op-Ed Contributor
[Robert Gates: Ending DACA Will Hurt Immigrant Troops](
By ROBERT M. GATES
While I was secretary of defense, Dreamers played a vital role in the military. They have earned the right to become citizens.
Op-Ed Contributor
[Ajit Pai: Media Ownership Rules Must Adjust to the Digital Era](
By AJIT V. PAI
Repeal the rule that prevents companies from owning both a TV or radio station and a newspaper in the same market.
Op-Ed Contributor
[Donât Let Congress Cheat Workers Out of Basic Rights](
By CHRISTINE OWENS
The House just passed a bill that will roll back longstanding protections for contract workers to the benefit of big companies.
Op-Ed Contributor
[The End of Saudi-Style Stability](
By THOMAS W. LIPPMAN
With last weekendâs arrests of princes and business tycoons, the countryâs carefully constructed balance may be at risk.
Op-Ed Contributor
[How You Can Help Prevent Mass Shootings](
By KATHERINE SCHWEIT
âSee something, say somethingâ isnât a rousing battle cry. But it works.
[Diana Nyad: My Life After Sexual Assault](
[Diana Nyad at 61, during training for a swim from Key West, Fla., to Cuba.](
Diana Nyad at 61, during training for a swim from Key West, Fla., to Cuba. Jeffery Salter/Redux
By DIANA NYAD
Iâm almost 70. And Iâm still not sure Iâll ever fully heal from what my coach did.
LIKE THIS EMAIL?
Forward it to your friends, and let them know they can sign up [here](.
ADVERTISEMENT
Loose Ends
[More âEveryday Objectsâ From Tiffany](
By BARI WEISS
The luxury company is selling a ball of yarn for $9,000. Herewith, some other products it might soon unveil.
The Conscience of a Liberal
[Leprechaun Economics and Neo-Lafferism](
By PAUL KRUGMAN
The growth case for tax cuts is even more pathetic than you thought.
Letters
[After the Election, Joy Among Democrats](
Letter writers saw the election as a good omen for the 2018 midterms. One reader âbroke into my happy danceâ upon hearing the results.
SIGN UP FOR THE VIETNAM â67 NEWSLETTER
Examining Americaâs long war in Southeast Asia [through the course]( of a single year.
FOLLOW OPINION
[Facebook] [FACEBOOK](
[Twitter] [@nytopinion](
[Pinterest] [Pinterest](
Get more [NYTimes.com newsletters »]( Â
|
Get unlimited access to NYTimes.com and our NYTimes apps. [Subscribe »](
ABOUT THIS EMAIL
You received this message because you signed up for NYTimes.com's Opinion Today newsletter.
[Unsubscribe]( | [Manage Subscriptions]( | [Change Your Email]( | [Privacy Policy]( | [Contact]( | [Advertise](
Copyright 2017 The New York Times Company
620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018
EDM Keywords (139)
yesterday
yarn
write
win
week
wealthy
way
washington
update
tweaks
tv
trying
training
tour
together
time
tiffany
thompson
taxpayers
taxes
talk
take
swim
sure
suggestions
stuart
still
situation
signed
sign
senate
selling
secretary
scramble
say
rule
robert
right
rich
retreat
repelled
received
read
reach
proposing
proposal
products
princes
power
poor
politics
plan
places
people
pay
pathetic
passed
parts
owning
outpost
opposite
ones
one
objecting
newspaper
net
need
name
morning
military
message
mean
many
make
love
like
life
let
left
large
know
increase
hurt
house
home
hold
guise
going
get
gates
friends
find
feedback
far
families
explain
every
even
end
email
election
earned
disappearance
details
degree
deficit
decades
cynicism
cross
course
country
costs
cost
conscience
congress
coming
coach
claiming
china
children
chart
charles
changed
caught
came
breaks
bill
better
benefit
becoming
bar
ball
back
arrests
anyone
americans
america
able
61
2006