Opinion Today: Would you play poker against Kamala Harris?

Nate Silver sees strong risk management from the current Democratic campaign. [View in browser](~/AAAAAQA~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~)|[nytimes.com](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0SxaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjQwODIxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzMjI0MyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzU2OTQmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCma6G9jFZm_2N05SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0SlaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMTM5JmxpPVRZJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1UWV8yMDI0MDgyMSZzdHBlPWRlZmF1bHQmdGU9MSZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjQwODIxVwNueXRCCma6G9jFZm_2N05SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Opinion Today](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0TAaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vc2VjdGlvbi9vcGluaW9uP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjQwODIxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzMjI0MyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzU2OTQmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCma6G9jFZm_2N05SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) August 21, 2024 [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0SmaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTA4MDgzOSZsaT1UWSZtPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3JnA9VFlfMjAyNDA4MjEmc3RwZT1kZWZhdWx0JnRlPTEmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDI0MDgyMVcDbnl0QgpmuhvYxWZv9jdOUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [Author Headshot] By John Guida Senior Staff Editor, Opinion Through his previous work at FiveThirtyEight and The New York Times and his current newsletter, [Silver Bulletin](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0S0aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubmF0ZXNpbHZlci5uZXQvP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjQwODIxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzMjI0MyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzU2OTQmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCma6G9jFZm_2N05SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~), Nate Silver has been a keen, even obsessive observer of politics, well known for his application of quantitative methods to assess potential election outcomes. As a professional poker player, he has also been fascinated by risk and by risk-takers. In a new [guest essay](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0TlaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOC8yMC9vcGluaW9uL2thbWFsYS1oYXJyaXMtZGVtb2NyYXRzLXJpc2suaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDI0MDgyMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzIyNDMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc1Njk0JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpmuhvYxWZv9jdOUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~), we at Times Opinion asked him to combine those passions and take a look at the twists and turns of the 2024 presidential race through the lens of risk-taking. Above all, he was struck by a surprising development: The biggest risk of the race so far — the Democrats’ switch of candidates from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris — came from what was previously the more risk-averse player. Silver has a new book out, “[On the Edge](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0TlaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOC8xMi9ib29rcy9yZXZpZXcvb24tdGhlLWVkZ2UtbmF0ZS1zaWx2ZXIuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDI0MDgyMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzIyNDMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc1Njk0JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpmuhvYxWZv9jdOUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~): The Art of Risking Everything,” and it outlines two camps of elites and their relationships to risk. One he dubs the risk-taking River (think Silicon Valley, Wall Street, sports betting, crypto) and the other the risk-averse Village (the East Coast technocratic expert class in government and other institutions, mainstream media, academia). In his reckoning, the Village is more or less Democratic. But by making the move at the head of their ticket, as Silver writes, Democrats “roughly doubled their chances of winning, from Mr. Biden’s 27 percent chance in my election forecast model at the time he withdrew from the race to Ms. Harris’s 54 percent the week of the Democratic National Convention.” If the convention is a success, Silver notes that Harris may emerge as a perceived front-runner — which could bring new pitfalls and risks to manage, like complacency. So far, he writes, she has “defied the Village stereotype by acting cool under pressure.” From Silver, it is a high compliment. His book lays out what he sees as the 13 habits of highly successful risk-takers. No. 1 on that list: “cool under pressure.” [Read the guest essay:](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0TlaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOC8yMC9vcGluaW9uL2thbWFsYS1oYXJyaXMtZGVtb2NyYXRzLXJpc2suaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDI0MDgyMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzIyNDMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc1Njk0JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpmuhvYxWZv9jdOUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0TlaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOC8yMC9vcGluaW9uL2thbWFsYS1oYXJyaXMtZGVtb2NyYXRzLXJpc2suaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDI0MDgyMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzIyNDMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc1Njk0JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpmuhvYxWZv9jdOUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~ [In a photo illustration, Kamala Harris is walking on a tightrope. ] Illustration by Sam Whitney/The New York Times Guest Essay I Have Been Studying Poker for Years. Kamala Harris Isn’t Bluffing. So far in the 2024 election, the party known for aversion to risk has been making better risk-management decisions. By Nate Silver [Ad] [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0SkaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9NTk3ODUmbGk9VFkmbT1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZwPVRZXzIwMjQwODIxJnN0cGU9ZGVmYXVsdCZ0ZT0xJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyNDA4MjFXA255dEIKZrob2MVmb_Y3TlIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0SkaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9NTk3ODUmbGk9VFkmbT1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkNyZwPVRZXzIwMjQwODIxJnN0cGU9ZGVmYXVsdCZ0ZT0xJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyNDA4MjFXA255dEIKZrob2MVmb_Y3TlIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) Here’s what we’re focusing on today: Editors’ Picks [An illustration including photos of Doug Emhoff and Michelle Obama.](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0TwaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOC8yMS9vcGluaW9uL3Njb3JlY2FyZC1uaWdodC0yLWRlbW9jcmF0aWMtY29udmVudGlvbi5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjQwODIxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzMjI0MyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzU2OTQmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCma6G9jFZm_2N05SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~)[Guest Essay He Tried to ‘Walk the Line Between Elder Statesman and Queen Maker’: The Best and Worst Moments From Night 2 of the Convention Here’s what our columnists and contributors thought of the event, which included speeches by Bernie Sanders, Chuck Schumer, Doug Emhoff and Michelle and Barack Obama. By New York Times Opinion](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0TwaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOC8yMS9vcGluaW9uL3Njb3JlY2FyZC1uaWdodC0yLWRlbW9jcmF0aWMtY29udmVudGlvbi5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjQwODIxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzMjI0MyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzU2OTQmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCma6G9jFZm_2N05SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) More From Opinion [A photograph of Michelle Obama, on stage at the Democratic National Convention.](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0TraHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vbGl2ZS8yMDI0LzA4LzIwL29waW5pb24vdGhlcG9pbnQvbWljaGVsbGUtb2JhbWEtZG5jLXNwZWVjaD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDI0MDgyMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzIyNDMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc1Njk0JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpmuhvYxWZv9jdOUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~)[Michelle Obama Absolutely Takes Apart Donald Trump No doublespeak, no metaphors — just straight talk. By Tressie McMillan Cottom](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0TraHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vbGl2ZS8yMDI0LzA4LzIwL29waW5pb24vdGhlcG9pbnQvbWljaGVsbGUtb2JhbWEtZG5jLXNwZWVjaD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDI0MDgyMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzIyNDMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc1Njk0JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpmuhvYxWZv9jdOUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [A photograph of Matthew Perry with scribble marks to the left of him.](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0ToaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOC8yMS9vcGluaW9uL21hdHRldy1wZXJyeS1hc3Npc3RhbnQtb3ZlcmRvc2UuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDI0MDgyMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzIyNDMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc1Njk0JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpmuhvYxWZv9jdOUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~)[Guest Essay Celebrity Assistants Have an Impossible Job. I Know, Because I Was One. I was Harvey Weinstein’s assistant. I understand all too well the toxic nature of the relationship between celebrities and the people they employ. By Rowena Chiu](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0ToaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOC8yMS9vcGluaW9uL21hdHRldy1wZXJyeS1hc3Npc3RhbnQtb3ZlcmRvc2UuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDI0MDgyMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzIyNDMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc1Njk0JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpmuhvYxWZv9jdOUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [Donald Trump, wearing an ear bandage, clasps his hands together at the Republican National Convention.](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0TfaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOC8yMS9vcGluaW9uL3RydW1wLXNlY29uZC10ZXJtLTIwMjUuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDI0MDgyMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzIyNDMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc1Njk0JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpmuhvYxWZv9jdOUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~)[Guest Essay Trump Is Not Done With Us The damage inflicted on the nation during the former president’s first term in office pales in comparison to what he will do if he is elected to a second term. By Thomas B. Edsall](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0TfaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOC8yMS9vcGluaW9uL3RydW1wLXNlY29uZC10ZXJtLTIwMjUuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDI0MDgyMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzIyNDMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc1Njk0JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpmuhvYxWZv9jdOUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [Against a green background, Starbucks cups are ground in the teeth of three gears.](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0TjaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOC8yMS9vcGluaW9uL3N0YXJidWNrcy11bmlvbi1nb3Zlcm5tZW50Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyNDA4MjEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTMyMjQzJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3NTY5NCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZrob2MVmb_Y3TlIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD)[Guest Essay In a Union Triumph, the Seeds of Future Failure The U.S. government’s arduous efforts to back the Starbucks campaign may be impossible to replicate. By Matt Bruenig](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0TjaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOC8yMS9vcGluaW9uL3N0YXJidWNrcy11bmlvbi1nb3Zlcm5tZW50Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyNDA4MjEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTMyMjQzJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3NTY5NCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZrob2MVmb_Y3TlIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [A photograph of a person examining the body of another person.](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0TmaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOC8yMS9vcGluaW9uL21wb3gtdmFjY2luZXMtYWZyaWNhLXBhbmRlbWljLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyNDA4MjEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTMyMjQzJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3NTY5NCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZrob2MVmb_Y3TlIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD)[Guest Essay Where Are the Mpox Vaccines? Africa has nowhere near the doses it needs to curb the outbreak. By Lawrence Gostin, Sam Halabi and Alexandra Finch](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0TmaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOC8yMS9vcGluaW9uL21wb3gtdmFjY2luZXMtYWZyaWNhLXBhbmRlbWljLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyNDA4MjEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTMyMjQzJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3NTY5NCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZrob2MVmb_Y3TlIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [An illustration depicting a father and two children sitting in a dusty field. In the distance is the silhouette of a man giving a speech.](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0ThaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOC8yMS9vcGluaW9uL3dhbHotdmFuY2UtcnVyYWwtbWlkd2VzdC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjQwODIxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzMjI0MyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzU2OTQmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCma6G9jFZm_2N05SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~)[Guest Essay Vance Thinks He Knows Rural America. Walz Begs to Differ. The Minnesota governor experienced just how much small towns and farming communities rely on public institutions like schools and hospitals. By Ted Genoways](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0ThaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOC8yMS9vcGluaW9uL3dhbHotdmFuY2UtcnVyYWwtbWlkd2VzdC5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjQwODIxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzMjI0MyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzU2OTQmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCma6G9jFZm_2N05SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [A photograph of Shawn Fain speaking to the Democratic National Convention.](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0TuaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vbGl2ZS8yMDI0LzA4LzIwL29waW5pb24vdGhlcG9pbnQvYXV0by13b3JrZXJzLWhhcnJpcy1jYW1wYWlnbj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDI0MDgyMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzIyNDMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc1Njk0JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpmuhvYxWZv9jdOUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~)[History Shows How Autoworkers Could Be Crucial for Harris Especially given Trump’s admiration for breaking strikes. By Jonathan Alter](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0TuaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vbGl2ZS8yMDI0LzA4LzIwL29waW5pb24vdGhlcG9pbnQvYXV0by13b3JrZXJzLWhhcnJpcy1jYW1wYWlnbj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDI0MDgyMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzIyNDMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc1Njk0JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpmuhvYxWZv9jdOUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [Ad] [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0SlaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MjAxODEyJmxpPVRZJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1UWV8yMDI0MDgyMSZzdHBlPWRlZmF1bHQmdGU9MSZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjQwODIxVwNueXRCCma6G9jFZm_2N05SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0SlaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MjAxODEyJmxpPVRZJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1UWV8yMDI0MDgyMSZzdHBlPWRlZmF1bHQmdGU9MSZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjQwODIxVwNueXRCCma6G9jFZm_2N05SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0TxaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOC8yMC9vcGluaW9uL2V6cmEta2xlaW4tcG9kY2FzdC1kZW1vY3JhdGljLWNvbnZlbnRpb24uaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDI0MDgyMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzIyNDMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc1Njk0JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpmuhvYxWZv9jdOUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~[The Ezra Klein Show Democrats Don’t Think They Have This Election Won The Democratic Party has bridged huge divides since 2020. Can it win?](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0TxaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOC8yMC9vcGluaW9uL2V6cmEta2xlaW4tcG9kY2FzdC1kZW1vY3JhdGljLWNvbnZlbnRpb24uaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0zOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF90eV8yMDI0MDgyMSZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMzIyNDMmbmw9b3Bpbmlvbi10b2RheSZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTc1Njk0JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpmuhvYxWZv9jdOUht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [play button] 32 MIN LISTEN [The Protests in Chicago Aren’t Unruly Enough for the Right Wing There’s not enough disorder, so some right-wing influencers are pretending the streets are in chaos. By Zeynep Tufekci](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0TtaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vbGl2ZS8yMDI0LzA4LzIwL29waW5pb24vdGhlcG9pbnQvY2hpY2Fnby1wcm90ZXN0cy1yaWdodC13aW5nP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTM5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3R5XzIwMjQwODIxJmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEzMjI0MyZubD1vcGluaW9uLXRvZGF5JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzU2OTQmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCma6G9jFZm_2N05SG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoqF0bP0TpaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wOC8yMC9vcGluaW9uL2xldHRlcnMvYmlkZW5zLXNwZWVjaC1jb252ZW50aW9uLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MzkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdHlfMjAyNDA4MjEmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTMyMjQzJm5sPW9waW5pb24tdG9kYXkmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3NTY5NCZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZrob2MVmb_Y3TlIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD Eric Lee/The New York Times letters Biden’s Speech as Convention Begins Readers react to his speech and offer advice for the Democrats. Also: G.O.P. After Trump; funding for maintenance; taxing tips; imperfect summer. We hope you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. 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