Opinion: A Willie Horton-style campaign in Virginia

Also: A very encouraging health care deal. View in [Browser]( | Add nytdirect@nytimes.com to your address book. [The New York Times]( [The New York Times]( Wednesday, October 18, 2017 [NYTimes.com/Opinion »]( [David Leonhardt] David Leonhardt Op-Ed Columnist First: The bipartisan health care deal in the Senate, [announced yesterday]( is a very good deal. It undoes two of [President Trump’s attempts to sabotage the law]( by reinstating reimbursement payments to insurers and by encouraging people to sign up for insurance. It also gives states some more flexibility, a longtime conservative priority. Perhaps above all, it’s a sign that some leading Republicans are finally serious about trying to improve the health care system. The deal, John McCain [said]( “shows that good faith, bipartisan negotiations can achieve consensus on lasting reform.” Democratic-leaning experts were full of [praise]( for it too, [saying]( that, while it didn’t void all of Trump’s mischief, it was major progress. Jacob Leibenluft, a former Obama adviser, [called]( the deal the “first concession” from Republicans that “they will own health care markets in 2018 and 2020.” The biggest caveat: The deal — between Patty Murray, a Washington Democrat, and Lamar Alexander, a Tennessee Republican — is still just a framework. It must pass both houses of Congress and be signed by Trump. An ugly, and close, campaign. Virginia and New Jersey are the only states to hold their governor elections the year after presidential elections, which turns the two states into gauges of a new president’s popularity. This year in New Jersey, the Democrat — Phil Murphy, an ambassador to Germany under President Obama — is [far ahead](. But Virginia is another matter, and it offers a warning for Democratic overconfidence outside reliably blue areas. In Virginia, the Democrat — Ralph Northam, the lieutenant governor — has held only [a narrow lead in most polls](. The Republican — Ed Gillespie, a former chairman of the Republican National Committee — grabbed a 1-point lead in a much-discussed new poll yesterday (although Northam still led in two other polls released the same day). My advice is not to get caught up in any one poll and instead consider the race to be very tight. Its tightness is alarming, because Gillespie [has abandoned his calls for an inclusive Republican Party]( and is running a nasty, ethnocentric campaign. A few of his television ads ludicrously [link]( Northam to the Central American gang MS-13. Beyond those ads, Gillespie likes to issue dark warnings about illegal immigrants. He has also emphasized the need to keep Confederate statues standing. And he has hired a former Trump campaign operative who, as The Washington Post [notes]( “has warned that the country is on the brink of civil war and that communists are behind the effort to take down Confederate statues.” Gillespie, in short, is running a campaign that mixes [Willie Horton-style]( race-baiting with a Trumpist affinity for the Confederacy — and Gillespie may win. For more on the race, you can read: Dave Wasserman, on Twitter, [criticizing]( the Northam campaign for neglecting rural voters; [Harry Enten]( arguing at FiveThirtyEight that the campaign is a flawed measure of the national mood; and The Times’s [Paul Krugman]( calling Virginia “the most important place on the U.S. political landscape.” In The Times. “I witnessed misogyny at all levels of my six years in the military,” [writes Supriya Venkatesan]( an Army veteran. The full Opinion report from The Times follows, including Douglas Schoen arguing that [Democrats need Wall Street](. Editorial [Mr. Trump Outdoes Himself in Picking a Conflicted Regulator]( By THE EDITORIAL BOARD The nominee to lead the E.P.A. chemicals office is a threat to public health. Op-Ed Columnist [Will Pumpkin Spice Destroy Us All?]( By FRANK BRUNI It’s odoriferous. It’s insidious. It’s America. Op-Ed Columnist [What’s the Matter With Republicans?]( By ROSS DOUTHAT How the party of Trump became a liberal caricature. Op-Ed Columnist [The Trump Doctrine]( By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN The president’s approach is: Rip things apart without thought and leave the problem to someone else. Op-Ed Columnist [Trump’s Self-Absorption on War Deaths]( By ANDREW ROSENTHAL Like the rich couple in “The Great Gatsby,” the president is exceedingly careless about just about everyone except himself — including slain soldiers. ADVERTISEMENT Contributing Op-Ed Writer [Yes, This Is a Witch Hunt. I’m a Witch and I’m Hunting You.]( By LINDY WEST Sorry, Woody Allen. I know you hate rumor mills, but sometimes they’re our only recourse. Op-Ed Contributor [Military Women, Too, Should Serve Unmolested]( By SUPRIYA VENKATESAN Misogyny and abuse is rampant in society. But the military is well equipped stop it in its own ranks. Anthony Russo [Op-Ed Contributor]( [Why Democrats Need Wall Street]( By DOUGLAS SCHOEN Financial firms are big donors, and the backbone of the American economy. Editorial [With a Journalist’s Murder in Malta, a Global Threat Grows]( By THE EDITORIAL BOARD Powerful and corrupt leaders throughout the world have endangered forceful reporters like Daphne Caruana Galizia. Editorial [Ending Cash-Register Justice]( By THE EDITORIAL BOARD Towns across the country hand out fines for minor infractions and jail anyone too poor to pay. It’s time for more judges to speak out. Op-Ed Contributors [Protect Alaska’s Last Great Wilderness From Oil Drilling]( By MARTIN ROBARDS AND GEORGE SCHALLER Republicans are using the budget process to allow resource extraction in the pristine Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Op-Ed Contributor [A Roadmap for Catalonia]( By MIQUEL ICETA The central government in Madrid and the Catalan Parliament have painted themselves into a corner. Here is a way out. Op-Ed Contributrors [The Law Is on the N.F.L. Players’ Side]( By BENJAMIN SACHS AND NOAH ZATZ Stifling the protests would be illegal. Op-Ed Contributor [The Booker Prize’s Bad History]( By NATALIE HOPKINSON It’s an award funded by the labor of enslaved people. On Campus [When Conservatives Suppress Campus Speech]( By KASHANA CAULEY The University of Wisconsin’s anti-protest policy shows it’s more worried about protecting conservative opinions than student expression. Contributing Opinion Writer [Ireland’s Transition, and Mine]( By JENNIFER FINNEY BOYLAN The country has come a long way on L.G.B.T.Q. rights since I was there in the 1990s. Op-Docs [Gay and in Love at an Evangelical College]( By JARED CALLAHAN AND RUSSELL SHEAFFER What do you do when your relationship conflicts with your religion? SIGN UP FOR THE VIETNAM ’67 NEWSLETTER Examining America’s long war in Southeast Asia [through the course]( of a single year. ADVERTISEMENT Letters [Blythe Danner and Martha Plimpton, on Harvey Weinstein]( The two actresses discuss sexual assault in the entertainment and other industries. Ms. Danner defends how her daughter, Gwyneth Paltrow, handled it. HOW ARE WE DOING? We’d love your feedback on this newsletter. Please email thoughts and suggestions to [opinionnewsletter@nytimes.com](mailto:opinionnewsletter@nytimes.com?subject=Opinion%20Today%20Newsletter%20Feedback). FOLLOW OPINION [Facebook] [FACEBOOK]( [Twitter] [@nytopinion]( [Pinterest] [Pinterest]( Get more [NYTimes.com newsletters »](  | Get unlimited access to NYTimes.com and our NYTimes apps. [Subscribe »]( ABOUT THIS EMAIL You received this message because you signed up for NYTimes.com's Opinion Today newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Manage Subscriptions]( | [Change Your Email]( | [Privacy Policy]( | [Contact]( | [Advertise]( Copyright 2017 The New York Times Company 620 Eighth Avenue New York, NY 10018