Upshot: This poll is an outlier (but it could be right)

Also: Debut of polling tracker [View in browser](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoX__8P4Q4AWh0dHBzOi8vbWVzc2FnaW5nLWN1c3RvbS1uZXdzbGV0dGVycy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS9keW5hbWljL3JlbmRlcj9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDI0MDYyNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMjczMjUmaXNWaWV3SW5Ccm93c2VyPXRydWUmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZwYWlkX3JlZ2k9MCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTcwNjg3JnRlPTEmdXJpPW55dCUzQSUyRiUyRm5ld3NsZXR0ZXIlMkZjMGMxMTRlOS1jNzRkLTU0M2QtODgwOC01Y2VkMjFjZWIwYTcmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpmdPx6fWbM9zN5Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~)|[nytimes.com](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoX__8P0SuaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjQwNjI3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEyNzMyNSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzA2ODcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmZ0_Hp9Zsz3M3lSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoX__8P0SiaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMDE0JmxpPVVQJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1VUF8yMDI0MDYyNyZzdHBlPWRlZmF1bHQmdGU9MSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjQwNjI3VwNueXRCCmZ0_Hp9Zsz3M3lSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [The Upshot](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoX__8P0SzaHR0cDovL3d3dy5ueXRpbWVzLmNvbS91cHNob3Q_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyNDA2MjcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTI3MzI1Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3MDY4NyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZnT8en1mzPczeVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) June 27, 2024 [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoX__8P0SjaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTA4MDgxOSZsaT1VUCZtPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3JnA9VVBfMjAyNDA2Mjcmc3RwZT1kZWZhdWx0JnRlPTEmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDI0MDYyN1cDbnl0QgpmdPx6fWbM9zN5Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) ~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoX__8P0TdaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wNi8yNi91cHNob3QvYmlkZW4tdHJ1bXAtcG9sbC1vdXRsaWVyLmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyNDA2MjcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTI3MzI1Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3MDY4NyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZnT8en1mzPczeVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD Michelle Gustafson for The New York Times Outlier Poll Results Are Inevitable. They’re Also Sometimes Right. The latest Times/Siena survey shows Trump up by six points among registered voters and three among likely voters. By Nate Cohn Feedback For suggestions on how we can improve this newsletter, write to [theupshotnewsletter@nytimes.com](mailto:theupshotnewsletter@nytimes.com?subject=Upshot%20Newsletter%20Feedback). If you have a compelling data set you’d like us to pursue, send it to [dear.upshot@nytimes.com](mailto:dear.upshot@nytimes.com?subject=Upshot%20Newsletter%20Feedback). WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS FROM UPSHOT AND FRIENDS [[Article Image] Jay Janner/Austin American-Statesman, via Associated Press](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoX__8P0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wNi8yNi91cHNob3QvdGV4YXMtYWJvcnRpb24taW5mYW50LW1vcnRhbGl0eS5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjQwNjI3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEyNzMyNSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzA2ODcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmZ0_Hp9Zsz3M3lSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [In Texas, Infant Mortality Rose After Abortion Ban Deaths of infants in the state increased by 13 percent in 2022, a study found, driven by fatal birth defects. By Claire Cain Miller](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoX__8P0TkaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wNi8yNi91cHNob3QvdGV4YXMtYWJvcnRpb24taW5mYW50LW1vcnRhbGl0eS5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjQwNjI3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEyNzMyNSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzA2ODcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmZ0_Hp9Zsz3M3lSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Article Image](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoX__8P0TgaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyNC91cy9lbGVjdGlvbnMvcG9sbHMtcHJlc2lkZW50Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyNDA2MjcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTI3MzI1Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3MDY4NyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZnT8en1mzPczeVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [Election 2024 Polls: Biden vs. Trump Our polling averages track the latest trends in the presidential race, using data from national and battleground state polls.](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoX__8P0TgaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyNC91cy9lbGVjdGlvbnMvcG9sbHMtcHJlc2lkZW50Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyNDA2MjcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTI3MzI1Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3MDY4NyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZnT8en1mzPczeVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [[Article Image] Karl Russell](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoX__8P0TzaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyNC8wNi8yNi9idXNpbmVzcy9lY29ub215L2luZmxhdGlvbi1yYXRlLW92ZXItdGltZS5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjQwNjI3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEyNzMyNSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzA2ODcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmZ0_Hp9Zsz3M3lSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Inflation’s Wild Ride As the presidential election approaches, politicians are focused on who is to blame for price increases. How did we get here? By Jeanna Smialek, Karl Russell and Lazaro Gamio](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoX__8P0TzaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vaW50ZXJhY3RpdmUvMjAyNC8wNi8yNi9idXNpbmVzcy9lY29ub215L2luZmxhdGlvbi1yYXRlLW92ZXItdGltZS5odG1sP2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjQwNjI3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEyNzMyNSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzA2ODcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmZ0_Hp9Zsz3M3lSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Ad] [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoX__8P0SiaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMDExJmxpPVVQJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1VUF8yMDI0MDYyNyZzdHBlPWRlZmF1bHQmdGU9MSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjQwNjI3VwNueXRCCmZ0_Hp9Zsz3M3lSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) [Ad](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoX__8P0SiaHR0cHM6Ly9saXZlaW50ZW50Lm5ld3lvcmt0aW1lc2luZm8uY29tL2NsaWNrP3M9MTYyMDExJmxpPVVQJm09YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDcmcD1VUF8yMDI0MDYyNyZzdHBlPWRlZmF1bHQmdGU9MSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjQwNjI3VwNueXRCCmZ0_Hp9Zsz3M3lSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~) We hope you’ve enjoyed this newsletter, which is made possible through subscriber support. 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By Nate Cohn](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoX__8P0TiaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vMjAyNC8wNi8yNS91cHNob3QvaW50cm9kdWNpbmctMjAyNC1wb2xsLXRyYWNrZXIuaHRtbD9jYW1wYWlnbl9pZD0yOSZlbWM9ZWRpdF91cF8yMDI0MDYyNyZpbnN0YW5jZV9pZD0xMjczMjUmbmw9dGhlLXVwc2hvdCZyZWdpX2lkPTc3Njc0OTUyJnNlZ21lbnRfaWQ9MTcwNjg3JnRlPTEmdXNlcl9pZD1hYTQ5MWVmN2YxZDk2NGU0OTc5ZmI3ODRlNzRlMDFkN1cDbnl0QgpmdPx6fWbM9zN5Uht0cmlzdHJhbWJhbGR3aW45MEBnbWFpbC5jb21YBAAAAAM~) [[Article Image] Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoX__8P0TgaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYXJ0aWNsZS9lbGVjdGlvbi1wb2xsaW5nLWF2ZXJhZ2VzLW1ldGhvZG9sb2d5Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyNDA2MjcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTI3MzI1Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3MDY4NyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZnT8en1mzPczeVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) [Methodology: How The Times Calculates 2024 Polling Averages An average of surveys may sound straightforward, but even a simple approach faces a series of choices. By Nate Cohn](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoX__8P0TgaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vYXJ0aWNsZS9lbGVjdGlvbi1wb2xsaW5nLWF2ZXJhZ2VzLW1ldGhvZG9sb2d5Lmh0bWw_Y2FtcGFpZ25faWQ9MjkmZW1jPWVkaXRfdXBfMjAyNDA2MjcmaW5zdGFuY2VfaWQ9MTI3MzI1Jm5sPXRoZS11cHNob3QmcmVnaV9pZD03NzY3NDk1MiZzZWdtZW50X2lkPTE3MDY4NyZ0ZT0xJnVzZXJfaWQ9YWE0OTFlZjdmMWQ5NjRlNDk3OWZiNzg0ZTc0ZTAxZDdXA255dEIKZnT8en1mzPczeVIbdHJpc3RyYW1iYWxkd2luOTBAZ21haWwuY29tWAQAAAAD) Like this email? Forward it to your friends, and let them know they can sign up [here](~/AAAAAQA~/RgRoX__8P0TAaHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1lcy5jb20vbmV3c2xldHRlcnMvdXBzaG90P2NhbXBhaWduX2lkPTI5JmVtYz1lZGl0X3VwXzIwMjQwNjI3Jmluc3RhbmNlX2lkPTEyNzMyNSZubD10aGUtdXBzaG90JnJlZ2lfaWQ9Nzc2NzQ5NTImc2VnbWVudF9pZD0xNzA2ODcmdGU9MSZ1c2VyX2lkPWFhNDkxZWY3ZjFkOTY0ZTQ5NzlmYjc4NGU3NGUwMWQ3VwNueXRCCmZ0_Hp9Zsz3M3lSG3RyaXN0cmFtYmFsZHdpbjkwQGdtYWlsLmNvbVgEAAAAAw~~). Need help? 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