re: September Economic Spotlight

We're watching the numbers.   No. 93 - September 10, 2024 New York by the Numbers Monthly Economic and Fiscal Outlook [READ MORE]( Photo Credit: Wirestock Creators/Shutterstock   A Message from the Comptroller Dear New Yorkers, I hope you enjoyed the last gasps of summer and getting back into the school year/fall swing-of-things. One of the late-summer traditions of the Comptroller’s Office is presenting our [comprehensive analysis]( on New York City’s Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 adopted budget at the annual meeting of the New York State Financial Control Board. OK, maybe not as fun as a trip to Coney Island, but it is required by law! We raised three key points in our report. First, while NYC’s low unemployment rate is encouraging, significant challenges to the city’s economy remain. Job creation has been over-concentrated in health care and social insurance, while other important sectors, including financial services and information services, posted year-over-year job losses. Second, NYC’s fiscal outlook is muddied by chronic “underbudgeting” by City Hall (i.e. presenting low numbers for expenses like homeless services and uniformed overtime, when everyone knows they will be higher). While our report estimates a manageable gap of $1.59 billion in FY 2025, much larger gaps—of $9.18 billion in FY 2026, $10.49 billion in FY 2027, and $12.70 billion in FY 2028—are on the horizon. Finally, I repeated my call for the City to confront these challenges by adopting a stronger fiscal framework. You can learn more about the solutions we propose [here](. Although the Mayor’s Charter Revision Commission refused to adopt them, they could still be implemented by local law and executive order. Speaking of confronting fiscal challenges: every family with kids in New York City knows child care can be a financially crushing but essential obligation for parents. So this month’s Spotlight provides a numbers-oriented view of NYC’s publicly-supported child care programs. We examine the budget, funding, and enrollment impacts of the City’s administrative changes, the expansion of 3-K, the pandemic (and post-pandemic recovery), and recent budget maneuvering on the provision of publicly subsidized child care. Providing affordable, accessible, high-quality child care is a critical issue for NYC families and our economy as a whole—and one place we’ll continue to watch the numbers. Brad Lander   Table of Contents - [The U.S. Economy]( - [New York City Economy]( - [City Finances]( Highlights - The US economy continues to grow moderately; inflation has continued to recede nationwide but has remained stubbornly high locally. - The local labor market remains fairly solid with job growth expected to be revised up a bit; still, job creation has not been broad based, predominantly accruing to one industry sector: Health & Social Services. - Consumer confidence picked up in August, while business sentiment remained tepid. - The local housing market has been stable (albeit at historically-high rents that are beyond the reach of many NYC families), while the office market’s gradual rebound continued in August. [View the September Newsletter](     Spotlight NYC's Publicly Supported Child Care Programs This month’s Spotlight provides an overview of New York City’s publicly-funded child care programs and initiatives for ages 0-5, focusing on historical and current funding, eligibility criteria, and challenges in this important area. [View the Spotlight](     In Case You Missed It Over the past month, the Office of Comptroller released the following announcements on the state of NYC’s economy and finances: - [Comptroller Lander Exposes NYC’s Worst Workers’ Rights Offenders, Launches First-Ever Comprehensive Labor Violations Dashboard]( - [NYC Comptroller Lander Presents Analysis of New York City’s FY 2025 Adopted Budget to Financial Control Board]( - [NYC Comptroller Brad Lander Responds to Congressmembers Jordan & Massie on Responsible Investing Efforts]( - [Comptroller Brad Lander Delivers Remarks Before the NYC Council on the Nomination of Randy Mastro as New York City Corporation Counsel](   Fiscal Notes on Property Tax Reform The Comptroller is a long-time advocate of property tax reform to address flaws in NYC’s notoriously unfair, opaque, and arbitrary system. In response to recent developments, the Comptroller’s Office released two fiscal notes examining the impacts of potential changes, finding that changes implemented by the City alone have serious shortcomings. A combination of State legislation and City action would be a more comprehensive, fair, and effective path: - [Fiscal Note: Implications of Lowering the Class 1 Assessment Ratio.]( A review of the distribution of property tax burden within Class 1, and the potential impacts and limitations of administratively lowering its assessment ratio - [Fiscal Note: Comparable Rentals](. A review of the impact of the New York State requirement that NYC assess co-ops and condos using to “comparable” rental buildings.   [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [Instagram]( [Office of the New York City Comptroller Brad Lander]( Office of the New York City Comptroller Office of New York City Comptroller Brad Lander 1 Centre Street New York, NY 10007 United States   This email was sent to {EMAIL}. 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