'Rally-round-the-flag'?

Plus: Black women for Judge Jackson and truth in political ads [View this email online]( [NPR Politics]( March 19, 2022 This week, we looked at the Biden administration's Ukraine response, funding to fight COVID and rejected mail ballots. Plus, truth in campaign ads. --------------------------------------------------------------- The Big Picture: [President Biden signs a declaration] Patrick Semansky/AP The latest [NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll]( taken immediately after President Biden’s State of the Union address, found Biden got a bump, especially on his handling of Ukraine. His approval on the issue jumped from 34% to 52%. As Russia's brutal war on Ukraine has continued, other reputable surveys out this week have found similar, but more mixed, results for Biden. The [Pew Research Center]( for example, found 47% approved, while 39% disapproved of his administration's handling of Ukraine. [Monmouth University]( showed somewhat higher disapproval — 46% approved, 48% disapproved. That split in public opinion is despite big majorities saying they are in favor of sanctions against Russia, though pluralities say the West [isn't doing enough](. Biden's improvement in surveys on his handling of Ukraine is reflective of a phenomenon known as the "rally-round-the-flag effect" — though in these partisan times, and with [Republican leaders quick to criticize]( it's been smaller than during past international crises involving the United States. “Being able to tread water in those numbers shows how much benefit he's gotten from his response to the Ukraine crisis,” said Michael Nelson, a professor at Rhodes College and editor of the American Presidential Elections book series, who has written of the rally-round-the-flag effect. “Had it not been for that, I think we might have seen a drop in his approval numbers because of his various problems with domestic policy, the economy [particularly inflation] and so on.” Other times in history when there’s been such an effect: - After 9/11 for George W. Bush, as Bush’s approval shot up to 90% - During the Gulf War for Bush’s father, George H.W. Bush - Amid the Iran hostage crisis for Jimmy Carter (though it later faded) - After the Mayaguez incident for Gerald Ford - For John F. Kennedy [despite]( the failed Bay of Pigs invasion Nelson said major international crises don’t always boost presidential numbers, but there’s nothing else that has proven to increase public approval the way one can. He added, however, this point: “Here's the thing: The rally-round-the-flag effect is ordinarily a sort of shot of adrenaline. It is not a longtime cure for presidential problems with the public.” — [Domenico Montanaro]( NPR’s senior political editor/correspondent --------------------------------------------------------------- Newsletter continues after sponsor message --------------------------------------------------------------- ICYMI: Top Stories Daniel Slim/AFP via Getty Images Black women for KBJ: More than a dozen Black women and activists said they're preparing to be Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson's first line of defense during her confirmation hearing next week against anticipated Republican attacks, and to help share her story with the nation. [Read what some of those women had to say about Jackson’s nomination to the Supreme Court](. COVID funding: The White House this week said it’s running out of money for several key COVID-19 programs after Congress failed to include $22.5 billion in funding in a recent government spending bill. Programs that are in danger of being cut back include [federal government purchases of monoclonal antibody treatments and antiviral drugs; research into new COVID-19 variants; and efforts to help poorer countries vaccinate people](. The White House also [announced a new leader for its COVID response](. Ballot rejections: Thousands of Texans [had their mail-in ballots rejected in this month’s primary]( the first election held after the implementation of the state’s controversial new voting law. In Harris County, the state's most populous county, officials said they rejected a whopping 19% of the mail ballots they received, or 6,888 ballots in total. In 2018 the rejection rate was 0.3%. Key Fed nominee withdraws: Sarah Bloom Raskin, a President Biden nominee for a key Federal Reserve position, [withdrew her nomination after encountering fierce opposition from Senate Republicans and fossil fuel interests](. Raskin has argued that bank regulators should pay more attention to the financial risks posed by climate change. Truth in political ads: A campaign ad for Kari Lake, a Republican candidate for Arizona governor, includes baseless claims of a rigged 2020 election. It sparks the question: [Can candidates lie in their paid ads? The short answer: yes](. — [Brandon Carter]( NPR Politics social media producer Going Deeper: Sarahbeth Maney/AP Zelenskyy addresses U.S. Congress: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivered an impassioned, live-video plea to lawmakers on Wednesday for additional support and for President Biden to spearhead the world's defense of Ukraine against Russian attacks, now in their third week. Hours later, Biden pledged $800 million more in security assistance, though he stopped short of Zelenskyy's request of a no-fly zone over Ukraine. [Read more about the speech]( which included a video of graphic war zone footage of injured and dead civilians, hospital patients and destroyed buildings. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Greg Meeks, a Democrat, said many lawmakers in the room were moved to tears during the video. The scenes it showed, he said, "looked like Nazi Germany to me." — [Heidi Glenn]( NPR digital editor The Shot: Claire Harbage/NPR Across Lviv, Ukrainians want to preserve cultural heritage sites like paintings and statues. Parts of Lviv date back to the 5th century. There are churches all over as well as architecture from the medieval and Renaissance periods. So residents are wrapping statues in fireproof material to protect them from Russian bombs. Statues of Jesus Christ have been taken down and paintings have been removed from museum walls, hidden for safekeeping in secret locations underground. "I've devoted my life to protecting these monuments," says Liliya Onyschenko, who is the head of historical preservation in Lviv. She took [NPR on a tour of what she’s doing to save artifacts and monuments]( and NPR photographer Claire Harbage documented the work. — [Heidi Glenn]( NPR digital editor --------------------------------------------------------------- Listen to your local NPR station. Visit NPR.org to find your local station stream. [Listen Live]( [Facebook]( [Instagram]( [Twitter]( What do you think of today's email? We'd love to hear your thoughts, questions and feedback: [nprpolitics@npr.org](mailto:nprpolitics@npr.org?subject=Newsletter%20Feedback) Enjoying this newsletter? Forward to a friend! [They can sign up here.]( Looking for more great content? [Check out all of our newsletter offerings]( — including Daily News, Code Switch, Health and more! You received this message because you're subscribed to Politics emails. 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