Horse Race Polls Let Us Down, Again!

Also, two ethics questions and two recommendations [View this email online]( [NPR Public Editor by Poynter's Kelly McBride]( In a couple of months, a group of pollsters and journalists will issue a report that breaks down how and why polls were off in measuring voter sentiment in the 2020 presidential race. There was a similar gathering after 2016, and a new and improved set of [best practices]( emerged. And yet ... the polls were clearly wrong, possibly in more ways than one, in 2020. The predicted Biden wave did not materialize. On the state level, polls underestimated Republican turnout in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio. But they also underestimated Democratic strength in Arizona and Minnesota. It’s too early to tell why, and it’s irresponsible to leap to conclusions. After the 2016 election, experts [determined]( that some state-level polls failed to adequately weight the results for education (people with college degrees disproportionately respond to polls and vote Democratic). I wrote about what the [2020 version]( of this investigation will look like on Poynter.org. Compared with commercial media, NPR has a much lighter emphasis on horse race results. Many have suggested that journalists just give up on polls all together. That’s a hard pill to swallow for most newsrooms, because those stories about who’s ahead in an upcoming election are incredibly popular. It’s a privilege of public media to choose a different path. NPR did only a [handful]( of poll [stories]( in the runup to the election, generally once a month or so, as new results arrived from its polling partner, Marist. But that doesn’t mean that polls didn’t influence how NPR journalists [described]( how the races were shaping up. Nonetheless, trust me, in the coming months we’ll be talking about the value of polls in the coverage of political races. In the meantime, here’s two citizen questions about NPR coverage, and two recommendations for great journalism that will improve your life. [Voters cast ballots at the Park Tavern polling station on Tuesday in Atlanta]( Voters cast ballots at the Park Tavern polling station on Tuesday in Atlanta. Jessica McGowan/Getty Images From the Inbox Here are a few quotes from the Public Editor's inbox that resonated with us. You can share your questions and concerns with us through the [NPR Contact page](. Complicated international stories Diego Rubalcava-Alvarez writes: During the [10-24-2020 12:00 AM ET NPR News Now]( brief, reporter Nora Raum updated us on a ceasefire in Libya. For background, she said Libya "has been in chaos since the 2011 uprising that toppled and killed long-time dictator Muammar Gaddafi." The situation may have started with local uprisings, but I think we can all agree the unprecedented chaos was caused by NATO and the USA bombings and overthrow. I remember that because I am 30 years old. But what about younger listeners who are hearing your broadcast? They might hear about local uprising and blame the people of Libya for their problems, without realizing the role the USA played. This just happened 9 years ago and already the USA's role is being written out of the narrative? People talk about how "Americans lack a sense of history." I think that is true and this reporting is an unfortunate contributor to that. In the newscast (the 5-minute update you hear on the radio at the top of the hour, when you launch NPR One or when you start listening on the internet), a segment, or “reader,” is about 20 to 25 seconds in length. That’s what Nora Raum was doing in this newscast, Executive Producer Robert Garcia told the Public Editor’s office. “The 2011 uprising was referenced but you are correct that newscasts have very limited real estate and there is only so much we can include and in this case we prioritized the latest developments,” he said in an email. One casualty of the pandemic and this election season is that a full plate of domestic stories crowds out a thorough treatment of international stories. Roughly 20 to 30 percent of every newscast is predictably devoted to international news, Garcia said. The newsmagazines independently determine which stories get a full report in their shows. “That decision is based on general news and the amount of time they’ve got to set their shows, things like that,” he said. The international desk trains newscast editors on coverage of the Middle East to make it easier to incorporate international stories, Garcia said. Adding more context would have given a listener a better understanding of Libya’s history. Often, that’s not possible in a newscast, and when there’s no room in a magazine show for a fuller treatment of the story, the choice becomes to include a brief amount of information, or no information at all. — Meredith Roaten Headline shenanigans Gaelan Steele writes: The headline "[Polling Places Are Closing Due To COVID-19, It Could Tip Races In 1 Swing State]( (and, more specifically, a tweet from @nprpolitics with just the headline) rubbed me the wrong way. This is NPR, not Buzzfeed — the headline's job is to summarize the story, not to get me to click. Just saying "Iowa" would have been shorter and more clear. [NPR Politics tweet]( [NPR Politics tweet screenshot]( This was a story about Iowa and the name of the state should have been in the headline. Without that detail, the headline gives off a clickbait vibe. Those who only saw the headline likely walked away misinformed. You can see from these two different tweets that it’s possible to be more precise, even with a short amount of space. NPR audience members who listened to the story learned right away that this story was about Iowa with host Steve Inskeep’s introduction on Morning Edition. Because it’s election week, no one was available to explain the reasoning that went into the decision to suggest this trend of closing polling spots due to COVID-19 was happening outside of Iowa. But it was reassuring to hear more clarity on the radio piece and see that same precision in other tweets. — Kelly McBride and Amaris Castillo Spotlight on The Public Editor spends a lot of time examining moments where NPR fell short. Yet we also learn a lot about NPR by looking at work that we find to be compelling and excellent journalism. Here we share a line or two about the pieces where NPR shines. Coping mechanisms [Web comic]( LA Johnson LIFE KIT [When The Headlines Won't Stop, Here's How To Cope With Anxiety]( We aren’t great at knowing how our own minds work, said neuroscientist and psychiatrist Judson Brewer on the Life Kit episode “[When The Headlines Won't Stop, Here's How To Cope With Anxiety]( Brewer and host Keisha “TK” Dutes talked about how to deal with the tidal wave of the current news cycle and this year’s many tension-inducing headlines. NPR art director and illustrator LA Johnson visualized the conversation with a colorful, friendly web comic that explains just what our brains are up to when we’re worried, anxious and stressed. “Anxiety and stress make the prefrontal cortex — the thinking and planning part of the brain — shut down,” the comic reads. “Which oftentimes results in checking out … As in, let’s binge some trash TV.” Johnson’s comic provides clarity, bringing complex ideas down to earth and capturing the essence of Dutes’ and Brewer’s Life Kit discussion. Plus, the illustrations are fun to look at and engage with. They give NPR’s audience an additional point of access for this insightful information and coping tips, a necessary combination during this year like no other. “Back in art school, I had a professor who explained that the role of an illustration was to tell the story in a way that adds something to the words,” Johnson said. “I use my method of storytelling to beam pictures into your brain paired with short phrases so you can quickly digest them and tuck them away into your long-term memory. The next time you’re feeling anxious, you can recall my drawing of your poor lil’ fried brain and hopefully you will either laugh a little or at least remember to cut yourself some slack.” — Kayla Randall Election postcards [Homestead, Fla. - Simone Allison]( Katie Hayes Luke THE PICTURE SHOW [Postcards From Americans: What Motivates People To Vote]( Since 2017 photographer Katie Hayes Luke has been asking Texans what they would like to say to President Donald Trump. Her project [Postcards From Americans]( blends beautiful visuals with insight into one of the most politically and demographically diverse places in the country. NPR’s robust election coverage has hit both big-picture [stories]( and the personal [side]( of politics. This 6-minute piece allows the audience to hear voters’ voices. No hosts, no reporters — just citizens making earnest pleas to the leader of the country. Listeners may not like or understand every perspective that’s shared, but one of NPR’s core responsibilities as public media is to introduce listeners to many different viewpoints. The portraits of Texas voters range from nurses to students to gun advocates, and each makes an impression. This election week feature is a break from the bad news without getting too far away from the pressing question of the moment. — Meredith Roaten The Office of the Public Editor is a team. Researchers Amaris Castillo, Kayla Randall and Meredith Roaten make this newsletter possible. We are still reading all of your messages on [Facebook]( [Twitter]( and from [our inbox](. As always, keep them coming. Kelly McBride NPR Public Editor Chair, [Craig Newmark Center for Ethics & Leadership at the Poynter Institute]( [Kayla Randall, National Public Radio]( Kayla Randall, National Public Radio [Meredith Roaten, National Public Radio]( Meredith Roaten, National Public Radio [Kelly McBride, Public Editor]( Kelly McBride, Public Editor [Amaris Castillo, Poynter Institute]( Amaris Castillo, Poynter Institute The Public Editor stands as a source of independent accountability. Created by NPR's board of directors, the Public Editor serves as a bridge between the newsroom and the audience, striving to both listen to the audience's concerns and explain the newsroom's work and ambitions. The office ensures NPR remains steadfast in its mission to present fair, accurate and comprehensive information in service of democracy. [Read more]( from the NPR Public Editor, [contact us]( or follow us on [Twitter](. You received this message because you're subscribed to Public Editor emails. This email was sent by National Public Radio, Inc., 1111 North Capitol Street NE, Washington, DC 20002 [Unsubscribe]( | [Privacy Policy]( [NPR logo]