Bending To Reality

Trump is running out of time to win voters back. Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images The Big Picture: Trump Buckles Under Political Pressure With COVID-19 cases going up in places key to his reelection, and his poll numbers those same places going down, President Trump has been boxed into shifting course. Let’s recap. This week, as NPR’s Ayesha Rascoe recounted on NPR’s Morning Edition Friday, Trump: - endorsed wearing masks, calling it “patriotic” after resisting wearing them publicly for months; - acknowledged that the pandemic will likely get worse before it gets better after months of dismissing its seriousness; - backed away from his insistence that schools reopen this fall, having previously threatened to pull what small federal funding schools receive; and the cherry on top of it all… - canceled the in-person Republican National Convention that was supposed to take place in Jacksonville, Fla., after lambasting North Carolina’s governor for not being able to guarantee an in-person convention could be allowed to take place in his state by August and Trump making fun of Democrats for planning a virtual convention. The GOP convention will now largely be virtual, too. Make no mistake: This is Trump politically crying uncle. Polls have shown him tanking against Democrat Joe Biden in states like Pennsylvania and Florida. These are places he won in 2016. [Biden is now up by an average of more than 7 points]( in Pennsylvania. A Fox News poll released Thursday has Biden up 50% to 39%. In Florida, among the closest states in the last several presidential elections, it’s a remarkably similar story. Biden is ahead [on average by more than 7 points]( and a Quinnipiac poll out Thursday put Biden up 51% to 38%. That’s up from what was just a 4-point Biden lead in April in the same poll. How important are these numbers? If Biden were to hold onto everything Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and add Pennsylvania and Florida, it would be enough to put Biden over the threshold to win. He’d be at 281 electoral votes. And a candidate needs 270, a majority of the 538 available electoral votes. Trump is not one to yield or bow to pressure. But this is the lowest point of his presidency politically – and now, not even he can deny the trouble he’s in. All that said, Democratic strategists and the Biden campaign fully expect the race to tighten. They believe Biden’s support with independents, who might lean toward Trump, is likely soft. In other words, many of those voters may very well go back toward Trump by the fall if they sense he’s handling things marginally better. But with the election just 101 days away, Trump is running out of time to win them back. “I could say I’m fully responsible,” Trump [said Tuesday]( when asked if he’s responsible for American deaths because of downplaying the severity of COVID-19. “But, you know, one day, we had a virus come in… .” With a [solid -- and growing -- majority]( of Americans saying they disapprove of how Trump’s handled the worst pandemic in a century, if he loses, expect that to be one of the things history remembers about his presidency and this election. — Domenico Montanaro, NPR’s senior political editor/correspondent [Read More]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images 2020 Election Roundup Biden’s child care plan: Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden [unveiled a $775 billion policy proposal]( to make both child care and elder care more accessible and affordable. The plan would also establish universal pre-K for 3- and 4-year-olds. RNC fundraising: The Republican National Committee raised nearly [$37 million in June]( almost $10 million more than in each of the two months prior. The RNC says it has a record $100 million cash on hand. Biden addresses Muslim American advocacy group: Biden virtually spoke to Emgage Action, which says 3,000 people RSVP’d to hear the former vice president speak. While Biden didn't introduce any new policy priorities, his [tone marked a noticeable departure]( from how many politicians have addressed Muslims in recent years. VP shortlist: Speculation continues as to who Biden will tap to be his vice president. Attention has shifted to Illinois [Sen. Tammy Duckworth]( an Iraq War veteran who frequently spars with President Trump and his allies. Meanwhile [former U.N. ambassador Susan Rice]( is said to be getting serious consideration from the Biden campaign, even though she has never run for elected office. Trump campaigns on suburbs: President Trump won suburban voters narrowly in 2016, but now he's getting swamped in the polls with them against Joe Biden. Trump is trying to turn it around with a [heavy dose of fear.]( — Barbara Sprunt, NPR Politics producer --------------------------------------------------------------- Newsletter continues after sponsor message --------------------------------------------------------------- Win McNamee/Getty Images ICYMI: Top Stories Ocasio-Cortez responds to vulgar remarks: After GOP Rep. Ted Yoho was overheard referring to Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as a "f*****g bitch," Ocasio-Cortez responded in [remarks on the House floor]( saying she "could not allow that to stand." “I am here because I have to show my parents that I am their daughter and that they did not raise me to accept abuse from men,” she said in her remarks. House passes Confederate statues bill: The House of Representatives passed a bill to[remove statues honoring Confederate figures]( from the U.S. Capitol. The bill would also replace a bust of Chief Justice Roger Brooke Taney, author of the Supreme Court's 1857 Dred Scott decision denying freedom to an enslaved man, with a bust of Justice Thurgood Marshall. Cohen again released from prison: A federal judge ordered President Trump's former personal attorney and fixer, Michael Cohen, [to be released from prison to home confinement](. The judge found that Cohen's recent return to prison was retaliation for plans to publish a tell-all book. Trump deploys federal agents across U.S.: In an unprecedented move, President Trump is [dispatching federal agents to cities across the U.S.]( he claims are "plagued by violent crime." A similar deployment of agents in Portland has prompted fierce criticism for its use of force against protesters. Twitter bans QAnon: Twitter [removed thousands of accounts]( associated with the baseless, far-right QAnon conspiracy theory, and promises to use other tools to block the spread of tweets, links and targeted harassment related to the conspiracy. It’s one of the more aggressive responses from social media companies to the conspiracy theory, which now counts several Republican candidates for Congress among its believers. Trump’s controversial Census memo: President Trump [signed a memorandum that calls for]( the exclusion of unauthorized immigrants from census numbers used to divide up seats in Congress among the states. But Congress, not the president, has final authority over the U.S. Census, and since the first census in 1790, both U.S. citizens and noncitizens — regardless of immigration status — have been included in the country's official population counts. — Brandon Carter, NPR Politics social media producer --------------------------------------------------------------- Robyn Beck/AFP via Getty Images News Roundup: The Coronavirus Crisis Senate relief bill stalls: Republican senators have reached a deal with the White House on an [upcoming coronavirus aid bill]( including $105 billion for schools and $16 billion for testing. But they are still discussing unemployment aid and need broader talks with Democrats. 4 million mark: 15 days after the United States hit 3 million cases of the coronavirus, [another million Americans have tested positive](. Federal health officials have said the actual number of cases is likely 10 times higher than the number of confirmed cases. An unreliable presidential talking point: President Trump often cites the [fatality rate]( of the coronavirus, saying it’s more important the number of cases. But medical experts say it's not a good way to measure the pandemic. New guidelines for schools: President Trump announced new guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on [reopening schools](. He acknowledged that in some coronavirus hot spots, the start of the school year may need to be delayed. — Barbara Sprunt, NPR Politics producer --------------------------------------------------------------- Don Gonyea/NPR The Shot: Remembering John Lewis Rep. John Lewis, an icon of the civil rights movement and force in Democratic politics for decades, died on July 17 at the age of 80. Lewis began his nearly 60-year career in public service leading sit-ins at segregated lunch counters in the Jim Crow-era South, and was among the peaceful protesters attacked and violently beaten by police in 1965 while marching in Selma, Ala.. Lewis, who represented the Atlanta area in the House for more than 30 years, was known not only for his dedication to the fight for equality and justice, but also his unique and moving oratory. He was revered by fellow lawmakers for his ability to capture a moment and inspire others to action, and he joined Martin Luther King Jr. as a speaker at the March on Washington in 1963, where his words influenced a generation of activists. “To those who have said, ‘Be patient and wait,’ ” he said, “we must say that we must not be patient. We do not want our freedom gradually, but we want to be free now.” Here, Lewis is pictured speaking in Ohio in 2018 during the midterm elections. Events celebrating Lewis’ life will take place over the next few days. On Sunday, a funeral procession will carry Lewis one last time over the Edmund Pettus Bridge in Selma. Lewis will then lie in state at the U.S. Capitol on Monday and Tuesday before his funeral services and burial in Atlanta on Thursday. Visit NPR.org for coverage of these events. — Brandon Carter, NPR Politics social media producer What do you think of today's email? We'd love to hear your thoughts, questions and feedback: [nprpolitics@npr.org](mailto:nprpolitics@npr.org?subject=Newsletter%20Feedback) Enjoying this newsletter? Forward to a friend! They can [sign up here](. Looking for more great content? [Check out all of our newsletter offerings]( — including Daily News, Code Switch, Health and more! You received this message because you're subscribed to Politics emails. This email was sent by National Public Radio, Inc., 1111 North Capitol Street NE, Washington, DC 20002 [Unsubscribe]( | [Privacy Policy](