Yes, Parasite Could Win Best Picture

Plus: Brad Pitt, Below Deck, and Bad Boys For Life by Linda Holmes Welcome! It was the week when we [learned the dark truth]( about Carpool Karaoke. It was the week when the union representing actors continued [working on guidelines]( for sex scenes and intimacy coordinators. And it was the week when many [struggled to comprehend the loss]( of the legendary and flawed Kobe Bryant. Let's get to it. And before we get started, a note: The Oscars are approaching, and we'll have our preview next week. But before that, if you're a Spotify user, t[here's a Spotify playlist]( of all our best picture nominee episodes, and you can binge them all to refresh your memory before the big night. Opening Argument: Yes, Parasite Could Win Best Picture The idea that Bong Joon-ho's Parasite could win best picture is not only not original to me; it's been gaining ground since the cast won the Screen Actors Guild Award for best ensemble cast. That win was notably predicted by Chris Feil [in a piece at Vulture]( that now looks -- of course -- wildly prescient. Chris also thinks it's going to win best picture at the Oscars on February 9. Is that likely, given past patterns? Of course not. Could it happen? Sure. One of the things that makes statistical analysis of the Oscars very difficult is that they completely changed the best picture field beginning with the awards handed out in 2010, doubling the number of nominees from five to ten. Two years later, they changed it again, so there could be between five and ten nominees, depending on nomination voting. While the general idea of the expanded field was originally understood to be motivated by a desire to recognize "popular" films (The Dark Knight was the spurned film most often mentioned as a potential beneficiary), what's happened certainly seems to be that smaller films have wiggled their way in. There's no control group that can tell you which five nominees in a nine-nominee year like this one would have been nominated under the old rules, so it's all speculation in good fun. But consider, for instance, that only eleven foreign language films have ever been nominated in 92 rounds of nominees, and three of those (Amour, Roma and now Parasite) have been nominated since the field was expanded 10 years ago. Does Parasite make it in a five-nominee year, given the likelihood of nominations for at least traditional Oscars-y movies like The Irishman (mob movie with previously-winning director), 1917 (war movie with previously-winning director), Once Upon A Time In Hollywood (auteur violence), Little Women (gorgeous and wonderful period piece) and Marriage Story (domestic drama with very famous actors)? I think the likelihood is that until relatively recently, Parasite wouldn't have even been nominated, so there's not a very big group of wins to compare it to. Thus, not having won the Producers Guild Award (often considered a very powerful precursor to the Oscars) or not having its individual actors nominated is certainly noteworthy as to patterns, but making too much out of those things seems like a mistake. This is going to be a weird year no matter what -- 1917 is a solid pick for front-runner via conventional wisdom, but it would also be an unconventional winner, in that its main cast is largely unknown and it didn't land a single SAG award nomination. Once Upon A Time In Hollywood is on a lot of people's prediction ballots, but it just doesn't feel to me like it has any momentum, and it feels like a weird moment in industry history to go out of your way to honor such an old-fashioned, kind of retro vision of film. (Always remember that the Oscars are how Hollywood tells itself what it values, whether it actually does or not. Do people really want to declare right now that what they think is most important is this? It seems unlikely.) [Parasite Image]( Courtesy of NEON CJ Entertainment The bottom line is that all of this stuff is both important and unimportant -- the Oscars have tendencies, but they don't have rules that you can rely on. The argument for Parasite is this: It has plenty of people who absolutely adore it, which is important, because to win best picture, you need enough people who have ranked your movie first -- you can't win by being everybody's second choice. (How that works is [explained elsewhere]( please don't make me do it here, because it makes my head hurt.) But if you have a good chunk of first-place votes, it's important to have a lot of second- and third-place votes, too. That's why if you can combine people who love your movie with people who like your movie, that's a way to win. I have always suspected this might be how Moonlight won over La La Land. Even people who didn't love Moonlight generally really liked it, while people who didn't love La La Land might very well have ranked it low or last. I haven't really talked to any hard-core Parasite-in-last-place people. I don't get the sense that there's a faction dragging it down, putting it last. I don't think that will be the case for Joker, or Once Upon A Time In Hollywood, or even The Irishman -- the latter because I think the voters retain a little bit of Netflix resentment. Again, it's all speculation. But the theory would be that an Academy that's ready to nominate foreign-language films two years in a row is going to give one the win eventually. Bong Joon-ho seems to be hugely well-liked, the movie is fantastic (entertaining and artful), and it just ... it feels possible. That's my thesis. My thesis is that it feels possible. With that said, I am a terrible prognosticator, so I'm sure that by the time I tape our Oscars preview show next week, I will have been talked out of this possibility by my more savvy co-panelists. I'll still be hoping, though. We Recommend I very much [enjoyed this piece]( from Manohla Dargis about beauty and Brad Pitt. On February 3 (that's Monday night), HBO airs the first episode of the documentary series McMillions, about the defrauding of the McDonald's Monopoly game. What I will tell you that will perhaps give you guidance is that critics got the first three episodes (there are six total), and I have been checking back every day to see if they drop the last three. It's that riveting. If you are the kind of weirdo who enjoys the Bravo Below Deck franchise ([as I have explained with regret in the past]( I am such a weirdo), you should be aware that the new entry, Below Deck: Sailing Yacht, begins Monday night also. I loved [this piece from Alex Beggs]( at Bon Appetit about why snacks have gotten so grim. It's one of those things I hadn't thought about, but the minute I saw it, I thought, "Yes! Exactly!" What We Did This Week: [Bad Boys PCHH Image]( Kyle Kaplan/Columbia Pictures It's been quiet at the NPR arts desk this week, as everyone trades various colds and other grody viruses around, but Stephen Thompson stayed up late with NPR Music's Anastasia Tsioulcas on Sunday night to [talk about the Grammy Awards](. On [our Friday show]( we were joined by the delightful Soraya Nadia McDonald to discuss Bad Boys For Life, Will Smith, Martin Lawrence, playing cops, Will Smith and Martin Lawrence playing cops, and [Soraya's terrific piece]( on all these matters. Stephen also had a [delightful radio appearance this week]( in which he talked about the fine band Harvey Danger and the fact that if you only know "Flagpole Sitta," you should remedy that. What's Making Us Happy: Every week on the show, we talk about some other things out in the world that have been giving us joy lately. Here they are: - Soraya: The anthology [Believe Me: How Trusting Women Can Change The World]( - Stephen: [The Serious Goose]( by Jimmy Kimmel - Glen: [Influencers In The Wild]( - Linda: [Next In Fashion]( What do you think of today's email? We'd love to hear your thoughts, questions and feedback: [pchh@npr.org](mailto:pchh@npr.org?subject=Newsletter%20Feedback) Enjoying this newsletter? Forward to a friend! They can [sign up here](. Looking for more great content? [Check out all of our newsletter offerings]( — including Music, Books, Daily News and more! You received this message because you're subscribed to Pop Culture Happy Hour emails. This email was sent by National Public Radio, Inc., 1111 North Capitol Street NE, Washington, DC 20002 [Unsubscribe]( | [Privacy Policy](