Trump’s post-Iowa gauntlet

The Iowa caucus countdown begins Monday, Jan. 15, 2024 IOWA CAUCUS COUNTDOWN [A photo of Trump, Nikkie Haley, DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy] This is a special edition of MSNBC's pop-up newsletter covering the 2024 election. [Click here]( to continue receiving race updates and expert analysis. Jen Palmieri: Trump's post-Iowa gauntlet Jen Palmieri: Trump's post-Iowa gauntlet Starting with tonight’s caucuses, Donald Trump faces a precarious eight-week gauntlet of contests, with voters and judges who will test the front-runner’s seeming invincibility. Between now and the Super Tuesday primaries on March 5, Trump will contend with the caucuses, the New Hampshire primary (where Nikki Haley [poses a threat]( to him), the Nevada and South Carolina primaries, a ruling in [New York’s civil fraud case](, a ruling on his [federal immunity plea defense](, a [Supreme Court hearing](on the Colorado ballot disqualification case, the start of another defamation trial from E. Jean Carroll and — should his immunity plea fail — the potential start of Jack Smith’s [Jan. 6 trial](on March 4. To date, Trump’s refusal to engage with his primary opponents and instead use his court appearances as the centerpiece of his campaign communications strategy hasn’t hurt him with voters. But he’s not without vulnerabilities — a weak showing in Iowa and New Hampshire or a string of setbacks in the courtroom could change the electoral state of play. Certainly, Trump faces a scathing week of attacks in New Hampshire, which is a do-or-die state for Haley. More moments like former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s [blistering broadside]( could create lasting damage for Trump in the general election. (Note that unlike in other battleground states, President Joe Biden has [a strong lead]( over Trump in New Hampshire, where voters have been fed a steady diet of anti-Trump messaging from Christie and others.) Trump’s national primary polling average is currently [over 60%.]( That means 40% of voters are not yet on board. Most of those voters will likely revert to Trump in the general, but the Biden campaign may still be able to peel away conservatives who can’t stomach their nominee. All of which is to say that a Trump victory in Iowa won’t tell us very much. But the next two months could reveal a great deal ahead of November. Stay tuned. MARK YOUR CALENDARS [Alternate text] MADDOWBLOG'S CAMPAIGN ROUND-UP [Alternate text] - Despite his own [troubled history]( on the issue, Donald Trump’s campaign launched [a new ad]( last week targeting former Ambassador Nikki Haley for wanting to raise the retirement age for Social Security. - President Joe Biden won’t be in Iowa for the caucuses, but the Democratic incumbent’s political operation is deploying some surrogates to the Hawkeye State. Leading the way will be [two Midwesterners](: Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Sen. Tina Smith of Minnesota. - Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis sparked a new controversy last week when [he suggested]( during a primary debate that he would support the “mass removal of Palestinians” from Gaza if Israeli officials decide “they need to do that.” Read the rest of Steve Benen's round-up [here.]( QUESTION OF THE WEEK [Alternate text] [Iowa's "life-threatening" blizzard]( and subzero temperatures ahead of the caucuses could jeopardize voter turnout. [VOTE HERE]( TOP ELECTION NEWS [Alternate text] [A photo of Trump and Nikki Haley]( [Susan Del Percio]( [Nikki Haley's Iowa surge is giving anti-Trump Republicans (false) hope]( [A photo of Trump]( [Morning Joe]( [Trump 'will be melting down' if he loses to Nikki Haley in New Hampshire]( [A photo of Elise Stefanik]( [Norman Eisen and Joanna Lydgate]( [Election deniers like Elise Stefanik threaten democracy as much as Trump]( [A photo of Chris Christie]( [Lawrence O'Donnell]( [Chris Christie's final campaign speech is exactly what Republican-leaning voters need to hear](   This is a special edition of MSNBC's pop-up newsletter covering the 2024 election. [Click here]( to continue receiving race updates and expert analysis. GO DEEPER [Alternate text]   For more insights from Jennifer Palmieri, listen to the "How to Win 2024" podcast where she and Claire MacCaskill address key developments throughout the election season. In a special bonus episode, Palmieri, Steve Kornacki, Katy Tur and other guests analyze the numbers behind the final Des Moines Register/NBC poll as Iowa prepares to kick off their first votes of the 2024 election. [Listen now.]( [UNSUBSCRIBE](listvar=sub_midterms) | [PRIVACY]( | [CONTACT]( | [VIEW IN BROWSER]( [UNSUBSCRIBE](listvar=sub_maddow) | [PRIVACY]( | [CONTACT]( | [VIEW IN BROWSER](