The two biggest problems Democrats have to overcome in November

Kornacki's Take: We are now inside 100 days until the midterms and Republicans seem poised to retake the House and possibly the Senate. This is the first edition of our pop-up Countdown to Midterms newsletter. If you'd like to stay informed each week with curated match-ups, race updates and key analysis from experts like Steve Kornacki, [click here to continue receiving this special offering](. This is the first edition of our pop-up Countdown to Midterms newsletter. If you'd like to stay informed each week with curated match-ups, race updates and key analysis from experts like Steve Kornacki, [click here to continue receiving this special offering](. Sunday, July 31, 2022 100 DAYS TO THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS [Alternate text] Kornacki's Take: We are now inside 100 days until the midterms and Republicans seem poised to retake the House and possibly the Senate. President Joe Biden's approval rating has plummeted to 38.1%. That's lower than the 43.3% approval that Donald Trump had on this day in 2018, a midterm cycle that ultimately produced a loss of 40 House seats for Trump's party. It's also lower than the 45.0% approval rating that Obama had before Democrats 63 seat net loss "shellacking" of 2010. What remains unclear for these next few months is how big or small a wave may be — and whether Republicans will nominate candidates in key races with weaknesses that prevent them from taking advantage of the favorable environment. New congressional maps across the country have yielded less competitive terrain where a 60+ seat turnover may no longer be possible even under favorable conditions. Plus the ongoing debates ushered in with the Supreme Court's ruling on abortion reveal a climate that could offset some of the factors working against the Democrats in a midterm year. There are only two midterms in modern history where the incumbent White House party has gained seats. So if losses for Democrats are in the cards, how much will they be able to mitigate damage? 99 days to go for answers… TOP READS [Alternate text] [A photo of Joy Reid]( [Joy Reid]( [The stakes of the 2022 midterms are exactly as shockingly high as they seem]( [A photo of Ari Melber]( [Ari Melber]( [The two biggest problems Democrats have to overcome in November]( ELECTION NEWS [Alternate text] As this week began, there were four competitive Democrats vying for the U.S. Senate nomination in Wisconsin. As of this morning, with State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski [ending her candidacy](, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is the last candidate standing. The latest Fox News [poll](in Pennsylvania shows Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman with a double-digit advantage over Republican Mehmet Oz in their U.S. Senate race, 47% to 36%. [Read more from MaddowBlog's Steve Benen.]( RACES TO WATCH [Alternate text] 1. Arizona Republican governor primary on Aug. 2 Former newscaster Kari Lake vs. former developer and lobbyist Karrin Taylor Robson 2. Michigan's Third Congressional District primary on Aug. 2 Republican incumbent Peter Meijer vs. former Trump administration official John Gibbs. 3. Michigan Republican governor primary on Aug. 2 Tudor Dixon, Ryan Kelley, Ralph Rebandt, Kevin Rinke and Garrett Soldano 4. Michigan’s Democratic 11th Congressional District primary on Aug. 2 U.S. Rep. Andy Levin vs. U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens 5. Missouri Republican Senate primary on Aug. 2 Attorney General Eric Schmitt, former governor Eric Greitens and Rep. Vicky Hartzler [Read more in MSNBC's key midterms match-up guide.]( MORE ON MSNBC [Alternate text] BEFORE YOU GO [Alternate text] To keep receiving Countdown to Midterms in your inbox each week, don't forget to [click here to subscribe to this limited-time offering](. [UNSUBSCRIBE](listvar=sub_midterms) | [PRIVACY]( | [CONTACT]( | [VIEW IN BROWSER]( [UNSUBSCRIBE](listvar=sub_maddow) | [PRIVACY]( | [CONTACT]( | [VIEW IN BROWSER](