Tuesday is election day in North Carolina. Here's why the GOP is scared.

It's the first real bellwether of the 2020 political field. [View in browser]( [Image]( SEPTEMBER 9, 2019 From [All In With Chris Hayes](: Tuesday is election day. It’s a race that will decide the final congressional contest of 2018, and the first real bellwether of the 2020 political field. It's a crazy story about a congressional race in North Carolina, in a strong Republican district that President Trump carried by 12 points in 2016. Mitt Romney won it by 12 points four years earlier. Last November, the Republican candidate, Mark Harris, appeared to squeak out a narrow victory over Democrat Dan McCready. But, it quickly became clear that Harris had hired a man named Leslie McCrae Dowless who allegedly ran a widespread fraud operation that involved sometimes paying people to illegally collect, fill out and forge absentee ballots. The fraud was so widespread the election board took the rare step of invalidating the results, and unanimously ordered a new election. In disgrace, Harris eventually gave up his fight for a congressional seat. The man he hired that allegedly did the fraud was indicted on felony charges, accused of "obstruction of justice and illegal possession of an absentee ballot." This new election tomorrow has Republicans panicked, because polling shows it to be neck-and-neck in a plus-12 Trump district. [As NBC News senior White House reporter Shannon Pettypiece writes](, President Trump put his political prowess on the line Tuesday night, campaigning for GOP candidate Dan Bishop in Fayetteville, North Carolina on the eve of the special election. “Tomorrow is your chance to send a clear message to the America-hating left,” Trump told the crowd in Fayetteville. A win by Democrat Dan McCready would send a dramatic warning sign to Republicans over their 2020 chances; even a narrow GOP victory in the deep-red district would be cause for concern. 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The Sunday before 9/11 … Barack Obama, before 9/11, killed [Osama] bin Laden.”]( — Nicolle Wallace on President Trump weighing Taliban talks at Camp David [(video)]( Opinion [OPINION.]( What the North Carolina election in the 9th District foreshadows about 2020. If formerly Republican voters in suburban Charlotte continue the trend from the midterms and vote Democrat, it's another sign the GOP is in trouble. by [Leah Askarinam](. [OPINION.]( As Hong Kong protests face mainland pushback, here's what Chinese nationalists misunderstand. In the images of millions upon millions of Hong Kongers marching peacefully for a better future, [Ying Ma]( sees the Hong Kong she fell in love with. What to watch Tuesday Tuesday's election in North Carolina is being closely watched by national Democrats and Republicans as a bellwether that could to help gauge voters’ mood less than 14 months before the 2020 election. On paper, [despite the electoral controversy that's rocked the district over the past year](, the race between Republican Dan Bishop and Democrat Dan McCready should be a shoo-in for Bishop — who is, after all, running in a district Trump won by 12 points in 2016. Instead, it’s a dead heat, fueling jitters among Republicans still reeling from heavy losses in the House of Representatives in 2018. We'll bring you the latest on Tuesday night: Election Night. This newsletter was prepped for you by Stephanie Haberman and Natasha Roy. Tell us what you think of the news and [drop us an e-mail.](mailto:msnbc.digital.editors@nbcuni.com?subject=MSNBC Daily) Check out our YouTube feature, ["The Day That Was,"]( a review of MSNBC's primetime coverage. Videos will be posted mornings at 7:30a.m. ET. Were you forwarded this email from a friend? [Subscribe here](. 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