Stock Strategist: Projecting Coronavirus' Long-Run Economic Impact

[Morningstar Logo]( [Company Site]( [Company News]( [Membership]( [Portfolio]( [Stocks]( [Options]( [Funds]( [ETFs]( [Markets]( [Tools]( [Personal Finance]( [Discuss]( Stock Strategist Projecting Coronavirus' Long-Run Economic Impact We've updated our near-term GDP forecast and look to previous recessions for longer-term guidance. [tab_bar] by Preston Caldwell | 5/15/2020 1:00:00 PM The coronavirus pandemic is already delivering eye-popping economic data, with the U.S. unemployment rate reaching 15% in April, the worst number since the Great Depression. Despite the inflow of very bad data, equity markets have rallied over the past six weeks, leaving many investors wondering if the market is exhibiting irrational exuberance. A recession is certainly underway in the U.S. and global economies. Our updated forecast is that U.S. GDP will fall 3.9% and global GDP will fall 2.4% in 2020 (down 100 basis points from our last GDP forecast). But the most important question for investors isn’t what happens in 2020; it’s what happens in the recovery afterward. The economic impact of COVID-19 and the recession on long-run GDP is key to understanding whether the recent rebound in equity prices makes sense. To read more, click [here](. Sponsored Links [Buy a Link Now]( Podcast: Investing Insights From Morningstar.com Listen to a roundup of the latest videos featured on Morningstar.com [in this podcast]( available through iTunes. Free Issue | Morningstar's Stock Newsletter >> Morningstar StockInvestor is celebrating more than 10 successful years of high-quality stock investing. Its two real-money portfolios have outperformed the S&P 500 since 2001. [Get new ideas for the core of your stock portfolio](. Search Most Recent Articles [Morningstar's Guide to Target-Date Investing]( [There's Ample Room for Sustainable Investing to Grow in the U.S.]( [Does Delaying Social Security Deliver an 8% Return?]( Latest Analyst Reports [MercadoLibre]( [Ameriprise Financial]( [Merck]( [Roche]( [Monster Beverage]( ABOUT OUR EMAIL TO UNSUBSCRIBE this email address to the Stock Strategist newsletter, please click "reply" and then click "send." This will unsubscribe only this email address to this specific newsletter. All subscription changes will take effect within one business day. Replies are not read by individuals, so please do not use this for queries about Morningstar.com. If you have questions about Morningstar.com or your membership, send a note to [joe@morningstar.com](mailto:%20joe@morningstar.com). ABOUT OUR PRIVACY POLICY Please [click here]( to learn about Morningstar's privacy policy. (c) Copyright 2020. Morningstar, Inc. 22 West Washington Chicago, Illinois, 60602 All rights reserved.