☕️ Catastrophe

Why AI isn't taking your job yet... January 23, 2024 [View Online]( | [Sign Up]( | [Shop]( [Morning Brew]( PRESENTED BY [Hear.com]( Good morning. The Academy Award nominations will be released this morning, but the Oscars’ evil twin, the Razzies, got a head start yesterday by [unveiling]( their noms for the worst movies and performances of the past year. Expend4bles led the pack with seven nominations, while Chris Evans and Jennifer Lopez could suffer the ignobility of being awarded worst actor/actress. Three Razzies fun facts: - Sylvester Stallone has the most Razzies of any actor, with 10. - Aerosmith’s “I Don’t Want to Miss a Thing” from Armageddon was nominated for both a Razzie (Worst Original Song) and an Oscar (Best Original Song). - Alan Menken, the composer of your favorite Disney songs, is the only member of the REGOT club—people who have won a Razzie, Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, and Tony. —Cassandra Cassidy, Molly Liebergall, Sam Klebanov, Abby Rubenstein, Neal Freyman MARKETS Nasdaq 15,360.29 +0.32% S&P 4,850.43 +0.22% Dow 38,001.81 +0.36% 10-Year 4.094% -5.2 bps Bitcoin $39,635.56 -4.62% Rumble $4.89 +36.21% *Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 4:00am ET. [Here's what these numbers mean.]( - Markets: The Dow and the S&P 500 are in their Usain Bolt era—they just keep breaking records. Both hit [new highs]( again yesterday after doing the same on Friday. Rumble, the video platform that bills itself as cancel culture-free, spiked after announcing a partnership with Barstool Sports, adding more than $400 million to its value.  FINANCE [Hedge funds got a boost from betting against disasters]( [Wreckage in the wake of Hurricane Ian in Florida]( Win McNamee/Getty Images We’ve all seen the headlines about how extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and more disastrous, but one group is surprisingly optimistic that the worst catastrophes won’t happen: hedge funds. A record $16.4 billion of catastrophe bonds were issued in 2023, and top hedge funds snapped up many of them, which helped them reach [historic profits]( according to Bloomberg. What are they? Catastrophe bonds, or cat bonds, are insurance-linked securities that pay outsized returns if a natural disaster doesn’t happen. The investor puts up collateral to be used if the disaster occurs, but gets it back if it doesn’t—and earns interest along the way. - They entail precise, contractually predefined terms of what qualifies as a catastrophe (like how high the water got in a flood), and if the disaster does not meet those specific criteria, then the bondholder doesn’t have to shell out money. - As the risk of catastrophe increases with climate change, so does the risk premium (i.e., profit). It’s a win-win: Cat bonds also [benefit]( insurers because they shift some of the burden of paying out when disasters strike to hedge funds and other buyers like pension plans and very rich individuals. FEMA issued $275 million in cat bonds earlier this year to bolster the National Flood Insurance Program. The World Bank issued $350 million in cat bonds last year to help insure Chile against earthquake and tsunami damage. And it probably won’t be the last time. Experts predict the cat bond market will expand with more bonds covering wildfires, one of the biggest threats from climate change, and cyberattacks, which first came on the market last year. It’s not just the cat bonds Last year, hedge funds [performed]( like they were Radiohead in 1997. - The top 20 firms—including TCI, Viking, Citadel, and, for the first time since 2015, Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management—made a record $67 billion in profits. - There was one clear winner: Citadel, the Ken Griffin-led fund, made $16 billion—the largest annual gain in history by a hedge fund, according to LCH Investments. So, how’d they do it? Big risks pay big prizes. LCH credited Citadel’s performance to aggressive bets in the stock market that paid off when share prices ballooned.—CC   PRESENTED BY HEAR.COM [The future of hearing tech]( [Hear.com]( Say hello to [hear.com’s new IX hearing aid](. This tiny German hearing aid is taking the US by storm this year. Why? Partly because it’s tiny. Like secret-agent-device tiny. And partly because it boasts the world’s [first-ever dual-processing system]( with double the power comes double the clarity. In non-science-y talk…you get maximum speech clarity with minimal background noise. And you get it from a device so small, it hides completely behind your ear. Ready to join the 385k+ who can hear with crystal clarity thanks to these game-changing hearing aids? Take advantage of [hear.com’s 45-day no-risk trial](. WORLD [Tour de headlines](#) [Donald Trump at a rally in New Hampshire]Scott Eisen/Getty Images New Hampshire votes today. All eyes will be on the nation’s 41st-most-populous state tonight when the results roll in from New Hampshire’s [presidential primary](. Because New Hampshire holds the earliest primary (sorry, Iowa, you’ll always be just a caucus), it’s considered an indicator of what’s to come. On the Republican side, with Ron DeSantis’s recent decision to bow out, the votes will show whether Nikki Haley has any shot at taking on the front-runner, former President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, the Democrats have drama over…scheduling. President Biden supported the party’s efforts to strip New Hampshire of its first primary status, leading the state to leave him off the ballot in its unsanctioned primary, though supporters are expected to write him in. The FAA wants to check the door plugs on another Boeing model. Because you can never be too careful after a hole appears midair on a plane full of people, the Federal Aviation Administration has [recommended]( that airlines inspect the door plugs on all Boeing 737-900ERs “as soon as possible.” The model is distinct from the Boeing 737 Max 9 involved in the recent Alaska Airlines incident where a plane was forced to make an emergency landing after the door plugs blew off, but it has the same door plug design, according to the agency. Airlines including Alaska, Delta, and United said they’ve begun checking planes and don’t expect any disruptions. SCOTUS will let Texas’s border razor wire be cut. By a 5–4 vote reported with a one-page order, the Supreme Court [decided]( that border agencies may remove the sharp wire that Texas installed to deter migrants from crossing the border into the state from Mexico as a legal battle over the state’s actions continues. It’s the latest development in a high-stakes showdown between the Biden administration and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, over border security and how much power the state has to enforce it, overturning a lower court’s injunction barring agents from getting rid of the barrier. HEALTH [The world’s first malaria vax program rolls out in Africa]( [Two vials of Mosquirix are held up]( Patrick Meinhardt/Getty Images Screaming infants in Cameroon became the first humans in history to get a routine malaria shot yesterday in a major accomplishment that caps off decades of work to rid Africa of the deadly illness. The [new vaccine]( Mosquirix—developed by GlaxoSmithKline and endorsed by the World Health Organization—is now being given for free to children aged six months or younger at health facilities in Cameroon, where malaria was responsible for 12% of childhood deaths in 2021, according to UNICEF. At stake: The mosquito-borne disease causes more than 600,000 deaths each year, and 95% of them occur in Africa. The vaccine is projected to save tens of thousands of lives, but… It’s not a perfect fix. The four-dose immunization is only suggested for kids up to 17 months old. It’s ~30% effective, starts to wear off in months, and doesn’t stop transmission, so immunized people should also use traditional prevention methods like bed nets, health experts say. Communicating these details will be critical to staving off vaccine hesitancy and achieving widespread immunization, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said. Looking ahead…Cameroon hopes to vaccinate ~250,000 kids by the end of next year, according to [Time](. Nineteen other African countries are planning to start immunization programs this year, which would create too much demand for Mosquirix to handle, but a second malaria vax that only [just received]( WHO approval is expected to roll out this year and ease supply concerns.—ML   TOGETHER WITH ENERGYX [EnergyX]( The next gold rush. Demand for lithium, the essential component in EV batteries, is projected to soar 20x by 2040. Perfect timing for [EnergyX]( technology extracts up to 300% more lithium than traditional methods. That’s why General Motors led a $50m funding round in EnergyX. [And you can invest at their $8/share price before it changes on Feb. 8](. WORK [AI probably won’t take your job soon]( [Digital hand vs. human hand]( Francis Scialabba If you’re looking for an automation-proof career, there are still options besides becoming a nurse or a rodeo clown. Even for jobs that could theoretically be done by AI, replacing human workers often [doesn’t make economic sense]( according to research published yesterday by MIT that was funded by the MIT-IBM Watson AI Lab. The findings suggest that AI adoption will likely go slower than many tech bulls believe. Money vs. machines The [research]( focused on jobs involving tasks that can be handled by a visual recognition AI system (like a baker doing quality checks). AI isn’t (yet) coming for those jobs for the same reason you didn’t see Taylor in concert last summer: It’s too darn expensive. The research shows: - Due to the tech’s high upfront costs, using AI is pricier than simply paying a human to do the work in most cases. - Of all the wages that workers receive in vision-centric jobs, only 23% are for tasks that can be automated in a financially feasible way. While it might not entirely apply to word-slinging tools like ChatGPT, the analysis should comfort workers who regularly have the bejeebers scared out of them by stats about how much of the job market is susceptible to automation. The International Monetary Fund, for instance, recently [estimated]( that almost 40% of jobs worldwide have the potential to be at least partially automated. Things could still speed up…if AI becomes cheaper and more accessible to smaller companies, the MIT researchers warn.—SK   GRAB BAG [Key performance indicators](#) [Two teenage girls on their cell phones at work]Yoga Hosers/Invincible Pictures via Giphy Stat: Think no one wants to work anymore? That’ll definitely get an eye roll from teenagers. Teen employment in the US is at its [highest]( since 2009, with 37% of 16- to 19-year-olds holding a job (or searching for one) in 2023, Labor Department data shows. The uptick in teens working reverses forty years of decline, according to the Washington Post. It helps that the tight labor market means high-schoolers can get jobs that actually pay: Workers aged 16–24 got a 9.8% pay bump last year, which is nearly twice the jump for working people overall, per the Atlanta Fed. Quote: “MY FIRST X VIDEO MADE OVER $250,000! ” MrBeast is killing it on yet another platform: The YouTube star may have been skeptical of Elon Musk’s invitation to post content on X, but his first video shared directly on the app brought in serious cash. Still, the YouTuber warns that your results may vary: His [post]( announcing the sum acknowledged it might be “a bit of a facade,” saying advertisers appeared to have bought ads on the video, upping its revenue. And some users suspect the platform is boosting it, too, by inserting it into their feeds as an [unlabeled ad](. Whatever the reason for the video’s success, MrBeast is using it as an excuse to do what he does best: [give away money](. Read: High School Musical changed everything: An oral history of the Disney Channel Original Movie. ([Morning Brew]( NEWS [What else is brewing](#) - [Macy’s]( rejected a $5.8 billion offer to take it private, setting the stage for a potential hostile takeover. - [Two US Navy SEALs]( lost during a mission to stop a shipment of Iranian weapons from getting to Houthi militants are now considered dead after a search failed to find them, the military said. And yesterday, the US and UK launched [more attacks]( on Houthi targets in Yemen. - [Joel Embiid]( scored 70 points against the Spurs last night, passing Wilt Chamberlain for the most points scored by a Sixers player in a game in franchise history. - [President Biden]( marked the anniversary of the landmark Roe v. Wade decision (since overturned) by announcing new initiatives aimed at increasing access to abortion and contraceptives. - [Elon Musk]( visited Auschwitz and participated in a memorial service there amid controversy over whether X properly moderates antisemitic posts. - [The Dana-Farber Cancer Institute]( a Harvard teaching hospital, wants to retract six papers and correct another 31 as part of an ongoing review conducted after a biologist claimed researchers there, including the CEO, fudged data and images. - [Applebee’s]( $200 subscription pass for a weekly date night sold out in minutes, so we suppose that answers TikTok’s question about whether it’s an acceptable date spot. RECS [Tuesday To Do List] Jaiden, we hardly knew ye: The [baby names]( at risk of disappearing this year. Train of thought: How the NYC subway can help you convert [Celsius temps to Fahrenheit](. Visualize your next trip: Get inspired by the [winners]( of the Travel Photographer of the Year awards. He’s talented: Watch [the trailer]( for Netflix’s new Ripley series, starring the suddenly everywhere Andrew Scott. Up to 90% off every flight, forever: Think Italy from $291 or Hawaii from $161 round trip. For 12 hours, get 93% off lifetime access to [Dollar Flight Club]( for $129 (was $1,690). [Start traveling]( Hit send: Want a better relationship with your customers? [Text ’em](. This Harvard Business Review Analytic Services report, sponsored by Intuit Mailchimp, digs into how SMS marketing can boost sales + revenue. [Check it out]( *A message from our sponsor. GAMES [The puzzle section](#) Brew Mini: After solving today’s Mini, you’ll want to party like Jason Kelce at the Chiefs game. [Play it here](. New Hampshire trivia Today is the New Hampshire primary, so let’s see how well you know the Granite State, from the shores of Lake Winnipesaukee to the summits of the White Mountains. Below are seven clues about New Hampshire—answer 5/7 and you win an automatic invite to Laconia Motorcycle Week. - Capital city - Largest city (by population) - Highest peak - Motto - Nickname for University of New Hampshire sports teams - The high school attended by Mark Zuckerberg, Caroline Calloway, Andrew Yang, Claudine Gay, and Gore Vidal - The shoe company headquartered in Stratham (bought by VF Corporation for $2 billion in 2011) FROM THE CREW [Keep it simple]( [A gif from the Simpsons with a hippie saying ]( The Simpsons/20th Century Television via Giphy Wrestling with Excel shouldn’t take up your whole workday. In a FREE workshop with Miss Excel, you’ll learn hidden tricks for optimizing your spreadsheets by mastering Lookup Functions and leveraging Excel shortcuts. The live session happens tomorrow, Jan. 24, at noon ET—[sign up today](. ANSWER - Concord - Manchester - Mt. Washington - “Live Free or Die” - Wildcats - Phillips Exeter Academy - Timberland ✳︎ A Note From EnergyX This is a paid advertisement for EnergyX’s Regulation A+ Offering. Please read the offering circular at [invest.energyx.com/](. Written by [Neal Freyman]( [Abigail Rubenstein]( [Cassandra Cassidy]( [Molly Liebergall]( and Sam Klebanov Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up [here](. Get smarter in just 5 minutes - Money & Career: [Money With Katie](  [Raise](  [Bossy]( Interested in podcasts? - Check out ours [here]( [ADVERTISE]( // [CAREERS]( // [SHOP]( // [FAQ]( Update your email preferences or unsubscribe [here](. View our privacy policy [here](. Copyright © 2024 Morning Brew. All rights reserved. 22 W 19th St, 4th Floor, New York, NY 10011