☕ Going Nuclear

Will Russia actually use a nuclear weapon? October 08, 2022 [View Online]( | [Sign Up]( | [Shop]( [Morning Brew]( TOGETHER WITH [Remi]( Good morning. Thanks for taking a little time away from Googling “pumpkin patch near me” to read the Brew. It wouldn’t be the first time that a squash got more attention than us. —Neal Freyman, Abby Rubenstein, Matty Merritt, Max Knoblauch MARKETS Nasdaq 10,652.40 -3.80% S&P 3,639.66 -2.80% Dow 29,296.79 -2.11% 10-Year 3.885% +6.2 bps Bitcoin $19,463.40 -2.80% AMD $58.44 -13.87% *Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 2:00am ET. [Here's what these numbers mean.]( - Markets: Stocks [nose-dived]( yesterday as the September jobs report delivered a nastier punch than Draymond Green. What did it show? That the labor market cooled off last month, but not enough for the Fed to ease up on its interest rate hikes. Expect a fourth-straight 75 basis point increase at the central bank’s meeting next month. - Stock spotlight: While nearly 95% of S&P stocks were in the red yesterday, chipmakers have to be singled out for their [dire warnings]( about the economy. AMD and Samsung both revealed this week that demand for their chips has plunged recently—a bad omen for the entire tech sector. GEOPOLITICS Will Russia launch nukes? [Russian nuclear missile rolls along Red Square]( Alexander Nemenov/Getty Images On Thursday night the president of the United States [warned]( that the risk of nuclear “Armageddon” was the highest it’s been since the Cuban missile crisis 60 years ago. Presidents don’t exactly throw the A-word around every day, so we should probably talk about this a bit more. The path to nuclear According to Biden and foreign policy experts, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been making increasingly rash decisions after suffering mounting battlefield losses to Ukrainian forces (decisions like conscripting 300,000 reservists and illegally annexing four Ukrainian territories). And a growing number of Russians, including one inside Putin’s inner circle, are criticizing his management of the war. With Putin facing intense pressure to show results, President Biden warned that Russia’s leader is “not joking” about potentially using nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons. Putin hasn’t explicitly said he would resort to such tactics, but in a televised speech last month he did declare that Russia would “use all the means at our disposal” if its territory was threatened and that “this is not a bluff.” What does Russia have at its disposal? The Federation of American Scientists estimates that Russia has about [4,500 active nuclear warheads](. Most of them are strategic nuclear weapons that cover long distances (think: nuclear holocaust), while the rest are tactical, more-limited weapons that Russia would be likelier to deploy in this war. But the word “limited” when applied to a nuclear warhead still translates to unimaginable destruction—some tactical nukes are more powerful than the atomic bombs the US dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Let’s take a deep breath and put down the canned beans. While Biden foresees a possible end to the world, other US defense officials don’t consider this a code-red moment. “We do not presently see indications about the imminent use of nuclear weapons,” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said last week. Other analysts have argued that when Putin said, “This is not a bluff,” it actually was a bluff to scare off other countries from helping Ukraine. Still, Putin’s escalating threats have some analysts claiming that the threat of nuclear war is vastly underappreciated in society, and that Armageddon is not quite as “unthinkable” as you might…think.—NF �  �  �  mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20this%20story%20from%20Morning%20Brew%21&body=Will%20Russia%20launch%20nukes%3F%3A%20https%3A%2F%2Fwww.morningbrew.com%2Fdaily%2Fstories%2F2022%2F10%2F07%2Fwill-russia-launch-nukes%3Futm_campaign%3Dmb%26utm_medium%3Dnewsletter%26utm_source%3Dmorning_brew%0A%0AWant%20more%20great%20content%3F%20Subscribe%20to%20Daily%20Brew%20%E2%80%94%20Delivering%20the%20latest%20business%20news%20from%20Wall%20St.%20to%20Silicon%20Valley%20daily.%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.morningbrew.com%2Fdaily%2Fr%2F%3Fkid%3D4904f90a%26utm_source%3Demail_share%0A WORLD [Tour de headlines](#) [Police vehicles in front of a Uvalde school]Pedro Salazar/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images Uvalde school district suspended its police force. The Texas district’s [decision]( yesterday to remove the whole force came after reports that a former state trooper who had been part of the slow response to the deadly shooting at Robb Elementary in May had been hired by the school system’s force. The Texas Department of Public Safety will provide extra troopers on campus and for extracurricular activities, as victims’ families continue to press for consequences for all the officers involved in the bungled police response. The fallout is likely to continue: District Superintendent Hal Harrell also announced his retirement yesterday. US hopes third time’s a charm for EU data-sharing deal. President Biden signed an [executive order]( yesterday laying out a privacy framework for personal data shared from Europe, after a European court struck down two prior attempts. Apparently, the court wasn’t thrilled with how easy it was for US intelligence agencies to access the data, so the new deal has more safeguards. Having a deal in place is important for US companies, and for maintaining what the administration noted is a $7.1 trillion economic relationship with the EU. Sending chips to China just got a lot harder. Sweeping new US export controls announced yesterday aim to cut China off from [advanced semiconductors]( used for artificial intelligence, supercomputers, and weapons, as well as the tools needed to make them. The new rules not only require US companies to get special permission to send the chips to China, they also ban countries worldwide from selling to China if they’re made with US equipment. The broad controls are another sign of escalating tensions between the two countries as the US tries to hobble China’s technological capabilities, which one Chinese official decried as “sci-tech hegemony.” TOGETHER WITH REMI [Stressin’ in your sleep?]( [Remi]( After catchin’ up on those much-needed zzz’s, it’s not uncommon to wake up and feel the effects of clenching and grinding your teeth. In fact, 1 in 4 adults do. [Remi](’s Custom Night Guards to the rescue: Made of dental-grade BPA-free plastic, they’re designed to help you get a better night’s sleep and a better smile. Order an impression kit to map your bite pattern, mail it back with the prepaid label, and voila! You’ll get top and bottom custom night guards delivered right to your doorstep. Not only do they cost 80% less than what you’d get from the dentist (and are FSA/HSA eligible), but you can also get a brand-new set every 6 months for only $49. Stop stressin’ and start smilin’ today. [Use code BREW20 for 20% off](. �  �  �  ECONOMY Return of the stimmys [check book with scattered checks address to different state's residents]( Francis Scialabba If you see a Californian staring at their computer this weekend, they aren’t working on their screenplay for once. They are probably refreshing their accounts to see if their one-time inflation relief payment hit. The state started [sending]( payments of up to $1,050 to 23 million residents yesterday. Not the only one handing out CAsh At least 14 other states including Florida and New York are planning to send out stimulus checks this year. Why now? People are struggling to keep up with rising prices, and a number of states are sitting on huge budget surpluses. Plus, tax cuts aren’t quite as sexy as free money (especially ahead of the midterms). - CA’s $9.5 billion direct deposit experiment is being funded by a record $97.5 billion budget surplus. Will this make inflation worse? Experts are split. One Harvard economist argued that the payments could shift the inflation burden onto the rest of the US. But Gov. Newsom’s spokesperson said the checks will hardly make a dent since they represent just 0.3% of the state’s economy, and that most people will use the money to pad savings or pay off debt. See if [your state]( is sending out cash.—MM �  �  �  mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20this%20story%20from%20Morning%20Brew%21&body=Return%20of%20the%20stimmys%3A%20https%3A%2F%2Fwww.morningbrew.com%2Fdaily%2Fstories%2Fcalifornia-and-other-states-prepares-for-another-stimulus-check%3Futm_campaign%3Dmb%26utm_medium%3Dnewsletter%26utm_source%3Dmorning_brew%0A%0AWant%20more%20great%20content%3F%20Subscribe%20to%20Daily%20Brew%20%E2%80%94%20Delivering%20the%20latest%20business%20news%20from%20Wall%20St.%20to%20Silicon%20Valley%20daily.%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.morningbrew.com%2Fdaily%2Fr%2F%3Fkid%3D4904f90a%26utm_source%3Demail_share%0A INTERNATIONAL Another army desires BTS [BTS in military uniforms]Photo Illustration: Dianna “Mick” McDougall, Photos: Getty Images South Korea’s military may be about to get seven talented new recruits: the members of K-pop supergroup BTS. A high-ranking official said yesterday it would be [“desirable”]( for the stars to participate in the nation’s mandatory 18+ months of service for men to ensure fairness. There are exemptions that allow shorter terms for accomplished athletes (like soccer star Son Heung-min) and classical musicians, but there are none for K-pop artists. At least not yet—one was proposed in September. The government has kept BTS from being conscripted before. In 2020, as Jin, the group’s oldest member, was nearing the age 28 cutoff, legislators passed a law (popularly known as the “BTS law”) that revised the nation’s Military Service Act to let K-pop stars wait until they turn 30 to join up. Why are lawmakers such fans? The beloved band isn’t just a source of reliable soft power to pedal around the world—it’s also a major economic force. - Before the pandemic halted concerts in 2020 and the band paused for solo projects this summer, BTS was estimated to contribute $3.6 billion to the Korean economy per year—making its participation about equal to 26 mid-size companies. When will we know about the blood, sweat & tears? Korea’s culture minister has said the decision will come before Jin’s 30th birthday in December.—AR �  �  �  mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20this%20story%20from%20Morning%20Brew%21&body=Another%20army%20desires%20BTS%3A%20https%3A%2F%2Fwww.morningbrew.com%2Fdaily%2Fstories%2F2022%2F10%2F07%2Fbts-may-face-military-conscription%3Futm_campaign%3Dmb%26utm_medium%3Dnewsletter%26utm_source%3Dmorning_brew%0A%0AWant%20more%20great%20content%3F%20Subscribe%20to%20Daily%20Brew%20%E2%80%94%20Delivering%20the%20latest%20business%20news%20from%20Wall%20St.%20to%20Silicon%20Valley%20daily.%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.morningbrew.com%2Fdaily%2Fr%2F%3Fkid%3D4904f90a%26utm_source%3Demail_share%0A TOGETHER WITH VANTA [Vanta]( Simplify and comply. Businesses rely on risk assessment to meet compliance requirements *and* maintain customer trust—but managing that risk can get tricky. Join Vanta’s upcoming webinar to see how [tooling and automation]( can streamline (and simplify) your risk assessment process. [Register here](. �  �  �  GRAB BAG [Key performance indicators](#) [A older man gets a Covid vaccine]Alejandro Martinez Velez/Europa Press via Getty Images Stat: The numbers are in on Covid vaccines, and the government says the jabs [saved]( at least 330,000 older Americans from coronavirus-related deaths and prevented as many as 680,000 hospitalizations in 2021. Though Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra noted “you can’t really put a price tag on the value of saving someone’s life,” Medicare also saved some $16 billion thanks to vaccines. Meanwhile, with a winter surge expected, only about 4% of eligible Americans have gotten the newest Omicron-targeting booster. Quote: “From today, any price increase is prohibited. Prohibited!” Jerome Powell may not have thought of this one, but Belarus’s President Alexander Lukashenko has come up with a foolproof way to curb rampant inflation: banning [inflation](. His prohibition on all consumer price increases took immediate effect on Thursday, according to state media. It’s not the first time the Putin ally has made a radical proposal: He’s suggested a shot of vodka a day to keep Covid at bay. Read: Do consultants like McKinsey actually do anything useful? ([The Economist]() CARTOON [Saturday sketch](#) [Chess cartoon]Max Knoblauch WHAT ELSE IS BREWING - [The Nobel Peace Prize]( will be shared among a jailed Belarusian activist and a pair of human rights groups from Russia and Ukraine. - [Credit Suisse]( is trying to get past those rumors it’s the next Lehman Bros. by offering to buy back $3 billion in bonds and putting a luxury hotel it owns up for sale. - [The National Gallery]( said one of its Vermeer paintings…wasn’t a Vermeer after the pandemic gave the museum time to examine it. - [A pink diamond]( sold for $49.9 million in Hong Kong yesterday, setting a new per carat record for auction prices (we’re told it was also very tasteful). BREW'S BETS Weekend conversation starters: - What is [quantum entanglement]( (and why do scientists think it’s spooky)? - Who’s a better Mario: [Bob Hoskins]( or [Chris Pratt](? - Which Lego car would keep your minifigures [safest in a crash](? - What’s the [fiercest creature]( in the sea? A day in the life: a time-lapse video that shows how much [plants move]( in 24 hours. Your brain on dogs: a new study on why [petting pups]( is good for you. GAMES [The puzzle section](#) Brew crossword: Go for gold in today’s full-size crossword. [Play it here](. Open house Welcome to Open House, the only newsletter section vulnerable to pump-and-dump schemes. We’ll give you a few facts about a listing and you try to guess the price. [Open house slideshow of house covered in crypto decor. Bored Ape Yacht club, Ethereum, Bitcoin, Shiba inu, and Cyber Punk wallpaper.]MLS Today’s [home]( is located in North Hollywood, CA, and is the perfect place to bring a date back for a nightcap after hitting the Bored Ape Yacht Club. The 2,012-square-foot home with gaudy, crypto-themed decor has plenty of storage space (even though everything you own is on the blockchain). Amenities include: - 4 beds, 3 baths - Fun-shaped pool - Decentralized cooling (wall units) How much to HODL the keys? [New Excel collection available now]( [New Excel collection available now]( If you’re an aspiring freak in the sheets, this is the collection for you. Release your inner spreadsheet wiz and [shop the Excel Collection now](. Investing in a recession can be one of the strongest moves you make if you know what to look for. Anish Mitra worked on Wall Street for 10 years and has all the best practices to help make your portfolio go up, even if the market is down. [Watch here](. Between vertical farms and synthetic foods, farming may look very different in the future. [Check out what’s in store for the future of food](. FROM THE CREW [Discount tickets to Retail Brew’s summit](#) How does Athletic Greens continue to grow so freakin’ fast? And why have Crocs, of all brands, been popping off? Those answers can be found at The SKU: A Retail Brew Summit on October 25. Use code “SKU25” by Wednesday, October 12, to get 25% off. [Register here]( ANSWER $1.2 million (~61 BTC) � � � � � Written by [Abigail Rubenstein](, [Matty Merritt](, [Neal Freyman](, and [Max Knoblauch]( Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up [here](. Accelerate Your Career with our Courses → - [Business Essentials Accelerator](: Become a better communicator, operator, and innovator. - [Leadership Accelerator](: Grow your team, grow yourself, grow your impact. [ADVERTISE]( // [CAREERS]( // [SHOP]( // [FAQ]( Update your email preferences or unsubscribe [here](. View our privacy policy [here](. 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