☕ USD FTW

Who wins and who loses from the surging US dollar... July 18, 2022 [View Online]( | [Sign Up]( | [Shop]( [Morning Brew]( TOGETHER WITH [Fundrise]( Good morning. The summer is a perfect time to take a step back and think about ways you can level up in your career—which is why the Brew is excited to offer courses that will help you get where you want to go. Starting this September, we’re offering: - Business Essentials Accelerator - Business Analytics Accelerator - Leadership Accelerator In each course, you’ll learn from respected leaders across industries and develop a strong network of amazing folks after graduation. Early bird pricing has been extended and ends this Friday, July 22. [Learn more here](. —Neal Freyman MARKETS: YEAR-TO-DATE Nasdaq 11,452.42 -26.80% S&P 3,863.16 -18.95% Dow 31,288.26 -13.90% 10-Year 2.919% +140.5 bps Bitcoin $21,007.72 -54.63% Oil $97.87 +30.13% *Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 9:00pm ET. [Here's what these numbers mean.]( - Markets: A Friday surge was too little too late for the stock market, which posted yet [another losing week](. A heavy slate of earnings should be the main market-moving force in the days ahead. CURRENCY [The dollar is surging: Who wins and who loses?]( [Homer Simpson offering a bribe of US currency](20th Television Animation/The Simpsons via Giphy The US dollar is giving off Main Character Energy. The world’s most important currency, accounting for $6 trillion in daily economic activity pre-pandemic, is the [strongest]( it’s been in 20 years. Just last week, USD hit 1:1 parity against the euro for the first time since 2002. But as a mighty dollar ripples through the global economy in profound ways, its impacts are being felt unequally—for some, it’s a major boost; for others, a drag. Before we get into winners and losers: Why is this happening? Much of the dollar’s rise can be attributed to the Federal Reserve. In its quest to fight inflation, the Fed has been hiking interest rates harder, faster, and stronger than other central banks around the world. Higher interest rates make the US more attractive to investors looking for a return, and those inflows have pushed the dollar even higher. The winners American tourists: When the US dollar rises in value compared to foreign currencies, Americans get more bang for their buck when traveling abroad. Companies that cater to those tourists: All the Americans thronging European cities like Paris this summer are a boon to sellers of luxury goods. UK-based Burberry, for one, said that currency movements would boost revenue by more than $200 million this year. The Fed: A stronger dollar means [lower prices]( for imports into the US—which is key to the central bank’s goal of bringing down inflation. In the past year, prices of imports (excluding fuel) contributed to half of the increase in consumer prices, per WaPo. But in June, they dropped for the second straight month. Losers Europe and debt-ridden countries: While a booming dollar may help calm inflation in the US, it has the opposite effect in other countries, where weakening currencies are driving up the costs of imports—particularly oil, which is priced in dollars. Countries with a large share of dollar-denominated debt will also be strained to pay back creditors given the dramatic fall of their currencies relative to the dollar. American multinationals: US companies that have sizable operations in other countries get hurt by a rising dollar. Their goods become more expensive abroad (and thus less competitive), and their earnings get eroded when converting international sales back to US currency. Last month, a bunch of US companies, including Microsoft, Salesforce, and Costco, warned that the dollar’s surge would cramp profits. As a rule of thumb, an 8%–10% jump in the dollar causes US company profits to drop by 1% on average, Credit Suisse says. Looking ahead…pressure is mounting on central banks around the world to hike rates in line with the Fed and claw back some of their currencies’ losses against the dollar. �  �  �  mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20this%20story%20from%20Morning%20Brew%21&body=The%20dollar%20is%20surging%3A%20Who%20wins%20and%20who%20loses%3F%3A%20https%3A%2F%2Fwww.morningbrew.com%2Fdaily%2Fstories%2F2022%2F07%2F17%2Fthe-dollar-is-surging-who-wins-and-who-loses%3Futm_campaign%3Dmb%26utm_medium%3Dnewsletter%26utm_source%3Dmorning_brew%0A%0AWant%20more%20great%20content%3F%20Subscribe%20to%20Daily%20Brew%20%E2%80%94%20Delivering%20the%20latest%20business%20news%20from%20Wall%20St.%20to%20Silicon%20Valley%20daily.%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.morningbrew.com%2Fdaily%2Fr%2F%3Fkid%3D4904f90a%26utm_source%3Demail_share%0A TOGETHER WITH FUNDRISE [The real breakfast of champions]( [Fundrise]( Investing in real estate is notoriously complicated. There are profit-eating middlemen, loads of fees, and tons of jargon. Now, not so much. [Fundrise]( has removed these obstacles from the equation and is making it fast and easy to invest in this powerful asset class. Are you thinking, “Does that mean I’ll now own stake in actual buildings and properties across the country?” Heck yeah, that’s what it means. Opportunities like this have (obviously) been open primarily to institutional investors who had the resources to deal with these aforementioned hurdles—but thanks to Fundrise’s tech, now you can get in on this investment. Plus, it’s a way to help achieve the double whammy potential of investing: portfolio growth and stability. So if you want to join the largest direct-to-investor real estate investment platform—along with 300,000 other people building a powerful and resilient portfolio—[check out Fundrise today](. Here’s a limited-time bonus: [Get $10 when you place your first investment, right here](. WORLD [Tour de headlines](#) [Robb Elementary School is covered in flowers and gifts]Brandon Bell/Getty Images Uvalde report shows “systemic failures” in response to shooting. Nearly 400 law enforcement officers were [at the scene]( of a mass shooting at an elementary school in Uvalde, TX, in May, but the gunman was still able to kill 21 people due to “egregiously poor decision making.” That was the finding of a report—the most comprehensive yet—compiled by an investigative committee from the TX House of Representatives and released to family members of the victims. Gas prices on the comedown. Retail gas prices in the US have fallen for 32 straight days as of Saturday, Gas Buddy said, and now stand at an average of $4.532/gallon from their peak of $5.014 last month, per AAA. Whether that relief will stick around is anyone’s guess. Some analysts are [warning]( that another round of sanctions on Russian oil exports, which is set to take effect on Dec. 5, could lead to a spike in the fall. Cruz says SCOTUS gay marriage ruling “clearly wrong.” Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas became the latest GOP lawmaker to [condemn]( the Supreme Court’s 2015 decision that legalized gay marriage. Democrats have warned that the recent overturning of Roe v. Wade could lead to the chipping away of other legal precedents, such as the right to contraception and gay marriage. But some GOP senators, such as Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, believe that the court won’t revisit those rulings. CLIMATE [Europe...so hot right now]( [Tourists fill the Levante beach in Benidorm to quench high temperatures as a heatwave sweeps across Spain](Zowy Voeten/Getty Images The weather is so hot in Europe that maybe they’ll start considering putting ice in their drinks. A heat wave [roasted]( Spain and Italy last week, and the UK is bracing for record-breaking temps today and tomorrow. With forecasts calling for unprecedented heat of 104 degrees Fahrenheit, the government issued its first-ever “extreme warning” for parts of England, and the transportation authority Transport for London urged people to only travel if necessary. While Brew readers in the Southwest US might look at 104 and say, “Just another Monday,” Brits rarely experience extreme heat, and therefore [don’t have the infrastructure]( to cope with it: Just 1% of buildings in the UK have fixed cooling systems, and 3%–5% have the portable variety, according to the FT. Zoom out: The current heat wave, which scientists say is partly fueled by climate change, has already led to more than 1,000 deaths across Portugal and Spain, and has exacerbated wildfires that are raging in Spain, Greece, and France. The weather has [remained steamy]( over here in the US, too. Austin, TX, just posted its hottest seven-day period in recorded history, while temperatures are forecast to break records in parts of the Great Plains this week. �  �  �  mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20this%20story%20from%20Morning%20Brew%21&body=Europe...so%20hot%20right%20now%3A%20https%3A%2F%2Fwww.morningbrew.com%2Fdaily%2Fstories%2F2022%2F07%2F17%2Fextreme-temperatures-wildfires-roast-europe%3Futm_campaign%3Dmb%26utm_medium%3Dnewsletter%26utm_source%3Dmorning_brew%0A%0AWant%20more%20great%20content%3F%20Subscribe%20to%20Daily%20Brew%20%E2%80%94%20Delivering%20the%20latest%20business%20news%20from%20Wall%20St.%20to%20Silicon%20Valley%20daily.%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.morningbrew.com%2Fdaily%2Fr%2F%3Fkid%3D4904f90a%26utm_source%3Demail_share%0A CALENDAR [The week ahead](#) [A Boeing 777X airplane takes off on its inaugural flight at Paine Field in Everett, Washington on January 25, 2020.]JASON REDMOND/AFP via Getty Images Eyes on the skies: One of the biggest events in the aerospace industry, the [Farnborough Airshow](, returns after a four-year absence. Heavyweight rivals Boeing and Airbus will try to one-up each other with order announcements. Earnings: How did companies handle soaring inflation and jittery consumers in Q2? We’re beginning to find out as earnings season picks up the pace. Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, J&J, Netflix, Tesla, and United Airlines are among the big names reporting this week. MLB All-Star Game: One of America’s greatest traditions, the Home Run Derby, will take place tonight at Dodger Stadium, followed by the All-Star Game tomorrow night. Everything else: - The contempt of Congress trial for former Trump strategist Steve Bannon begins today. - [The Gray Man]( drops on Netflix and in a limited number of theaters. - Shark Week starts on Sunday. For some beachgoers on Long Island, it’s been [Shark Week]( for a while. GRAB BAG [Key performance indicators](#) [Cameron Smith of Australia poses with The Claret Jug in celebration of victory on the eighteenth green during Day Four of The 150th Open at St Andrews Old Course]Stuart Franklin/R&A/R&A via Getty Images Stat: Australian Cameron Smith became the first person named “Cameron” to win a golf major after his [sublime performance]( at the British Open on Sunday. What Miles Teller recently did for mustaches, Cam’s going to do for mullets. Quote: “We know that evil cannot win.” Orthodox priest Vitalii Holoskevych [spoke]( through tears at a funeral for Liza, a four-year-old girl who was one of at least 24 people killed by a Russian missile strike in central Ukraine last week. Moscow, meanwhile, has been ramping up its military assault in eastern and southern Ukraine to prevent Ukrainian forces from launching counterattacks on Russian-held territory. Read: Abortion laws spark profound changes in other medical care. ([Associated Press]() BREW'S BETS Dive back into the week: - Shallow dive: The perfect [birthday party invitation]( - Medium dive: [Bird pictures]( - Deep dive: Try to count the [number of black dots]( in this image - Cannonball: Things you are [allowed to do]( Crypto use cases: To try to convert skeptics, FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried [wrote a thread]( outlining what he considers practical applications of cryptocurrencies and blockchain tech. Vent about inflation: We’ve written a ton about inflation over the past year, but we’d love to hear firsthand how it has impacted real people. Take this [one-minute survey]( to share your experience with inflation. Mind your business: Morning Brew’s Business Casual podcast, that is. Join journalist Nora Ali as she chats with creators, thinkers, and innovators about today’s biggest business stories. Listen to the latest episode, sponsored by Real Vision, [here](. Plants in your pants: Through the sustainable power of plants, DUER makes the world’s most comfortable pants—keeping your legs and the environment happy. [Get 15% off with code MorningBrew](.* *This is sponsored advertising content. WHAT ELSE IS BREWING - [Three people]( were fatally shot when a gunman opened fire at an Indiana mall Sunday evening. An armed civilian shot and killed the gunman, police said. - [Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky]( fired his top two law enforcement officials, accusing their subordinates of treason. - [Ben Affleck]( and Jennifer Lopez got married in Las Vegas. Mazel tov! - [Bob Salem]( of Colorado Springs became the first person in the 21st century to push a peanut using only his nose all the way to the top of Pikes Peak. GAMES [The puzzle section](#) Turntable: If things are a bit slow at work right now, keep your brain sharp by [playing our word game](. Farm animal trivia This [chart]( from Erin Davis shows the most common type of livestock in each county in the US. Can you match the animal to the color? Your options: Goats, sheep, pigs, cows, turkeys, chickens [Map of livestock patterns in the US][erdavis.com]( [Apparel for Rich Girl Summer](#) Slide in! Money with Katie has the merch of your Rich Girl Summer dreams. [Shop the collection](. For more from The Brew: Today is our [free virtual event]( with Stephen J. Dubner of Freakonomics Radio. Learn about data analytics and how to challenge your assumptions. Check out the latest from the Morning Brew podcast slate: - From bops to beignets, how Christina Milian [does it all]( - How Jarrid Tingle went from living on welfare to running a [$170 million Black-owned VC firm]( - [Is pay transparency worth it?]( SHARE THE BREW [Share Morning Brew]( with your friends, acquire free Brew swag, and then acquire more friends as a result of your fresh Brew swag. 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