☕️ Agent of chaos

Why would Putin invade Ukraine? February 14, 2022 [View Online]( | [Sign Up]( | [Shop]( [Morning Brew]( TOGETHER WITH [SimpliSafe]( Good morning. For everyone advocating that the day following the Super Bowl should be a holiday, today…it is. Happy Valentine’s Day. As our V-Day gift to you, we’re releasing a unique puzzle that can be found at the bottom of the newsletter. What is it? Let’s just say Alex Trebek would be proud. —Neal Freyman MARKETS: YEAR-TO-DATE Nasdaq 13,791.15 -11.85% S&P 4,418.64 -7.29% Dow 34,738.06 -4.40% 10-Year 1.943% +42.9 bps Bitcoin $42,323.69 -8.60% Oil $94.10 +25.12% *Stock data as of market close, cryptocurrency data as of 4:00pm ET. [Here's what these numbers mean.]( - Markets: The headlines that moved markets last week—the Fed’s response to inflation, corporate earnings, tensions in Ukraine—will remain [top of mind]( for investors this coming week. Analysts predict that if Russia were to invade Ukraine, oil could top $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014, further thwarting President Biden’s attempts to bring down gas prices. GEOPOLITICS [Why would Putin invade Ukraine?]( [Vladimir Putin](Ozan Kose/AFP via Getty Images The Russia–Ukraine crisis continued to escalate over the weekend, with US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan [warning]( that a Russian invasion could come “essentially at any time.” The Russian government has denied it’s planning a move into Ukraine, but its military has amassed more than 130,000 troops along the border. So if it turns out to be a bluff, it’s a pretty extravagant one. It may leave you wondering…why? Why does Russian President Vladimir Putin want to risk human lives and economic catastrophe over Ukraine? It’s not about acquiring more land, of course. Russia, the world’s largest country by area, has plenty of that. What it is about is far more complex and speculative (since Putin hasn’t exactly explained his reasoning), but it likely boils down to this: In launching an invasion into Ukraine, Putin would be channeling his inner Joker by [unleashing chaos]( in Eastern Europe. But unlike the Joker’s antics, Putin’s chaos serves several aims: - Reassert Russian power that was lost with the collapse of the Soviet Union - Warn Western governments, particularly the US, against increasing their pro-democracy influence in Eastern Europe And Ukraine is key to all that: Of all the former Soviet republics, Ukraine is [most culturally linked]( to Russia, and Putin has even claimed Russia and Ukraine are “one nation.” But Ukraine’s government has irked Putin recently, most symbolically by making preliminary moves to join NATO, an alliance that was created to counter the Soviet Union. Currently, one of Russia’s top demands of the US is a commitment that Ukraine will never join NATO. All of this to say: The stakes are unbelievably high, not just for Ukraine, but for Europe in general. If Russia were to invade Ukraine, “Europeans would suddenly be living in a world where Russia would have a claim to intervene anywhere in its near abroad or even beyond, any time it felt important interests were at stake,” geopolitics analyst Bruno Maçães [wrote](. That’s why Western leaders have been frantically trying to work out a diplomatic resolution. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has called the situation “the biggest security crisis that Europe has faced for decades,” and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said yesterday that a Ukraine invasion is an “assault on democracy.” �  �  �  mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20this%20story%20from%20Morning%20Brew%21&body=Why%20would%20Putin%20invade%20Ukraine%3F%3A%20utm_campaign%3Dmb%26utm_medium%3Dnewsletter%26utm_source%3Dmorning_brew%0A%0AWant%20more%20great%20content%3F%20Subscribe%20to%20Daily%20Brew%20%E2%80%94%20Delivering%20the%20latest%20business%20news%20from%20Wall%20St.%20to%20Silicon%20Valley%2C%20daily.%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.morningbrew.com%2Fdaily%2Fr%2F%3Fkid%3D4904f90a%26utm_source%3Demail_share%0A BUSINESS [Tour de headlines]( [Aaron Donald in the Super Bowl](Allen J. Schaben/Getty Images The LA Rams won the Super Bowl in a [nailbiter]( over the Cincinnati Bengals thanks to some clutch performances from Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald. Everything else about the broadcast leaned heavily into Gen X nostalgia, from the sizzling halftime show (Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, and friends) to the ads (a Sopranos-themed Chevy spot). Oh, and Coinbase was forced to temporarily throttle traffic following its QR code commercial. The Ambassador Bridge was cleared: After a week of protests against Covid restrictions disrupted trade across the US–Canada border, officials [removed]( the final demonstrators in the area and towed away vehicles. “Today, our national economic crisis at the Ambassador Bridge came to an end,” the mayor of Windsor, Ontario, Drew Dilkens, said yesterday. IBM’s youthful makeover under scrutiny: Newly released emails show that top IBM executives were [directly involved]( in pushing the company to get rid of older workers, whom one exec referred to “dinobabies.” The docs were submitted as evidence for a discrimination lawsuit that was filed after a 2018 ProPublica report revealed that IBM [fired]( more than 20,000 American employees aged 40+ in the previous five years. �  �  �  mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20this%20story%20from%20Morning%20Brew%21&body=Tour%20de%20headlines%3A%20utm_campaign%3Dmb%26utm_medium%3Dnewsletter%26utm_source%3Dmorning_brew%0A%0AWant%20more%20great%20content%3F%20Subscribe%20to%20Daily%20Brew%20%E2%80%94%20Delivering%20the%20latest%20business%20news%20from%20Wall%20St.%20to%20Silicon%20Valley%2C%20daily.%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.morningbrew.com%2Fdaily%2Fr%2F%3Fkid%3D4904f90a%26utm_source%3Demail_share%0A FINANCE [The 1MDB scandal goes to trial]( [Former Goldman Sachs banker Roger Ng (R) and his lawyer Marc Agnifilo (L) arrive at US Federal Court in New York. ](Former Goldman Sachs banker Roger Ng (R) and his lawyer Marc Agnifilo (L) arrive at US Federal Court in New York. Yuki Iwamura/AFP via Getty Images. To all the readers who’ve been desperate for a juicy business trial since Elizabeth Holmes was convicted—your wait is over. Roger Ng, the former head of investment banking in Malaysia for Goldman Sachs, will [stand trial]( in New York beginning today. He’s accused of playing a prominent role in a massive laundering scheme that plundered billions from Malaysia’s sovereign wealth fund, 1MDB. The details: In one of Wall Street’s all-time biggest scandals, Goldman Sachs facilitated $6.5 billion in bond sales for 1MDB…but to win the business bankers bribed government officials and later funneled a chunk of the money into extravagant purchases. - Embezzled funds were used to buy a Beverly Hills hotel, a $200 million superyacht, and even to help finance Wolf of Wall Street. The fallout: Goldman Sachs apologized for its role and paid $5 billion in fines, but Ng is the only Goldman Sachs banker to be put on trial in the US over 1MDB. The ringleader of the entire operation, Malaysian tycoon Jho Low, remains at large and is rumored to be hiding out in China. Required reading: [Billion Dollar Whale]( is the definitive book on Low’s historic fraud. �  �  �  mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20this%20story%20from%20Morning%20Brew%21&body=The%201MDB%20scandal%20goes%20to%20trial%3A%20utm_campaign%3Dmb%26utm_medium%3Dnewsletter%26utm_source%3Dmorning_brew%0A%0AWant%20more%20great%20content%3F%20Subscribe%20to%20Daily%20Brew%20%E2%80%94%20Delivering%20the%20latest%20business%20news%20from%20Wall%20St.%20to%20Silicon%20Valley%2C%20daily.%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.morningbrew.com%2Fdaily%2Fr%2F%3Fkid%3D4904f90a%26utm_source%3Demail_share%0A TOGETHER WITH SIMPLISAFE [Burglars won’t steal your heart](#) [SimpliSafe]( They’ll steal your stuff instead—and that’s not very Valentines-y. Looks like some people just can’t let us enjoy our heart-shaped chocolates in peace. So stop these rascals in their tracks and protect your loved ones with the award-winning home security system that even the experts trust: [SimpliSafe](. You can set up the whole system in 30 minutes or less. SimpliSafe’s comprehensive features include sensors that’ll cover every window, room, and door, plus extra assets like smart locks, video doorbells, water sensors, and more. And with [SimpliSafe’s HD indoor and outdoor cameras](, protecting your entire property becomes a piece of cake—special pink Valentine’s Day cake. Plus, their 24/7 professional monitoring service costs less than $1/day. Try it risk-free for 60 days. If it’s not ~true love~, return it for your money back. [Get 25% off your entire system today](. GRAB BAG [Key performance indicators]( [Michael Scott pulling up in his new car](The Office/NBC via Giphy Stat: Thanks to inflation, auto dealers are introducing their own form of surge pricing. More than 80% of US consumers who [bought cars]( in January paid more than the manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP). That share was just 2.8% in January 2021 and 0.3% two years ago. Quote: “It's not a requirement of law, but it's a requirement, I think, of just some generic decency.” Speaking to NBC's Lester Holt before the Super Bowl, President Biden [pushed the NFL]( to improve its woeful track record of hiring minority coaches: In a league where 71% of the players are Black, there are just two active Black head coaches and no Black team owners. Eminem also took a knee following his halftime performance, a gesture that's become synonymous with protesting racial injustice. Read: Inside the bitcoin laundering case that confounded the internet. ([New York Times]() �  �  �  mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20this%20story%20from%20Morning%20Brew%21&body=Key%20performance%20indicators%3A%20utm_campaign%3Dmb%26utm_medium%3Dnewsletter%26utm_source%3Dmorning_brew%0A%0AWant%20more%20great%20content%3F%20Subscribe%20to%20Daily%20Brew%20%E2%80%94%20Delivering%20the%20latest%20business%20news%20from%20Wall%20St.%20to%20Silicon%20Valley%2C%20daily.%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.morningbrew.com%2Fdaily%2Fr%2F%3Fkid%3D4904f90a%26utm_source%3Demail_share%0A CALENDAR [The week ahead]( [Qi Guangpu of Team China performs a trick on a practice run ahead of the Freestyle Skiing Mixed Team Aerials](Ezra Shaw/Getty Images Olympics: The troubled 2022 Beijing Olympics enter their second and final week. Highlights include Eileen Gu in the women’s ski halfpipe (Thursday), the women’s individual figure skating final (Thursday), and the hockey gold medal games (the women’s on Wednesday and men’s on Saturday). Here’s the [current medal count](. Earnings: Walmart, Airbnb, Nvidia, Roblox, and DraftKings will close out one of the wackiest earnings seasons in recent memory. TV/movie releases: The first part of Netflix’s Kanye West documentary drops on Wednesday. Also arriving soon: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel season 4, Severance on Apple TV+, and the long-awaited Uncharted movie. Everything else: - Meta will reportedly hold an all-hands meeting about the metaverse on Tuesday. - The NBA’s All-Star Weekend tips off Friday. �  �  �  mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20this%20story%20from%20Morning%20Brew%21&body=The%20week%20ahead%3A%20utm_campaign%3Dmb%26utm_medium%3Dnewsletter%26utm_source%3Dmorning_brew%0A%0AWant%20more%20great%20content%3F%20Subscribe%20to%20Daily%20Brew%20%E2%80%94%20Delivering%20the%20latest%20business%20news%20from%20Wall%20St.%20to%20Silicon%20Valley%2C%20daily.%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.morningbrew.com%2Fdaily%2Fr%2F%3Fkid%3D4904f90a%26utm_source%3Demail_share%0A WHAT ELSE IS BREWING - [Cent](, the NFT marketplace that sold an NFT of Jack Dorsey’s first tweet, is shutting down most transactions due to “rampant” selling of fake and plagiarized digital tokens. - [The US]( suspended all imports of Mexican avocados on Super Bowl eve after a plant safety inspector in Mexico received a threatening message on his phone. - [American Erin Jackson]( became the first Black woman to win a speedskating medal at the Winter Olympics (she nabbed the gold in the 500 meters). - [Friends]( episodes that were re-released in China appear to have been scrubbed of LGBT content. BREW'S BETS Valentines are sweet, bloating is not: That’s why Sakara’s Metabolism Super Powder is designed to ease bloat and help curb sugar cravings with the powerful Gymnema Sylvestre herb. It’s a tasty blend sure to win your . [Get 20% off with code FEB22BREW](.* Looking for someone to hodl? Discover the power of social investing with 25+ million users on eToro. Ask questions and learn from other investors—and [get $10 when you invest $100 in crypto today](.* The EV afterlife?! Emerging Tech Brew is talking EV battery recycling on 2/24 at 12pm ET. [Register here](. Dive back into the week: - Shallow dive: The [trailer]( for Jordan Peele’s NOPE - Medium dive: [Wild optical illusion]( - Deep dive: Literally. Here are some [deep-sea animals](. - Cannonball: [Predicting 2022 in 2012]( *This is sponsored advertising content GAMES [The puzzle section](#) We teamed up with [The Training Arcade®]( to make a JEOPARDY!® game for Brew readers. [Click here to play](. [Jeopardy! game]( SHARE THE BREW We think you should [share the Brew.]( Not only is it a smart thing to do for your friends, it’s also the smartest way to get showered in free Brew swag. Your referral count: 0 [Click to Share]( Or copy & paste your referral link to others: [morningbrew.com/daily/r/?kid=4904f90a]( ✤ A Note From eToro Securities trading through eToro USA Securities, Inc. Member of FINRA and SIPC. Crypto Trading through eToro USA LLC, not FDIC insured.  � � � � � Written by [Neal Freyman]( Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up [here](. WANT MORE BREW? 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