Football...is that you?
September 08, 2020 [View Online]( | [Sign Up](
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Good morning and welcome back. Working from home almost makes us miss the mindless office small talk that follows every long weekend. Almost. Â
So let's cut the chit chat and get right to the good stuff. Reed Hastings, the co-CEO of Netflix (small, DVD-selling outfit), is the special guest on the latest episode of Business Casual. Give it a listen: [Spotify]( / [Apple](.Â
MARKETS YTD PERFORMANCE
NASDAQ
11,313.13
+ 26.09%
S&P
3,426.96
+ 6.07%
DJIA
28,133.31
- 1.42%
GOLD
1,934.60
+ 27.28%
10-YR
0.721%
- 119.90 bps
OIL
39.12
- 36.09%
*As of market close
- Markets: U.S. investors were happy for the [breather]( yesterday, after a steep sell-off in technology shares last week halted stocks' David Blaine-like ascension.
- COVID-19: [India]( passed Brazil for the second-largest number of cases at 4.2+ million. The U.S. has over 6 million. The three countries together account for more than half of the world's cases.Â
PUBLIC HEALTH
[The âNew Normalâ Is Here](
[Man playing guitar on stage with people watching in their cars]
Matt Winkelmeyer/Getty Images
Remember in May when all of us were trying to figure out our âNew Normalâ during the pandemic? Well, we can stop speculating, because six months in, the âNew Normalâ is here. Weâre living in it.Â
What have we learned?
Masks: We wear them all the time, especially in indoor public spaces where they're often mandated. They can lead to "[enormous economic gains](" by slowing the virus's spread, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week.Â
School, having restarted across much of the U.S., is a patchwork of online and in-person formats. NYC is the only major school district in the country to opt for in-person learning in Septemberâclasses begin in two weeks.Â
- In higher ed, hundreds of colleges that had planned on bringing students to campus have [reversed their stances]( and decided on a virtual semester. Temple University in Philadelphia just [canceled]( in-person classes after students were on campus for all of two weeks.Â
Travel: People are doing it, but not as much, and mostly on the ground. Air travel is stuck at about 33% of pre-pandemic levels, and airlines are [slashing fees]( to get people in seats.Â
- Closer to sea level, people are rediscovering nature. State parks in places like Wyoming welcomed a [record number]( of visitors, while âremote staysâ on Airbnb have [almost doubled](. Â
Sports: a TV-only experience. Professional sports leagues have restarted successfully (the vast majority playing without any fans), but in the college world, several major conferences like the Big 10 [postponed]( fall sports.Â
Entertainment: slowly creeping back. This weekend, Christopher Nolanâs Tenet became the first major blockbuster to hit U.S. movie theaters since the pandemic began, bringing in $20.2 million in North America. About [70% of movie theaters]( in the U.S. are currently open. Â
Work: It depends on your industry. If you work at a big tech firm like Google, chances are youâre going to WFH until the summer of 2021, or maybe forever. But thatâs not the expectation in other industries, such as finance. Beginning yesterday, 50% of JPMorganâs investment bankers will be returning to their [NYC or London offices](.
Looking ahead...the warm weather has allowed many socially distant activities, such as outdoor dining, to continue. But winter is coming, and our New Normal could look very different come Thanksgiving.Â
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INVESTING
[Investors Take a Hard Look at SoftBank](
Shares of the Japanese tech conglomerate SoftBank [fell more than 7% yesterday]( as investors questioned its unusual options trades betting on American big tech companies.Â
- Whatâs the trade? We don't know the specifics, but analysts believe SoftBank has seen over [$4 billion in unrealized gains]( on multiple monster options trades that hinge on tech stocks like Amazon, Microsoft, and Facebook continuing their meteoric rise.Â
While $4 billion+ in unrealized profits seems like a winner...
Investors are a little worried
The company faces around $30 billion worth of exposure. And while SoftBank, whose $100 billion Vision Fund has made huge investments in companies like WeWork and Uber, has thrown Hail Marys before...Â
- Engaging in tens of billions worth of [options trades]( is âa change in the risk profile of the company,â Astris Advisory Japan analyst David Gibson told the WSJ, and âthe scale is what is concerning.â Â
Bottom line: While the trades appear to be successful as of now, the keyword is âunrealized.â Until SoftBank books a profit, investors will be watching every percentage tick on the Nasdaq.
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GRAB BAG
[Soundbites From the Long Weekend](
[Novak Djokovic]
Al Bello/Getty Images
1. âThe most important thing is to make sure at the end of the month, we donât shut down the government and we get something past the electionââTreasury Sec. Steve Mnuchin. Over the weekend, he and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi [agreed]( to work on a short-term spending bill to avoid an Oct. 1 government shutdown.Â
2. âI think the vaccine supply chain is one of the most mind-bogglingly complex supply chains ever builtââJohns Hopkins Prof. Tinglong Dai [told USA Today](. The CDC, which is overseeing vaccine distribution, is expected to prioritize first responders, frontline healthcare workers, and high-risk individuals.Â
3. "There's no end to this regret"âJapanese billionaire Yusaku Maezawa, who on Sunday admitted to [losing $41 million]( via day trading.
4. âWe all agree that he didnât do it on purpose, but the facts are still that he hit the line umpire and the line umpire was clearly hurtââU.S. Open tournament referee Soeren Friemel, explaining why favorite Novak Djokovic [was disqualified]( after accidentally hitting a line judge in the throat with a tennis ball.Â
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SPONSORED BY RADIUS BANK
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ENERGY
[Itâs a Pipeline Problem](
[Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny]
KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP via Getty Images
Over the weekend, Germanyâs foreign minister [threatened]( to reconsider a multibillion-dollar gas project if Russia doesnât cooperate with an investigation into the poisoning of Alexey Navalny.
The backstory: On Aug. 20, the prominent Putin critic became critically ill after being poisoned with a banned chemical nerve agent. Navalny was flown to Germany and woke up from an induced coma yesterday.
- Germany and France are demanding answers from the Kremlin, though Russian officials deny involvement.
Back to the pipeline
The Nord Stream 2 bypasses Ukraine and will send Russian gas straight to Germany. More than 100 companies from 12 European countries are involved, and it's nearing the finish line.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel [previously tried]( to separate the economics of the pipeline from the spicy politics. But her administration has faced pressure to change course, including from U.S. officials who 1) claim the pipeline will make Germany dependent on Russian gas and 2) want Europe to buy American gas.
Zoom out: With local production down, the EU is a competitive market for gas exports, and Nord Stream 2 would double Russian gas exports to Germany.Â
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CALENDAR
[The Week Ahead: Football, Is That You?](
[Tom Brady]
Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images
What's weirder: Football during a pandemic or Tom Brady wearing a Bucs helmet?
Monday: That was yesterdayÂ
Tuesday: Today; Senate returns from summer recess; earnings (Lululemon, Slack)Â
Wednesday: It's time to liberate Ben Stillerâthe American Museum of Natural History in NYC reopens
Thursday: The NFL kicks off; World Suicide Prevention Day; earnings (Peloton, Oracle, Dave & Busters)Â
Friday: 19th anniversary of 9/11; CPI inflation data; Kroger earnings
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WHAT ELSE IS BREWING
- [Companies]( including Starbucks, Microsoft, Salesforce, and Uber have helped recruit 350,000 employees to serve as poll workers this November.
- [Nongfu Spring](, Chinaâs top bottled-water company, raised $87 billion yesterday in a record-breaking Hong Kong IPO.
- [Samsung]( struck a deal with Verizon to supply the carrier with $6.6 billion of 5G networking equipment.
- [SMIC]( shares fell over 20% yesterday on news the U.S. is considering sanctions against the Chinese chipmaker.
- [A gender-reveal party]( is responsible for one of the wildfires burning in California, officials said.Â
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From the vault:Â Someone resurfaced Nike's [10 original business values](. Our favorite? "We're on offense. All the time."Â
Grape expectations: We recently asked readers of our Essentials newsletter about their favorite bottles of wine; then, we collected those responses into an article for everyone's benefit. Check out readers' [A+ wine recs](.
Polarizing video:Â What do you think of this TikTok [influencer house](?
*This is sponsored advertising content. See Masterworks' important [disclaimer](.
INVENTION TRIVIA
Today's invention trivia comes from [Dr. Anton Howes](. What is this?Â
Public domain
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INVENTION TRIVIA ANSWER
That is a siren.Â
           Â
Written by [Neal Freyman](, [Alex Hickey](, and [Toby Howell](
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