☕️ Curveball

What does Joe Biden mean for the stock market? August 21, 2020 [View Online]( | [Sign Up]( [Daily Brew]( TOGETHER WITH [The Ridge]( Good morning. Summer Fridays in the remote work era: - Productivity at roughly 15% of usual from 9am to 11am - Rosé from a box - Making plans, then bailing because you’re tired …so exactly the same as the regular work era. Have a great weekend, folks. MARKETS NASDAQ 11,264.95 + 1.06% S&P 3,385.56 + 0.32% DJIA 27,740.04 + 0.17% GOLD 1,959.80 - 0.53% 10-YR 0.650% - 3.30 bps OIL 42.62 - 0.72% *As of market close - COVID-19 update: Cases in the U.S. [continue to decline]( following the jump in June and July. Some [European countries](, however, are reporting alarming increases in infections. And [India]( could be getting close to herd immunity from the coronavirus, a new study suggests. GIG ECONOMY [What Does This California Court Have Against Brew Writers?]( [Ride-hailing car stuck in place] Francis Scialabba Yesterday, Uber and Lyft’s conflict with the state of California seemed to reach a major turning point...and then doubled back, sending us scrambling to rewrite this story. Part 1: Lyft announced plans to [suspend its operations]( in the state as of midnight PT. That’s a huge deal, since California accounted for 16% of Lyft’s rides before the pandemic. Part 2: A few hours later, an appeals court extended a deadline, allowing the companies to push the decision off for a few days. The backstory...is Tarantino movie-long, and starts from the ride-hailing companies’ earliest days as gig economy pioneers. Back then they prioritized superspeed growth, signing up drivers en masse—but teetered on the fringes of the law. They hoped to dominate markets before regulators could find their keys. Then in 2019, California passed a law known as AB5, which required ridesharing companies to classify their drivers as employees, rather than contractors. That would force Uber and Lyft to provide drivers benefits such as minimum wage and overtime pay. The companies’ POV Lyft and Uber argue that they’re in the tech biz, not the transportation biz, so drivers don’t serve their “core” functions and therefore shouldn’t be subject to AB5. Plus, they say the reclassification would upend their operations in ways they can’t be expected to accommodate. - Uber [says]( that under AB5, it could only employ about a quarter of the drivers it does now. It’s also not a great time for a pivot. Both companies’ rideshare revenues are in the junkyard because of the pandemic. The legal system sees it differently In May, CA Attorney General Xavier Becerra sued Lyft and Uber to force them to comply with AB5. - Last week, a judge sided with Becerra and gave Lyber a 10-day window (that would have ended today) to get up to code. They filed for an appeal and threatened to shut down in the state. Yesterday, an appeals court extended that window to August 25. Bottom line: The companies may still shut down statewide, it’ll just happen next week. �  �  �  mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20this%20story%20from%20Morning%20Brew!&body=Uber%20and%20Lyft's%20Big%20California%20Decision%20Delayed%20by%20Court:%200A%0AWant%20more%20great%20content%3F%20Subscribe%20to%20Daily%20Brew%E2%80%94Delivering%20the%20latest%20business%20news%20from%20Wall%20St.%20to%20Silicon%20Valley,%20daily.%20 2020 [Uncle Joe No More]( [Joe Biden] OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP via Getty Images That’ll be Democratic Nominee for President Mr. Joseph Robinette Biden, from now on. Last night, Biden formally accepted his party’s nomination for the White House at the Democratic National Convention. What’s Wall Street think? Investors know [Biden’s economic plan]( has some tough-on-business policies, including returning the corporate tax rate to 28%, upping capital gains taxes, and eliminating a popular real estate tax break. But it’s not all bad for biz. Biden’s proposed a $700 billion “Buy American” campaign and a $2 trillion clean energy and infrastructure plan. Investors feeling good about his chances have flocked to [clean-energy stocks](, with some companies hitting all-time highs. Others like his experience navigating recessions. Biden [oversaw the 2009 Recovery Act](, which included tax cuts and unemployment support. - Big Business in general is favoring Dems this year. Of the nearly $800 million donated to candidates by banks, real estate companies, securities firms, and their employees through June 30, over half [went to Democrats](—the first time they’ve outearned Republicans since 2008, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Zoom out: Wall Street is most worried about a disputed election, which could cause volatility for weeks. In 2000, the S&P fell 8.4% between Election Day and Al Gore’s December concession. �  �  �  mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20this%20story%20from%20Morning%20Brew!&body=Joe%20Biden%20Accepts%20Democratic%20Nomination:%200A%0AWant%20more%20great%20content%3F%20Subscribe%20to%20Daily%20Brew%E2%80%94Delivering%20the%20latest%20business%20news%20from%20Wall%20St.%20to%20Silicon%20Valley,%20daily.%20 JOBS [Jobs Missed the Stock Market’s Memo]( [Jobless claims chart for August] [MarketWatch]( Yesterday, the Labor Department reported first-time jobless claims [increased to 1.1 million]( last week, a report that sent economists straight from coffee to Irish coffee. - The week prior was the first time claims dipped below 1 million since March. - It was the 22nd consecutive week claims [exceeded]( those during the worst week of the Great Recession. Every cloud has a silver lining. The total number of Americans collecting unemployment fell from 15.5 million to 14.8 million, the lowest since early April. And sectors like manufacturing, auto sales, and housing are bouncing back. But...it’s still a cloud. Yesterday’s numbers are a reminder the job market’s road to recovery is going to feel like the last three miles before a rest stop. Unemployment’s at 10.2%, and the nearly 9.3 million jobs added over the last three months are nowhere near the 22 million lost between March and April. Sensing pessimism in the air, the IRS shared its own [updated forecasts]( predicting 37.2 million fewer employee-classified jobs next year. It revised 2027 numbers (the furthest out it’ll even try predicting) down nearly 16 million. �  �  �  mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20this%20story%20from%20Morning%20Brew!&body=Jobless%20Claims%20Rise%20Above%201M%20Again:%200A%0AWant%20more%20great%20content%3F%20Subscribe%20to%20Daily%20Brew%E2%80%94Delivering%20the%20latest%20business%20news%20from%20Wall%20St.%20to%20Silicon%20Valley,%20daily.%20 SPONSORED BY THE RIDGE [Bye Bye, Butt Bulge](#) [The Ridge]( Ah, the Butt Bulge. It’s that bulbous bump beckoning from your backside where your overstuffed, unorganized wallet is not-so-successfully hiding. So the efficient, organization-minded people at The Ridge decided to banish the bulge. How? By creating a wallet that’s 60% slimmer and designed to fit in your front pocket. But they didn’t stop there, because how could they? [Ridge wallets]( only use premium materials like carbon, titanium, and aluminum. Plus, they have RFID blocking material for a little extra peace of mind. So when you do effortlessly take out your Ridge wallet, people won’t shudder at its girth. Instead, they’ll be awed by its smooth finishes and efficient design. In other words, it’s [the opposite]( of what your dad would heave out of his back pocket to shortchange the babysitter. Bon voyage, Butt Bulge. Use code BREW to get 10% off [your Ridge wallet with free shipping and 45-day returns right here](. WEATHER [Mother Nature Is Angry]( [California lightning] Justin Sullivan/Getty Images At least 349,000 acres (about 546 square miles) have [burned]( across California as dozens of wildfires force evacuations, destroy buildings, and threaten communities—including in wine country. The fires are a result of what the AP [calls]( an “unprecedented lightning siege” of nearly 11,000 strikes in a few days. [See some crazy pictures](. Meanwhile, in China... Nie Shuang/VCG via Getty Images Water levels at the monstrous Three Gorges Dam reached their [highest levels ever]( following months of downpours in the region. Extreme flooding has led to the displacement of over a million people and caused billions of dollars in direct economic damage.  + While we’re here: The dam, a highly controversial but remarkable engineering achievement, has a [Wikipedia entry]( worth skimming. �  �  �  mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20this%20story%20from%20Morning%20Brew!&body=Nasty%20Weather%20Threatens%20Populations%20Across%20the%20Globe:%200A%0AWant%20more%20great%20content%3F%20Subscribe%20to%20Daily%20Brew%E2%80%94Delivering%20the%20latest%20business%20news%20from%20Wall%20St.%20to%20Silicon%20Valley,%20daily.%20 QUIZ [Quiz of Duty](#) [Weekly news quiz]( The more people who take the Brew's weekly news quiz, the longer summer lasts. It's science. [Take the quiz here](. COMMUNITY [Headline Contest: the Sequel]( Last week, we asked Brew readers to come up with funny headlines for AMC's decision to charge 15 cents per movie when it reopened theaters yesterday (btw, did anyone take advantage?). The headlines were hilarious and the feedback was overwhelmingly positive, so we thought, hey, let’s run it back.  This week’s story Taco Bell just released its latest restaurant concept, “[Go Mobile](,” that’s catered to the pandemic era. It’ll include two drive-thru lanes, parking spaces designated for curbside pickup, and advanced tech execs compared it to an air traffic control room. Taco Bell Feeling inspired? [Share your headline here](. P.S. We award points for originality, so if a digestion-centered headline popped into your head...it probably did for everyone else, too. �  �  �  mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20this%20story%20from%20Morning%20Brew!&body=Can%20You%20Think%20of%20a%20Funny%20Headline%20for%20Taco%20Bell's%20New%20Restaurant%20Concept?:%200A%0AWant%20more%20great%20content%3F%20Subscribe%20to%20Daily%20Brew%E2%80%94Delivering%20the%20latest%20business%20news%20from%20Wall%20St.%20to%20Silicon%20Valley,%20daily.%20 WHAT ELSE IS BREWING - [Steve Bannon](, President Trump’s former chief strategist, was arrested and charged with a scheme to defraud donors. - [American Airlines]( will suspend service to 15 smaller U.S. cities after the federal aid mandating the routes expires in October. - [Tesla]( stock cracked $2,000 ahead of its five-to-one stock split today. It's now more valuable than Walmart. - [Alexei Navalny](, a Russian politician and fierce critic of President Vladimir Putin, is in a coma after a suspected poisoning. - [Peak SPAC](? Former House Speaker Paul Ryan will serve as chairman of a special purpose acquisition company, the investing trend du jour. BREW'S BETS Does investing in crypto seem challenging, confusing, and complex? We hear you, so we’ve put together a virtual roundtable with Grayscale Investments called "The What, Why (and WTF?) of Crypto Investing" to discuss everything you need to know. [Sign up]( for the event—moderated by our own Kinsey Grant—right [here](.* Summer lovin’ this fruit-infused flavor. [Hint]( gives you all the benefits of drinking water, but with delicious fruit flavor and no sugar or sweeteners. Get 36 bottles for $36 on your first order—[that’s $1 a bottle and free shipping](.* 25 movie recs: Parasite’s Oscar win cemented South Korea’s place in global cinema, but the country has produced plenty of other masterpieces. Grab a bowl of ram-don and binge the [25 best South Korean films]( of the 21st century. Follow Friday: This week, we're giving a celeb shot to Emerging Tech Brew writer Ryan Duffy. Check out his newsletter’s [Twitter]( and [Instagram]( first, and then... - On Twitter: Follow [@Techmeme](, which curates tech news, and [@internetofs**t](, which curates when tech breaks. Also follow [@Formats4memes](, a newly incubated Brew Twitter account. - On Insta: Daily Sci-Fi Art posts [wallpaper-worthy]( graphics of futuristic cityscapes and space shots. Also, I recently created an [Insta account]( for my drone. Check out the photos and follow its misadventures until I inevitably crash it. - On TikTok: Error 404 suggestion not found. *This is sponsored advertising content FRIDAY PUZZLE When you solve this puzzle, you'll know it's time to enjoy the weekend: How many times a day do the minute and hour hands of a clock overlap? SHARE THE BREW When you share the Brew, you earn rewards. From Brew swag like t-shirts and coffee mugs to exclusive content, we've got something for everyone in our premier rewards program. [Click here to get free swag.]( Hit the button below to start sharing the Brew. [Click to Share]( Or copy & paste your referral link to others: [morningbrew.com/daily/r/?kid=4904f90a]( FRIDAY PUZZLE ANSWER They overlap 22 times a day. Here's a [more detailed]( explanation.             Written by [Neal Freyman](, [Alex Hickey](, and [Eliza Carter]( Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up [here](. 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