What a Quicken Loans IPO would mean for fintech...
June 15, 2020 [Read in Browser](
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Good morning. Letâs start keeping track of ânews that wouldnât have been news in 2019.â Hereâs our first entry: This weekend, New Zealand hosted a rugby match with nearly 20,000 people.Â
- Honorable mention: France will let people sit inside its bars and restaurants starting today.
MARKETS YTD PERFORMANCE
NASDAQ
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S&P
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DJIA
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- 10.28%
GOLD
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+ 14.30%
10-YR
0.704%
- 121.60 bps
OIL
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*As of market close
- Nation: Atlantaâs police chief [resigned]( after an officer fatally shot a Black man, Rayshard Brooks, outside a Wendyâs location Friday night. Following the incident, one police officer was fired and another was placed on administrative duty. Protests eruptedâthe Wendy's was set on fireâand the cityâs mayor said she didn't believe the use of deadly force was justified.
- Economy: Systemic racism and high unemployment among minority communities hurt economic growth in the U.S., Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan [told CBS]( yesterday. âAnd so I think weâre right to focus on this and bore in on this,â he said of the Fedâs role in focusing on inequality.
ECONOMY
[The Fight Over $600/Week](
[stimulus]
Giphy
Right now, Americans without a job receive an extra $600/week in unemployment benefits from the federal governmentâone of the hallmarks of the $2.2 trillion economic relief package Congress passed in March.
But if White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow has his way, those will [stop flowing](. The reason?Â
- Kudlow said yesterday the extra $600 creates a disincentive for Americans to get a job. âI mean, we're paying people not to work. It's better than their salaries would get," he told CNNâs Jake Tapper.
- âThe jobs are coming back and we donât want to interfere with that process.â
By âjobs are coming back,â Kudlow was referring to the [surprising data]( for May that showed the economy added 2.5 million jobs and the unemployment rate dipped.Â
The debate over relief funds is heating up
Many Democrats [want to keep]( the extra $600/week rolling past the July 31 expiration date, arguing itâs necessary to support the 21 million Americans who are still without a job. They say itâs not a matter of people not wanting to return to work...itâs that their jobs have completely disappeared.Â
Republicans are more likely to favor programs that try to directly nudge people to get back into the workforce. Senator Rob Portman, for example, floated a âback-to-workâ bonus, an idea Kudlow endorsed yesterday.Â
Big picture
Kudlow predicts a [V-shaped economic recovery]( from the coronavirus (a quick, dramatic fall followed by quick, dramatic rise), but other policymakers are painting a different story. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated last week the economy is in a hole itâll take years to dig out of.Â
One factor that could slow down any rebound is the reason weâre in this hole to begin withâthe coronavirus itself. States including Arizona, California, Florida, and North Carolina all reported record numbers of new cases in the last three days, [per Reuters](, even as New York claimed it âtamed the beast.â
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FINANCE
[One of Detroitâs Finest Could Go Public](
[Dan Gilbert and Warren Buffett]
Jason Miller/Getty Images
Quicken Loans has confidentially filed for an IPO, per [multiple reports](, and is aiming to trade publicly as soon as next month.
What Quicken Loans is: the largest mortgage lender in the U.S. It funded $146 billion in mortgages in 2019, and it could be valued at tens of billions on the public marketâmaking it potentially the biggest IPO this year. Â
And how is business? Really good, all things considered. Despite the coronavirus-induced recession, mortgage rates dipped to a record average low of 2.97% last week. And with rates that low, homeowners have been stampeding to refinance.Â
- In April, Quicken Loans CEO Jay Farner told CNBC that March was the âbiggest closing month in our companyâs history.âÂ
And you canât write a story about Quicken Loans without mentioning Dan Gilbert, the companyâs billionaire founder and owner. Gilbert, who is also the majority owner and chairman of the Cleveland Cavaliers, had a stroke in May 2019âbut heâs [rehabbing](.Â
Bottom line:Â A public Quicken could set the tone for valuations for fintech disruptors, including the stock trading app Robinhood and the British banking app Revolut, Julian Hebron [writes]( in HousingWire.Â
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TOURISM
[Europe's Big Test](
[Socially distanced art museum]
Xinhua/ via Getty Images
Today and tomorrow, many major European countries will [open their borders]( to other EU countries and wait, patiently, for any sign of travelers.Â
While France, Germany, and others are lifting restrictions on EU travelers, tourists from Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and the U.S. willâfor nowâonly be able to tap into the romance of Europe through repeated viewings of The Italian Job.Â
- Thatâs a problem for European countries, which count on tourists from China, the U.S., and Russia for a big chunk of spending.Â
Big picture: European officials must balance public health considerations with kickstarting the continentâs vital tourism economy. France is the worldâs [top tourist destination](, and the industry accounts for more than 12% of Spainâs GDP and employment.Â
Bottom line: Like in the U.S., many tourism leaders expect European vacations to be more local this summer...and the next summer, and the next summer. The president of Italyâs association of travel and tourism [told the FT]( she doesnât expect the country to reach 2019âs international tourist levels until 2023.
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CULTURE
[NBA Players Question Restart](
Smart take from [the WSJ](: If youâre looking for a collision point among all the issues the U.S. is facing right nowâthe coronavirus health emergency, an economic recession, and a sweeping movement demanding racial justiceâthe NBA might be your best bet.
The league plans to restart the season in late July at the Disney campus in Orlando, where 22 teams would enter a quarantined âbubbleâ before resuming play. This weekend, however, several playersâled by Brooklyn Nets guard Kyrie Irvingâexpressed concerns that playing basketball would distract from the more important Black Lives Matter agenda.Â
- As one âwidely respected NBA playerâ [told ESPN](, âOnce we start playing basketball again, the news will turn from systemic racism to who did what in the game last night.âÂ
- Houston Rockets guard Austin Rivers [countered]( on Instagram that resuming play could allow players to collect salaries and financially power the BLM movement.
The $$$ on the line: NBA players would stand to lose $1.2 billion in salary this season, ESPN writesâand theyâre already losing about $300 million.
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MEDIA
["Say Their Names"](#)
[New Yorker cover]
New Yorker
This week's New Yorker cover by [Kadir Nelson](.
CALENDAR
[The Week Ahead](
It's the last *official* week of spring. Â
Monday: Start thinking more seriously about Father's Day gifts
Tuesday: Retail sales; Jerome Powell Senate testimony; Oracle earnings
Wednesday: Housing starts; Jerome Powell House testimony; new Fortnite season; Premier League resumes
Thursday: Jobless claims; Kroger earningsÂ
Friday: Juneteenth
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WHAT ELSE IS BREWING
- [MTA](: The number of subway riders in NYC increased 19% during the first week of a phased reopening plan.
- [Beijing]( reinstituted lockdown measures after discovering dozens of new COVID-19 cases linked to a major food market.
- [Sushant Singh Rajput](, a 34-year-old Bollywood star, was found dead at his home in Mumbai.Â
- [Warner Bros.]( pushed back the release of Christopher Nolanâs Tenet and Wonder Woman 1984.
- [Fox News]( removed a digitally altered photo claiming to depict protests in Seattle.
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CROSSWORD
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Written by [Neal Freyman](
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