Thoughts on the economy, commercial RE, and financial markets...

My thoughts on the economy, commercial real-estate, and financial markets… With the CPI numbers coming out hotter than anticipated today, the markets reacted by selling off, sending a clear signal that inflation is not going away anytime soon.  Inflation isn’t a ghost from the recent past… It’s become sticky and may be here awhile.  And is also echoing the challenging inflationary waves of the 1970s. With the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFB) ending March 11th 2024, we’re likely going to see more bank failures. One NY bank is already signaling that they have $200M in unrealized losses on their books from commercial real-estate loans. The commercial real-estate market is in trouble, and this shoe has yet to drop. Just like in China, where their commercial RE market is collapsing and they’re already money printing to save their economy.. It’s only a matter of time before we see that here in the U.S. To make matters worse, it’s the smaller regional banks which often finance larger commercial real-estate deals. If these fall, there’s less liquidity to prop up the already troubled commercial real-estate market. So who will come to the rescue? We already have other banks flagging that they’re on the verge of failing. Janet Yellen not renewing their funding, is like calling their bluff. So we may get a decent size bank failure on day one after the BTFP ends! If the 'giants' are still naked (big unrealized losses from 'underwater' treasury portfolios, the ones that have been used as collateral for the 'temp' bailout lending program)... The buck will stop with the Fed, and whether there is a decision to 'backstop' a new run on the banks… Or let it happen, and only bail out the 'special' banks (the naked 'giants') as Fed chief Yellen was suggesting last spring… To prevent further contagion and systemic risk to the system. It’s a house of cards, ready to fall. Last year, UBS was forced to bail out Credit Suisse via a forced merger.  Now there are rumors that if UBS fails, it would have 'major consequences' to the Swiss economy. And who knows what other dominos will fall after that. Similarly, the larger regional banks that decide to bail out the ones that were failing outright, will also now be under stress… and if the 'temp' program is not renewed, could end up facing insolvency and flight of any liquid customer deposits. The Fed also has to payout FDIC. If they let FDIC fail, it would drive the economy into the stone age and the poor would literally eat the rich. I actually see the Fed taking their sweet time on addressing these new bank failures, first seeing how many will fail and how much pain the economy can take… Before realizing they’ve broken the economy (again) and lowering interest rates. Then the money printer goes ‘brrr’ once again, just like we’re seeing in China. Plus - we’re in an election year, and the current ‘regime’ will make darn sure the economy is looking stronger, and ensuring they stay in power. That’s the usual scenario. And it’s actually good news for investors. Especially risk-on investors, because the QE money printing, and lowering interest rates signals it’s time to get back into tech stocks, as well as Bitcoin and crypto. This is key. To see a study on the other 9 factors... (Each like smoldering camp-fires that could ignite this blaze like a good old-fashioned California forest fire) then have a look at this video I just recorded: [ Interesting times... Brett Fogle Moonstream Crypto P. S. If you like the video please Like and Subscribe to our new Moonstream YouTube channel for more videos like this and other helpful content. Thank you! Moonstream Crypto 4828 MacArthur Blvd NW Washington, DC, 20007 [Manage your subscription](