Here’s a Pre-Thursday Bet Against the Tech Market’s "Butterbean"

All eyes on the big Apple... [Real Testimonials from Real Traders]( Business owners, teachers, police officers, farmers - we’ve got messages from everyday Americans trading Kenny Glick’s Private Bull Market, and they’re telling us about rare, moonshot gains ranging from 300% to 1,073% in a day. [See their stories here.](   Here’s a Pre-Thursday Bet Against the Tech Market’s "Butterbean" By Matthew Carr, Editor, Tactical Trend Investor Hey Reader, “You’re mad!” I thought. In 2006, close friends of mine started plowing all their money into a single stock. One name dominated their 401(k)s, IRAs, and traditional brokerage accounts… Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL). It was reckless to me (and still is) to go “all-in” on a lone company. At the time, Apple’s big moneymaker was the iPod. But they were Steve Jobs believers. They had faith that the “smartphone” he had been developing since 2004 would be revolutionary. Oh boy, was it! Since the iPhone’s debut on June 29, 2007, shares of Apple have skyrocketed 4,471%! That means every $5,000 invested turned into $228,607! This is why the correct long-term holds are potentially more life-changing than day trading. Sixteen years later the iPod is gone. An extinct dinosaur from a simpler time. And the iPhone upended the smartphone market, propelling Apple to a $2.68 trillion market cap. The company is now an integral cog in the global economy. That means, whether you’re a fanboy or not, you must pay attention to its financial health. Lucky for you, tomorrow we’ll get our first peek at how the company’s second quarter went. Only, while I hate to be a bearer of bad news… historically speaking, investors will likely be disappointed.   [Rumors of a $50 Billion Oil Deal…]( just triggered a massive acquisition race in the Permian basin… with 400 tiny companies in the region and $7.2 TRILLION gallons of gas, this will easily be the biggest and fastest land race in American History. Anyone who knows the acquisition targets is about to experience a massive payday… Join Garrett {NAME} for the full briefing, including targets, dates, and deal sizes. [LEARN MORE HERE.](   Heaviest of the Heavyweights At 378 lbs., Eric Esch, better known as “Butterbean,” was the heaviest of heavyweights. He tipped the scales at 120 lbs. heavier than George Forman. Well, similarly, Apple is the heaviest heavyweight in the market. It’s the largest company in the world by market cap. And for good reason… I can’t walk five feet around my home without bumping into an Apple device. And I’m not alone. But Apple’s mass weighs heavily on the major indexes. It takes up 7.24% of the S&P 500, ranking as the index’s largest component. It’s the second largest component of the Nasdaq 100, clocking in at 12.64% of the index’s weight. And on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Apple accounts for 3.28%, making it the 13th largest component. A serious challenger to this heavyweight title is Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) – which is my No. 1 stock to watch. Regardless, the iPhone maker is one of those companies that gives the whole market the sniffles when it catches a cold. Keep this in mind for Friday, the day after Apple’s earnings release. Wall Street's expectations are sizable in their own right. For the second quarter, Apple is expected to report $92.94 billion in revenue with earnings per share (EPS) of $1.45. There's a whisper number for EPS of $1.47, so traders are already expecting a beat. In fact, 60.7% of investors are expecting Apple to top the consensus. Short interest in the tech giant has fallen 5.6% since its first-quarter earnings report on February 2. But that’s no real surprise as equities rallied in March and April. And at the moment, options traders are currently pricing in a 4.3% move from Apple on earnings. On the surface, all seems positive. But I’m going to douse any expectations you might have with some icy cold water… 75% Chance of a Drop? Here’s the thing… Over the past several weeks, I’ve been sharing my pioneering VertEA strategy. If you’ve been [following along]( you know it’s incredibly accurate. It correctly forecast earnings moves for Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX), Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Meta Platforms (Nasdaq: META), and Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN). When I look at Apple through this lens… Unfortunately, what my peepers spy isn’t good… Over the last 12 second-quarter earnings reports, Apple shares have fallen seven times… Now, that’s not the worst trend you could see. But over the last eight second-quarter releases, shares have dropped six times. That means 75% of the moves have been lower on this report. And that's bad. Of course, as I always remind investors, these moves are tethered to fundamentals. For instance, Apple reported first-quarter revenue of $117.2 billion. But expectations for the second quarter are $92.94 billion. That’s quite a bit lower. But it’s the same pattern in quarterly revenue we see every year. (The iPhone maker’s best quarter is its first, which includes the holiday shopping season.) Typically, investors don’t often celebrate such a step down in sales to the second quarter. And I doubt this time will be any different. So, here are the key takeaways… First, VertEA shows us that the probability of Apple moving higher on earnings is low… particularly over the last 8 years. But on the bright side, I’d only consider two of the moves noteworthy declines – 2016 and 2022. The rest are modest. Second, if Apple does beat expectations tomorrow, the reaction is energized. Of the five rallies on second-quarter earnings, only one was less than 4.4%. And here’s an interesting tidbit… The Invesco QQQ ETF (Nasdaq: QQQ) – the proxy for the Nasdaq 100 – has ended 7 of Apple’s last 8 second-quarter earnings releases down. And the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) has ended five of the last six lower. That’s noteworthy as the only year the two ETFs gained was in 2021, when Apple shares dipped 0.07%. Apple is a fantastic long-term hold. As I said earlier, I know several people who funded their retirements with it. But this week, Apple shares are likely to stumble, taking the broader indexes with them. If you want to play this call before tomorrow, you can buy some short-term puts. But keep in mind, the moves lower haven’t been extreme, so don’t get too far out of the money. Plus, the action will be butting heads against nonfarm payrolls Remember, a dip isn’t the beginning of the end for the bull, merely a rut in the road. Your tactical trends hunter, Matthew P.S. I’m busy fine-tuning a new service for you that will bring the power of my VertEA analysis and other tactical trend research to bear on your investing. With it, you will see and use the unrecognized trends all around us to improve your overall investment returns and experience. Once ready, this service will be free to any Passport Fellowship members. Luckily, our head of customer relations – Gabriel Oropollo – has dropped the price of membership to a record low. [You’ll find all the details]( – the fellowship brings you into quite a prestigious circle of investment and trading strategists… and like-minded investors – [plus the deeply discounted price here.](   [The Most Reliable Market Move I’ve Ever Seen]( For this trade to work, only one market move needs to happen. 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