Are we IN the stock market crash?

this Killer New Strategy, the Best Trading Tactic Ever?]( Chris Johnson’s brand-new strategy pinpoints the spark that a has preceded historic and life changing gains as high as….500% in 17 trading days on CS… 554% in 13 trading days on MLCO... even 700% gains in 15 trading days on AEHR. [Bull market. Bear market it doesn’t matter.]( Where money is moving now   Is the fear caused by recent bank crashes abating or accelerating? Were the sudden collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse a signal of greater volatility to come for the market, or the capitulative moment signaling the market has found a new bottom and is ready to move higher? The real answer - the one that mainstream media seems loath to tell you - is nobody knows. First let’s set the scene. The market entered 2022 with major U.S. indexes having posted their worst year since 2008.     Inflation had gotten out of hand, causing the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates seven times and begin what’s called “quantitative tightening” - or a reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet. This is accomplished by the Fed ceasing to buy maturing Treasury bonds and mortgage backed securities every month, passively shrinking its assets as those securities “roll off” without being replaced. Interest rates have continued to rise in 2023 - with the Federal Open Market Committee raising rates 25 basis points last week. Meanwhile, 2023 has been a tumultuous year for stocks so far. The market opened higher to begin the year, before beginning a downward trend in February. Then, at the beginning of March, it seemed like a bomb went off - starting with the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, and quickly becoming a [contagion that spread to Europe](. Money Morning LIVE Chief Economist continues to cover this developing story - and how to trade it - in his [free report “What to Buy and Sell to Profit in This Banking Meltdown” right here.]( [Sign up for Garrett {NAME}’s FREE Midday Momentum eletter right here]( The Federal Reserve stepped in, “backstopping” - totally not bailing out *insert eyeroll emoji* - the banking system. The market in general has tiptoed higher, with the exception of tech stocks, as the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) and, surprisingly, Bitcoin (BTC) have outperformed as investors seek safe havens for their money. Money Morning LIVE Chief Quantitative Analyst Chris Johnson recently broke down why Bitcoin could be viewed as the new safety trade - [check that segment out right here.]( With the Fed “backstopping banks” - injecting liquidity into the banking system via discount window borrowing and the new Bank Term Funding Program - suddenly there are billions of bank dollars looking for a new home. Discount window borrowing is an emergency facility available with high collateral, in this case treasury bonds. Banks can borrow against these bonds’ original value, allowing them to borrow against the very instruments which have caused this economic contagion in the first place. The Fed doled out over $152 billion in this kind of borrowing last week.     The last time discount window borrowing spiked - in 2008 and 2020 - we’ve seen a recession. Let’s briefly recap. 2022 stunk for stocks. 2023 started okay, banks started collapsing, now it’s a crapshoot. Where is most of this money going? Money market funds.     Money market funds are a kind of mutual fund that invests in highly liquid, near-term instruments. While not as “safe” as cash, money market funds are considered extremely low-risk. But then again, so were Treasury Bonds. Analysts from Bank of America noted that this kind of activity - a surge in Fed discount window borrowing and money market fund assets - has historically occurred around a big stock-market low. “Credit and stock markets are too greedy for rate cuts, not fearful enough of recession,” BofA analysts said. They added that history says to sell the last interest rate hike, because when banks borrow from the Fed in an emergency, lending standards tighten, which begets less lending, which begets less spending on small-businesses, which eventually cracks the labor market. But is the market greedy for rate cuts? The CME Fedwatch tool, which calculates the likelihood the Fed will change interest rates at upcoming FOMC meetings according to interest rate traders, is currently leaning toward an 18% chance of a rate cut.     The market is pricing in a greater than 90% chance that the Fed pauses rate hikes or slashes rates by June. That chance jumps to 100% chance for the July FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, Volatility Expert Mark Sebastian and his option bro Andrew Giovinazzi [saw something in the VIX Futures Curve that suggests the downward trend in the market is no longer an isolated move]( could last quite a while longer. If that happens, there could be further flow into the new “safe havens”...and some of the old reliable ones. In case you missed it, I discussed this very situation with Brien Lundin, editor of the Gold Newsletter. [You can watch that interview right here]( - and Brien and I will be continuing our discussion this upcoming Wednesday on Trading Today LIVE - be sure to tune in. Safe havens aren’t the only way to find opportunity in this market. Garrett {NAME} recently looked into an escalating commercial real estate situation…and [how one man’s panic is another man’s opportunity.]( If the market moves to the downside,[Kenny Glick thinks the taboo against stock shorting needs to go]( - and wants you to know how to profit on the downside. There’s a ton going on in this market. Tons of opportunity and tons of risk. You need to stay informed. And the best way to do so is with Money Morning LIVE. Never miss another live trading session. [Sign up for free text alerts.]( And of course, tune into Money Morning LIVE - [bookmark this page so you never miss an episode!]( - Rob Booker   Reuters: “Microsoft-backed OpenAI starts release of powerful AI known as GPT-4” [INDUSTRY INSIDER UNVEILS HIS #1 AI PICK IN PRIVATE INTERVIEW]( (And it’s not OpenAI) You are receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}, as part of your subscription to Trading Today. To remove your email from this list: [unsubscribe here](. 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