Postcards From The Florida Republic

From the Desk of Garrett {NAME} - January 22, 2023 [Image](   [ARCHIVES]( LIVE]( [Twitter]( [Youtube]( [Instagram]( [Tiktok]( [Discord]( [LinkedIn]( [The Secret Behind “Hyper Turns”]( Over the past year, the market has been a disaster. But a small group of trades saw gains of 442% in two days… 500% in five days… even up to 1,060% in a little more than a week. They’re called “Hyper Turns.” On January 24 at 2 p.m. (ET), Garrett {NAME} reveals the truth behind them –[click here to reserve your seat now](.   January 22, 2023, Weekly Recap: Market momentum absolutely topped out on Wednesday at 10:30 am in one of the more interesting reversals that we’ve seen since August 15. But – of course – we pushed into short-term, oversold territory, which gave us our third straight Friday of short squeezes and big reversion moves from the morning selloff. The technicals aren’t lying. We had a nice 70%-win shorting Plug Power (PLUG), and smaller gains after I stopped out shorting Lucid Group (LCID) and Charge Point (CHPT). Also, Pfizer (PFE) is oversold. Current Outlook: We just pushed against the 200-day moving average, and we’re finally seeing some sanity around the economic numbers trickling in. We’ve shifted from a “Peak Inflation” conversation to a recession conversation, all while the Fed continues to drain the market of liquidity from its balance sheet. I expect this market to start rolling over this week – as we barrel toward another (fully priced in) rate hike of 25 basis points. This jobs report on February 3 should shatter this rally, as wage growth will likely be positive. As I’ve noted, the Fed won’t consider a pivot until real wages turn positive. That’s months away. Current Mood: Very angry at myself for not buying Ally Financial (ALLY) on January 1, as it was No. 3 on my list of balance sheet stocks with low Price-to-Graham valuations. I simply didn’t believe in a business around auto loans. It’s up 28% YTD. Meanwhile, SKYW, which was No. 1 on the list and an active “Buy and Hold,” is up 19.2% in the same period. Honest Question: Did someone argue that the Cape Ratio falling to 27.5 is a justification for the Fed to now pivot and that the bottom is in? What are you thinking? It may go to 20.   Dear Future Florida Republic Residents, The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up about 4% to start the year. But this week, we again bounced directly off the 200-day moving average as markets react to the latest round of economic data. In December - the month that retail sales should shine - we saw a 1.1% drop month-over month. This figure was the largest drop since July 2021 and the second month in a row for declines. And it wasn’t a one-off category drop. Ten of the 13 retail categories slumped - even sales at gasoline stations. As I’ve noted, negative real interest rates have pushed consumers to buy, buy, buy over 2022. But it’s clear that “real” spending had fallen sharply in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, industrial production in the United States is cratering. For December, month over-month production dropped by 0.7%. That was the third-straight month of declines (and November’s figures were revised down sharply). The only category that saw an uptick in industrial production was - utilities. And you just need to know that cold temperatures field a big jump in heating demand for December. Finally - look at this. [Click here to begin receiving - POSTCARDS FROM THE FLORIDA REPUBLIC]( Cheers, [Garrett {NAME}]( Did you miss the show? No worries, we’ve got you covered.   REPORTS   [Welcome to Momentum]( [Trading Momentum]( [Trading Fundamentals]( [Trading the Fed]( [Trading Insiders]( WATCH REPLAYS   [Stop Trading Earnings NOW]( 99% of people trade earnings the wrong way. Don’t be one of them. [This is the only reliable way to trade an earnings report]( – and you need to start ASAP. 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