Signs of Market Change

[Power Profit Trades] Thursday, September 01, 2022 [Watch Me LIVE]( Investing $100k in Crypto on September 12 Signs of Market Change By Tom Gentile Daily Watchlist Today's Schedule 8:30 a.m. ET - Catch the [Money Morning LIVE show]( before the bell 1 p.m. ET - Premium subscribers only (private room) Don't miss any Tom Gentile cameos! [Follow the Money Morning LIVE streaming schedule here.]( Hello, Power Profit Traders! The stock market will generally ebb and flow even when it's generally trending bullish or bearish. Now sentiment has changed - again! I mentioned in my [Money Morning Live]( sessions last June that bearish sentiment was changing. As the market did an about face, my proprietary software found bullish trading opportunities. Well, there are currently a lot of pressures impacting the market - which in turn can impact your investments. As the market does another about face the natural reaction is to run and hide. Let's not do that. Instead, let's observe what's happening to sentiment and then find appropriate trading opportunities for the times. My software, which has built in [Artificial Intelligence]( is constantly at work for me, looking for trading opportunities. After all, we can't control market mood swings, but we can exploit them. Signs of Change Without going into the details of global worries, I'm seeing signs of change through charting analysis and economic fundamentals. From a technical analysis perspective change is happening. The first two lines of code in my proprietary software include the 10/30 moving average crossovers. Although this isn't the only thing that helps me find opportunities, it lends a hand to identifying shifting sentiment. In yesterday's market, the 10-day moving average fell below the 30-day moving average, implying bearish potential in the stock market. Technical charts are not the only thing implying change. Fundamentally, there are other indications that can validate changing sentiment as well - namely Fed policy and interest rates. You know the reasons for the Fed rate hikes this year, but there is real concern about the economy falling into a fairly rough recession. During her appearance on CNN's "State of the Union," Elizabeth Warren said she's concerned that as the Fed continues to raise rates it could "tip" the country into a recession. Unfortunately, political pressure can cause the Fed to put the brakes on rate hikes. So, there's a good chance September will be the last hike this year. The Fed never wants to be on the receiving end of accusations of influencing elections or pandering to politicians. According to the CME Group, there is over 75% probability the Fed will raise rates by 75 bps on September 21. Then, arguably, to stay out of the political spot light, they'll pause on rate hikes for the rest of this mid-term election year. (Fed Funds Probability of .75 basis points rate hike = 76.5% as of August 30) Along with interest rate hikes, the Fed is reducing its balance sheet this year - creating fear that treasury yields will naturally rise with the reduction. In June, the Fed began shrinking its balance sheet at a pace of $47.5 billion per month, and that number is expected to double to $95 billion this month! [Animated GIF]( The dollar is also strong. This is something that is causing foreign capital to flow into the United States, putting pressure on bonds and their yields, and there are ripple effects due to this. In the end, a tug of war is beginning to happen between bond yields and the stock market. If we see a large move in the 10-year treasury yield, pressure can settle in on the stock market. Again, sentiment is changing, and it can easily impact investing accounts. The changes are illustrated in the technical charts as well as the fundamentals of our economy. It's not a time to run and hide, but rather to recognize economic and technical shifts, then exploiting opportunities - thus, helping your portfolios to combat the real potential of further market decline. Until next time, Tom Gentile America's #1 Pattern Trader Learn About Trading with the Money Morning Live Professionals! You can watch Tom Live Monday through Wednesday, but if you miss him, you won't miss a beat. Just click below and watch his replays! [Tom's Toolbox]( Today's Watchlist is based on the Morning Report's Expensive IV tool. This data is updated after the closing bell each session, and compares current implied volatility (IV) against a set of near-the-money options over the last year. Expensive IV means the current IV is at the high end of this 52-week range, meaning option premiums are running hotter than normal - a ripe atmosphere for selling to open options. The Morning Report tools from the Tom Gentile Suite app are free to Power Profit Traders - [click here for instructions on how to use and download](. [Download the APP]( [Subscribe to Tom's YouTube]( [Follow Tom on Spotify]( [Do You Have a Supercomputer?]( the last 11 years, there has been an over 30X increase in the amount of data flowing in and out of the market daily. If you don't have a supercomputer, there's literally no human way for you to track, analyze, and act on this data... so Tom Gentile built a system to do just that. It runs 24 hours to analyze billions of data points and essentially automates profits... and he's giving you access to its output. The most recent output was a trade that closed for a partial gain of 100% in 24 hours. The rest of that position is sitting around 180%. [Go here to see how you can get on the list for his next Mega Trade](. 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