[Midday Momentum]
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[What the Dot-Com Bubble Tells Us About THIS Bear Market](
By Garrett {NAME} Improving Sectors:
Consumer Cyclical, Communication, Materials, Real Estate
Weakening Sectors:
Technology
Watchlist:
TRU, AAT, SPY, XLU Dear Reader, The markets continued the bear rally dating back to June 17, when the S&P 500 sat near oversold territory. June's options expiration week coincided with the largest amount of hedge fund selling in 15 years. It was "Peak Fear" and showed that even fund managers with decades of experience could trap themselves by overly shorting the market. As a result, a squeeze remains in place, evident by the massive move on the SPY last Wednesday. We noted that the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) hit 31.5 on the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on June 17. Today, it's almost 66.5, and the S&P 500 Volatility Index is approaching 20. It's time to be contrarian... right? Many people think that the worst is over - even though the 35-day rally came in a very low-volume environment. I've discussed that very few negative catalysts exist for the market in August. The Fed won't hold another rate hike meeting until September (although the central bankers will meet in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, this month). No "emergency rate hike" is likely coming. The July employment report was substantial - on the surface. We've recovered all job losses since February 2020. Wages are surging, and many job openings remain for anyone looking. So the White House took a victory lap. Under the hood, I have issues with the U-6 rate, the number of part-time jobs shifted from full-time work, and the wage-inflation spread... but a good report still. The only possible surprise would be this week's CPI figure, which I'll discuss in greater detail soon. But I want to take a step back and show a chart. It will change the way you think about the 2022 market. [Click here to continue reading the Midday Momentum letter.]( Sincerely, Garrett {NAME} you miss the show? No worries, we've got you covered. You are receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}, as part of your subscription to Midday Momentum. To remove your email from this list: [unsubscribe here](. To cancel, or for any other questions or requests, please contact our Customer Service team:
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