Post-Pandemic Recovery BOMBS!

In light of rising energy costs and a very real threat of catastrophic escalation, it’s not unreasonable to be worried…so why are experts advising us to keep on investing as usual? March 08, 2022 [Turn on your images.]( Post-Pandemic Recovery BOMBS! Just when it seemed like we were getting back to normal, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has given the world a whole new set of problems to solve. In light of rising energy costs and a very real threat of a catastrophic escalation, it’s not unreasonable to be worried…so why are experts advising us to keep on investing as usual? Is there a way to build a bomb-proof portfolio that can survive this global crisis? Is it time to turn America’s energy tap back on to offset the damages of inflation and fuel costs? And even when it’s safe to travel internationally again, will those same costs make that all but impossible? --------------------------------------------------------------- [Turn Your Images On] [A Nuclear War Is No Reason To Dump Stocks! How I Learned To Stop Worrying And LOVE The Bomb]( Shawn Ambrosino Raise your hand if you remember doing nuclear bomb drills in school. I do… It didn’t last long, though. by the time I was in mid-elementary school, we had stopped doing it once the “Russian Threat” had passed–but for two years, when the alarm sounded, our teachers led us into the halls where there were no windows and we had to sit quietly with our eyes closed. The thing is, I’m not even a Baby Boomer; I’m a Gen-Xer, and I still had to deal with the specter of nuclear war hanging over our heads. I can remember when Russia (the Soviet Union at the time) was the biggest threat to the American way of life. The Cold War was a very REAL thing, and every time things started getting a little tense, the nightly news would bring up the infamous “nuclear option.” However, since the fall of the Berlin Wall, we really haven’t heard too much about nuclear war–other than the little psychopath in North Korea who keeps forgetting he’s NOT a major threat, of course (remember when that false nuclear alarm in Hawaii went out a few years ago? That was terrible). Of course, the fear of nuclear war has ALWAYS lingered, but I think I’m just at that age where I’ve seen too many false alarms to be worried this time around. So, despite the fact that there are literally people calling for a ground war with Russia right now, it’s business as usual as far as I’m concerned. And what’s funny is that I’m obviously not the only one who feels this way. While conducting my business-as-usual routine, I came across some information that made me stop and wonder how many other people don’t fear the bomb anymore. Forge Ahead Through Fear and Worry You can imagine my surprise when I read that BCA Research, a financial research company out of Canada, issued a report saying that there’s now a 10% chance of a nuclear holocaust! This is the kind of thing that requires further investigating. For future reference, if you want to catch my attention, say that there’s a 1-in-10 chance that we're going to have nuclear destruction on a global scale… But if you want to KEEP my attention, explain why even under the fears of a nuclear war, investors should stay bullish on stocks and keep buying them up. Ummmmm… what? Look, I get it. A 10% chance of nuclear rain doesn’t exactly mean people should be panicking. I just found the juxtaposition of the two in correlation was a bit…odd. Yet, here we are, and BCA Research is telling clients to “stay bullish” on stocks and “largely ignore existential risk” of civilization-destroying nuclear Armageddon. Investments will become “irrelevant” if the Ukraine war leads to full-on nuclear bombardment, so why worry about it in the meantime. The company’s chief global strategist, Peter Berezin, wrote, “Despite the risk of nuclear war, it makes sense to stay constructive on stocks over the next 12 months. If an ICBM [intercontinental ballistic missile] is heading your way, the size and composition of your portfolio becomes irrelevant. Thus, from a purely financial perspective, you should largely ignore existential risk.” Here’s the thing…I can’t ignore or argue against the logic. Keep Trading: You Can’t Change The Future If you were to stop trading now based on fears of a nuclear launch, what good would it do? If there is a nuclear war, it won’t matter how much money you have. Money would be worthless, even to survivors, so pulling back from the market doesn’t really help things if that situation arises. It just makes the intervening time worse for you. However, if nuclear war doesn’t happen (and odds are good that it won’t), you’ll want to be sure your portfolio is intact and healthy, so it makes sense why BCA Research is encouraging investment. Berezin says, “The risk of Armageddon has risen dramatically. Stay bullish on stocks over a 12-month horizon.” That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t keep our eye on Ukraine to watch what Russia does, though. Berezin put into words what a lot of us were thinking when he said, “If Putin concludes that he has no future, the risk is that he will decide that no one else should have a future either.” That’s the $68,000 question… If Putin loses–and a lot of indicators coming out of Ukraine show that the Russians aren’t doing as well they hoped they would–he may just want to wipe the board. The question is: will he? No one can say but the man himself. Regardless, Berezin and BCA Research have the right idea. We can’t control what happens between Russia and the rest of the world; we can only control what WE do, and keeping the status quo is a pretty good idea. In fact, there are a LOT of opportunities presenting themselves right now that could bolster our portfolios. If you’re looking for specific companies, do yourself a favor and consider becoming a member of [Adam O’Dell’s Green Zone Fortunes.]( He’s been on a tear lately - and if you want to get on board with the next round of picks, you might want to consider becoming a subscriber right now. If you’re looking to beat the market like Adam, get on board today. [You’ll be shocked to see just how easy it is to profit like a pro.]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [Turn Your Images On] [“Bring Back Shale!” A Solution To The Energy Crisis?]( by Shawn Ambrosino If somebody would have told you in the 90s that the United States would one day be the world’s top producer of oil…would you have believed them? Because there’s no way I would have. Going off what we knew then, we had oil mainly in the Southwest and the Dakotas, but we didn’t have the supply that was going to threaten Saudi Arabia’s dominance in the industry. Yet, here we are in 2022, and the United States is the world’s TOP producer of oil. It’s weird… You’d have thought that, with all that oil and the money it brings in, we’d be living it up. I mean, we’re producing 20% of the world’s oil! That’s 8% more than what Saudi Arabia produces. In other countries where oil is the main export, even the cops are driving around in Lamborghinis (seriously, cops in Dubai have Lamborghinis). You’d think that the US would be flexing our crude muscle on the world stage. However, for some reason, we aren't. In fact, I’d be willing to bet dollars to donuts that most Americans don’t even realize that their country is the world’s top oil producer. However, with the rate at which gas prices are surging upwards, you can’t blame people for not knowing that. We keep hearing about how the war in Ukraine is going to exacerbate the oil issue even further by disrupting Russia’s oil exports…but nobody is talking about the fact that the US still produces more oil than every other country in the top 10 oil producers. The Battle Cry For A Battered Industry One of the reasons this point isn’t well known is the fact that fracking–the industry that put us ahead of the pack in recent years–has been limited by the Biden administration due to environmental concerns. It’s an understandable stance to take. Have you seen the fracking process to pull oil out of shale? Even at its cleanest, there’s sure to be SOME kind of environmental impact. We’re literally ripping apart rock to allow oil and natural gas to escape. There’s bound to be some sort of effect on the earth, so those concerns are understandable. In times of peace, we should be doing all we can to protect our environment until renewable energy tech becomes fully viable. That being said…we’re not in a time of peace. There is a growing chorus of voices in both the oil industry and the US federal government asking President Biden to put environmental concerns on the back burner for now and start renewing the fracking leases that were banned back in 2021. The problem is that, in the intervening time, we’ve started importing Russian oil ourselves, leaving us between a rock and a hard place. But it’s clear our leaders need to do something to ease public fear and address surging gas prices–and the oil industry seems to think that answer is as simple as turning the fracking industry back on with the push of a button. Dustin Meyer, vice president of the American Petroleum Institute recently said, “This shift away from Russia will not happen overnight, and we need to be clear about that, but for it to happen at all, we need clear and consistent energy policy here in the US.” Well, unfortunately for proponents of this plan, the government’s policy for the past two years has been pretty clear: no fracking. Why Fracking May Be The Answer While technically there are many fracking operations still up and running, there are a lot of dead-end streets in their future. US shale oil’s problems with the current policies are numerous, ranging from pipeline permitting to leasing and communication, not to mention demands from shareholders that are starting to weigh heavy on management. So, they’re asking the current administration for support…but they’re yet to receive a positive response. Point of fact, the Biden administration has frequently pushed back on the industry’s pleas for help, explaining they don’t feel that they’re standing in the way of increased oil and gas production. Officials keep pointing out the fact that companies can take advantage of the thousands of unused drilling permits they already have. White House National Economic Council Deputy Director Bharat Ramamurti told the industry, “If people want to step up to the plate and produce more, they’re free to do so.” But it’s not that easy… Industry executives claim the Biden administration’s anti-fossil fuel agenda gives the industry a bad taste in the mouths of investors and banks alike, both of which are less willing to fund drilling campaigns that can take YEARS to pay out. That’s why fracking is such a hot-button topic. Shale fracking, unlike traditional drilling, can increase production quickly, producing in a matter of months rather than the YEARS it can take for the “old school” way of drilling oil. Industry experts expect Biden to eventually acquiesce to these requests, but not until after the administration has exhausted all other efforts to combat soaring prices. So far, that has consisted of releasing stores from the strategic stockpiles and begging OPEC to increase output. Until that happens, we can expect gas prices to keep moving north. However, don’t believe the hype. America is STILL better off than most countries. And while it would be GREAT to have the Keystone XL Pipeline up and running, it has very LITTLE to do with the prices. We need production, plain and simple. We’ll get there… It just takes time to grease those wheels. [Turn Your Images On]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [Turn Your Images On] [War In Ukraine Delaying Airline Industry Comeback]( by Ryan James Just when the airline industry thought it was on the flight path to full recovery from the pandemic doldrums, war broke out in Ukraine. These poor airlines just can’t catch a break! Air travel was nearing 2019 pre-pandemic levels over the holidays, and things were looking up. And then 2022 hit…and here we go again. Like many sectors of the economy, the airline industry has been rocked by rising fuel prices that have been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. Russia, [as you know by now]( is one of the world’s largest producers of oil and natural gas. And as of this writing, President Biden has announced that the US will ban imports of oil and natural gas from Russia to punish them for their unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. So, now that gas prices continue to soar—and could rise to as high as $170 per barrel according to some experts— the airline industry faces two problems: reduction in consumer demand and rising fuel costs that cut into company margins. These higher fuel costs (jet fuel is trading for around $4.00 on the spot market of this writing) will be passed onto consumers in the form of higher fares. Travelers will have a difficult decision to make this summer: travel by car or plane. Unfortunately for many, the more likely choice is “neither one.” Rising gas prices and food costs will force families to make decisions on what to prioritize in their weekly budget. For many, gas is an essential purchase because they need to fill up their cars to get to work. And obviously, food is an essential. Travel, however, is a luxury, and this spring break and summer travel season likely will see reduced demand thanks to increased costs that hurt family budgets, especially the 64% of those Americans living paycheck-to-paycheck. Already two airlines have made the decision to cut back on flights. According to Bloomberg, “[Alaska Air Group Inc.]( will trim flying by as much as 5% in the first half in response to ‘the sharp rise in fuel costs,’ according to a regulatory filing Tuesday.” And “Allegiant Airlines plans to reduce second-quarter capacity between 5% and 10%,” according to Bloomberg. Whether the big boys—Delta, American, United, and Southwest—follow suit is still to be determined. But considering the market dynamics caused by rising fuel costs, it doesn’t seem far-fetched that the big airlines will follow their smaller rivals and raise prices. The airline industry's comeback is going to be put on hold…for now. --------------------------------------------------------------- For more quality content like this, and to learn more about the Money Moves team and the Green Zone Rating System, [CLICK HERE]( Privacy Policy The Money & Markets, P.O. Box 8378, Delray Beach, FL 33482. To ensure that you receive future issues of Money & Markets, please add info@mb.moneyandmarkets.com to your address book or [whitelist]( within your spam settings. For customer service questions or issues, please contact us for assistance. The mailbox associated with this email address is not monitored, so please do not reply. Your feedback is very important to us so if you would like to contact us with a question or comment, please click here: [( Legal Notice: This work is based on what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors and you should not base investment decisions solely on what you read here. 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