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July 20, 2019
A Meeting with the US Economic Joint Chiefs of Staff
By Tim Melvin
Dear Reader,
I watch the earnings reports from the big banks like a hawk every quarter.
It's not because I'm going to trade them, or own them, or have any intention of owning them anytime soon. I consider the big bank CEOs to be the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US economy.
Every dollar in the marketplace eventually finds its way into their hands.
They know who is borrowing what, who is trading what and who is saving what amount.
They know who is paying their bills and which individuals or companies are struggling.
Big bank earnings tell me a lot about what is going on in the economy and the markets every quarter.
JPM Isn't Worried (and We Shouldn't Be, Either)
In this latest go-round, the view is that the economy is doing well and the only real concerns right now are geopolitical.
Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan said on his call, "Uncertainty is a constant. The one thing in life, as you know, there's going to be uncertainty going forward. And geopolitical tension is kind of a constant. Those things may be a little bit higher now than normal. But I think we see is global growth is north of 3%. You're kind of expecting, I think 2.5% this year. The consumer in the United States is doing fine. Business sentiment is a little bit worse, mostly probably driven by the trade war. And if you travel around the world, you know that Japan is growing and Europe is growing a little bit and Brazil's gone from negative 4% to 0%. "
That is way more optimistic than we are hearing from the politicians and eggheads that set monetary policy in Washington.
All of them have accepted the fact that the Fed will cut rates this year and that's going to compress net interest margins somewhat.
None of them seem to be losing any sleep over it, however. Loan demand is good. They are all buying back enormous amounts of stock, raising dividend payments, and the net interest margins compression is something they feel they can deal with without any real difficulties.
Credit conditions remain outstanding at the larger banks, and I expect that to hold true for regional and community banks when they begin to report earnings over the next few weeks.
Chugging Right Along
This may not be the fastest-growing economy we have ever seen, but it is growing. People are working and paying their bills.
So far, the lessons of the credit crisis are still remembered well by consumers, and they are behaving when it comes to spending and borrowing.
All of the big banks are spending billions of dollars on technology to make their banks more efficient and productive. Consumers want to be able to bank whenever and wherever they want, and the big banks are spending the cash to make that happen.
That can make us money. If we can figure out which technology companies are going to sell software and services to the banks, we can identify companies with huge return potential.
More importantly, smaller banks are going to find it very difficult to keep up with the big banks when it comes to technology. They are going to have to partner up to gain the scale need to spend the necessary cash.
That's going to be fantastic news for [the bank stock investing strategies I've shared]( with you over the past couple of weeks.
Many of the banks in the high dividend strategy and the low price to book strategy are going to get takeover offers at a premium to the current stock price.
The fast-growing banks that I highlighted will be able to make smart acquisitions of banks that just cannot keep up with the need to spend on technology.
That will increase their earnings growth and stock prices at a rapid pace over the next few years.
Looking at what my economic Joint Chiefs of Staff have to say, I conclude that the economy - while not great - is on solid ground and growing here in the US.
We see improvements around the world as well.
More importantly, the need for high technology spending is going to drive M&A activity in the banking sector, and those of us that own regional and community bank stocks are going to make a lot of money because of the surge.
Enjoy your weekend,
Tim Melvin
P.S., At my elite trading service [Heatseekers](, I work tirelessly to find you opportunities that have the best chance to grow your serious money so you can sleep easy, and enjoy your free time. My time-tested and market-proven strategies helped lead me to my undefeated record prior to joining Money Map. [119 trades and closed zero losers](. Our historical data shows that if you'd been along for the ride, you would have seen an average annual return around 20% every year. If you want a shot grow your serious money by 20% or more year after year, [click here and I'll show you how](.
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