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July 08, 2019
Max Monday: This One Change Can Help You Stay Successful
By Tim Melvin
Dear Reader,
Happy Monday!
I hope everyone had a good Fourth of July weekend. It's time once again to share some more things I read this week that I found either educational, instructive, or just plain old entertaining.
Our books this week feature two very different types of adventures, and quick-dives into some of the pitfalls that can trap even the best investors and financial minds out there...
This Week's Books
[Endurance: Shackleton's Incredible Voyage]( - by Alfred Lansing
The adventures of Earnest Shackleton and his crew as they attempted to explore Antarctica back in 1914 is one of the most heroic stories of all time. Their ship became locked in the ice and eventually destroyed by colliding ice flows. After months of camping on ice flows, they then had to use lifeboats to reach Elephant Island some 346 miles away. Shackleton and 5 of his crew then took the largest lifeboat more than 700 miles across the South Atlantic to a Chilean whaling village where he was able to organize a rescue of those stranded on Elephant Island. Ernest Shackleton and his men are the gold standard of courage, and [this is a fantastic tale](.
[Rigged: The True Story of an Ivy League Kid Who Changed the World of Oil, from Wall Street to Dubai]( - by Ben Mezrich
the book uses the pseudonym David Russo it was revealed after the book was published that Rigged is the story of John D'Agostino. Mr. D'Agostino is now a Managing Director at the world's largest fund governance firm, DMS Offshore, and sits of the board of several hedge funds to provide oversight and advice. He started his life in the rough-and-tumble pits of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The book follows his rise in the insane world of oil trading and his adventures helping to open the Dubai Mercantile Exchange. It's [a really good story]( that is really well told.
This Week's Quick-Dive Articles
[Why Things Break: Easy Causes of Business and Investing Failure](
This in-depth look at why success often leads to subsequent failure is incredibly insightful. Often once we obtain a goal, the letdown prevents follow-through and we lose what we worked so hard to gain. Focusing on the system and not the goal allows us to keep the fires burning, so to speak. Goals, once obtained, are in the past, while systems are always on pace so that positive results have better odds of lasting. You can read more about it [here](.
[Value Isn't Dead. It's Misunderstood & Oversimplified](
I get sick of listening to those who scream that value investing is dead. They then use arbitrary cutoff points to define the value universe with no analysis applied whatsoever. They fixate on the absolute level of valuation metrics with no consideration for the credit quality of growth potential. Successful value strategies still work, but they do not scale to institutional size. They never have, except in the very worst of times. Trying to run billions of dollars in a value strategy means changing the definition of what value is for marketing purposes. [Click here]( and take a look for yourself.
[Financial Astrology, From Manure to Markets](
Financial forecasters only exist to make weathermen and astrologers look good. Not too long ago, there was a study looked at 22 large financial institutions and tracked the currency forecasts they made. Every single one of them was consistently wrong. We are constantly bombarded with predictions about what the stock and bond markets are going to do but far more money is lost following these wise men and women that is gained. The real path to success in the securities markets is following the numbers. Learn to ignore what someone thinks the markets will do, and [react to what they actually do](.
[Are there still winners in a maturing real estate cycle?](
It's clear that we are pretty far along in the real estate cycle. Property values, like stocks, have been rising steadily for the past decade. The experienced investors at Oaktree Capital think - as I do - that there are still plenty of opportunities in the US and the only danger at the moment lies in the gateway markets like New York, San Francisco, and Seattle where prices are reaching the lower bands of the ludicrous level. There are also values to be had outside the US as select European and Asian markets are still cheap enough for bargain shopping right now. [Click here]( to read more.
To the Max,
[
Tim Melvin
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[There is no place for fear, panic, or mistakes](
You may only have a few months to prepare. Because a market signal that showed up before the Great Depression... before the dot-com crash... and before the 2008 financial crisis, has just appeared again. Each time this signal appears, investors only have a few short months before chaos strikes. Which means if you want to protect yourself and your family, there is no place for fear, panic, or mistakes. You must act now. [Click here to discover how](.
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