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This Set Up Lit Up My Great Trade Radar

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Wed, May 8, 2024 11:41 AM

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Looking back at the last week, the market has done some big work to help keep the bulls in control.?

Looking back at the last week, the market has done some big work to help keep the bulls in control. As long as th Looking back at the last week, the market has done some big work to help keep the bulls in control. As long as the bulls maintain this control, it is very difficult to bet on and hold on to bearish positions. Given this, what’s the next play in this market? As I reflect back on the past few weeks and recent bullish price action, I first want to see how my conviction stands in XBI, which appeared to have strong upside at this time last week: With the price stalling at the 50-Day Moving Average after a $5+ rally, I am now a bit concerned that there is limited upside in the short-term. Once XBI can break through the 50-Day Moving Average, the upside seems to be a strong probability play, but until then, I’d rather look for an alternative trade. [When you know these key setups, spotting the lucrative Outlier trades gets crazy easy. Click here for your Outlier Roadmap.]( So, with that in mind, I’ll start looking at other sectors, with one idea being to look at financials with the ETF XLF: XLF is an interesting idea given that it has been bullish for months and stalled ahead of earnings. But, with most financial institutions having released earnings, the next run can be based upon technicals once again. And now, XLF is back above all my key moving averages and testing recent highs. A move above the March high would be even more bullish. Perhaps a more leveraged way to play this, especially given a general delay in the move, is via the regional banks, and for that I’ll look at the ETF KRE: The trend isn’t nearly as clear here, but the leverage is certainly there. With a move above the March highs yesterday (albeit only by a few cents), there’s a clear entry point. For me, I’d be looking to exit if the ETF fails to hold above the 100-Day Moving Average, with potential short-term upside of about 6% before hitting the highs of December. If this all plays out, though, I like looking at something that’s even more leveraged since I can leverage the trade with options and define my risk in case of an ultimate failure of the company and stock. So, I’m looking at a higher risk play that could just be getting started, NYCB: This stock has been on my Outlier Watch List for 2 straight weeks now with different entry points as the potential for a rally increases. It might be on it for a third given how this move is getting started. With potential upside to the earnings gap from January putting the stock nearly 100% higher than current prices, I see a lot of interesting potential for leverage in this stock if the regional banks provide a bullish backdrop. So, with that in mind, take a look at the Outlier Watch List and you can see how I apply options analysis to leveraged and trending stock moves. As always, please go to []( to review how I traditionally apply technical signals, volatility analysis, and probability analysis to my options trades. And if you have any questions, never hesitate to reach out. Keith Harwood Keith@optionhotline.com --------------------------------------------------------------- See Related Articles on [TradewinsDaily.com]( [This Set Up Lit Up My Great Trade Radar]( [Chart of the Day: Revisiting First Solar (FSLR)]( [Top Ways to Trade the Uranium Bull Market]( [Money Management and Diversity]( [Utility Sector Begins to Heat Up!]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [TradeWins Logo]( © 2024 Tradewins Publishing. All rights reserved. | [Privacy Policy]( | [Terms and Conditions]( | [Contact Us]( Auto-trading, or any broker or advisor-directed type of trading, is not supported or endorsed by TradeWins. For additional information on auto-trading, you may visit the SEC's website: All About Auto-Trading, TradeWins does not recommend or refer subscribers to broker-dealers. You should perform your own due diligence with respect to satisfactory broker-dealers and whether to open a brokerage account. You should always consult with your own professional advisers regarding equities and options on equities trading. 1. The information provided by the newsletters, trading, training and educational products related to various markets (collectively referred to as the "Services") is not customized or personalized to any particular risk profile or tolerance. Nor is the information published by TradeWins Publishing ("TradeWins") a customized or personalized recommendation to buy, sell, hold, or invest in particular financial products. The Services are intended to supplement your own research and analysis. 2. 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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. Also, the hypothetical results do not include the costs of subscriptions, commissions, or other fees. Because the trades underlying these examples have not actually been executed, the results may understate or overstate the impact of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading services in general are also designed with the benefit of hindsight, which may not be relevant to actual trading. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. TradeWins makes no representations or warranties that any account will or is likely to achieve profits similar to those shown. 7. No representation is being made that you will achieve profits or the same results as any person providing testimonial. 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