[Market Outlook] Betting On The Fed

Three Likely Scenarios That May Determine 2024 [Company Logo] Betting On The Fed Three Likely Scenarios That May Determine 2024 By Donn Goodman January 14, 2024 [image] Happy bad (cold) weather January to our loyal readers and subscribers. Hopefully, you are warm, safe, and have power. It is “dreadful” out there unless you are one of the very few who find yourself in a pleasant place with sunny skies, warm(er) weather, and not affected by the crazy Polar Vortex system most of us are under right now. The Market found its positive footing this past week. After a negative four day start to the New Year last week, the S&P started the week with a strong day out of the gate on Monday and the first full week of trading for 2024. For the week, the S&P 500 was up almost 2% and went into the green for the year to date by a small amount (0.29%). The S&P 500 is now up 10 of the last 11 weeks (bullish) and triggered a weekly all-time high as illustrated on the chart below: [image] It had been a while since we saw new highs on the S&P 500. See chart below: [image] All signs are that the markets (S&P 500 & Nasdaq Composite) are broadening out. This, too, is a bullish sign. See chart below: [image] This week, the S&P was once again carried by the Magnificent 7. Looking at the heat map, it was all about Growth stocks and, in particular, the same technology and AI favored stocks of the mega cap 7 that fueled the majority of returns from 2023. See below: [image] As you can tell from the upper left corner, the new king is Microsoft. Its market cap now exceeds Apple’s. See the two charts below: [image] [image] Most of the sentiment readings we follow are continuing to show “green lights” and reflect on the optimistic, bullish stock market environment, for the moment. See chart below: [image] When thinking/researching about additional market commentary today, I went through all the relevant and hot topics, including the cold weather, the ongoing problems in the Middle East, a potential resolution of keeping the Government open as well as the latest CPI readings, which came out slightly above expectations last week, but not enough to “spook the markets”. I settled on the recurring theme of “What’s in store for ‘24?”. Today, with the help from a talented and interesting writer (Jim Woods) at our partner firm, Eagle Publishing, I want to tread into several scenarios that could play out for the remainder of 2024 and what effect these could have on the stock market (S&P 500). Use the links below to continue reading about: - What’s in store for ‘24 - 4 primary factors driving the market’s direction - Projected levels for the S&P 500 - The Big View Bullets - Keith’s Weekly Market Analysis video - [Click here to continue as a free member]() [Click here to continue as a PREMIUM member]() Best wishes for your trading, Donn Goodman CMO Market Gauge Asset Management [image] Every week we review the big picture of the market's technical condition as seen through the lens of our Big View data charts. The bullets provide a quick summary organized by conditions we see as being risk-on, risk-off, or neutral. The the video analysis dives deeper. Get started here and continue with the links below. Risk-On - [Sector rotation]() is indicating a risk-on market environment with leading sectors being more speculative plays like Semiconductors (SMH) and Technology (XLK) while the risk-off plays like Utilities (XLU) were down the most. (+) - Several country ETFs specifically from the [Asian region outperformed]() US equities including Japan (EWJ) and India (IFN). (+) - [Risk Gauges]() improved from neutral to a weak Risk-On reading. (+) - The [volatility ratio (VIX / VXV)]() turned bullish on the week e. (+) - [Volatility (VIXY)](=) continues to make new lows confirming price price action in equities. (+) - With new CPI numbers out, the market has reacted with the assumption that the Fed is back on schedule to reduce rates , with a noticeable drop already in [short-term rates (SHY)](=). (+) - Value stocks (VTV) are once again lagging [Growth stocks (VUG)](=) on both a short and longer-term basis. (+) There's more... Use the links below to continue reading about: - What’s in store for ‘24 - 4 primary factors driving the market’s direction - Projected levels for the S&P 500 - The Big View Bullets - Keith’s Weekly Market Analysis video - [Click here to continue to the FREE analysis and video.]()[Click here to continue to the PREMIUM analysis and video](). Best wishes for your trading, Keith Schneider CEO MarketGauge P.S. When you’re ready, here are 4 free ways we can help you reach your trading goals… - [Book a call with our Chief Strategy Consultant](, Rob Quinn. 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