[Market Outlook] HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN! OR ARE THEY?

Potential signs that could derail the economy. [Company Logo] HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN! OR ARE THEY? Potential signs that could derail the economy. By Keith Schneider and Donn Goodman [image] The last six weeks have brought a partial market recovery. Most of the media and financial reporters have been telling us how much better everything now seems. The job market remains robust, with unemployment hitting new historical lows. Additionally, new unemployment claims are trending low without any real hiccup. Inflation is trending down. Gas prices have been falling for 6-8 weeks. (At this rate, maybe we will get to $1 a gallon soon). Tech stocks have come roaring back and are in a new bull market (defined by some as up 20% from the lowest point in June). Most folks are feeling relieved and are in better shape on their overall portfolio now. These are just a few of the things the media has been writing and broadcasting over the past couple of weeks. It is also what friends and clients are sharing with us as well. We always try to get you a fair and balanced outlook. Speaking of The Outlook, see the definition below (from Merriam-Webster) Definition of outlook 1a: a place offering a view b: a view from a particular place 2: POINT OF VIEW (positive outlook on life) 3: the act of looking out 4: the prospect for the future While we like to paint a favorable outlook, we feel it is our responsibility and duty to help point out where the landmines reside. MarketGauge investment strategies put risk management first. It doesn't matter whether the strategy is… …Our guru, Mish, with her discretionary portfolio, …A quantitative algo strategy that trades stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrency, …An optimized blend of our strategies, or …Our proprietary indicators, screens, and innovative ways to look at the market (i.e. Big View) that give you insight into the market's next move that you can't find elsewhere. Reduced risk, lower volatility of returns, and minimizing drawdowns are just as important to deliver as percentage gains. Therefore, to help you risk manage your portfolio (unless you want us to do it for you, and we would be glad to help), we need to constantly remind you where the current narrative may be getting it wrong. Here are some of this week's current observations: - August has been a good month so far. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are both up approximately 2.4%. Small cap stocks (IWM) are up 4.0%. Risk on assets have benefited from this rally. However, August trading, as usual, has seen light volume, so moves are accentuated and often trend. - Friday saw the first significant down day in a while. This may have been tainted by the emphasis of expiring options or on technical resistance as we cover below. - Inflation remains elevated, and there are still Fed Governors that believe the next hike in September should be 75 basis points. This would be consistent with the last two historical hikes. - Interest rates have been trending up this week. With falling commodity prices, bonds rallied the past month to 2.6% on the 10-year. This week bonds sold off, and rates closed on Friday right under 3.0%. The 10-year interest rate is now hitting resistance at the 50-day moving average. See the chart below. [image] - Commodities have been rebounding from their mid-summer sell-off. - Energy started rising again this past week. - After an early summer (seasonal) sell-off, Natural Gas has come roaring back and hit fresh new highs this past week. (this is one of MarketGauge's current holdings in one of our Algo strategies). As a direct result of the Russia-Ukraine incursion, Europe is already anticipating shortages in some countries. This has exacerbated an already costly energy market, especially in Europe. See below. [image] Watch Out. More signs that could derail the economy and the markets: [image] There are plenty of "landmines" that exist out there. Let us briefly cover each that are most relevant at this time: Click below to continue reading about the 10 threats to the economy, and the weekly Big View analysis bullets and video. [Click here to continue to the FREE analysis and video.]() [Click here to continue to the PREMIUM analysis and video](=). Best wishes for your trading, Keith Schneider CEO MarketGauge P.S. When you’re ready, here are 3 free ways we can help you reach your trading goals… - [Book a call with our Chief Strategy Consultant](=), Rob Quinn. He can quickly guide you to the resources that you'd like best. - Get the foundational building blocks of many of our strategies from Mish's book, [Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Building Your Wealth](, and accompanying bonus training. - [Review quick descriptions]() of our indicators, strategies, services and trading systems here. 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