Why So Many Investors Got This Bull Market Wrong

Next time, make sure you stick with us and avoid market timers... [Shield] AN OXFORD CLUB PUBLICATION [Liberty Through Wealth]( [View in browser]( SPONSORED [Have you heard of the Flip Trade?]( [Flip Trade]( At this moment, the $21 trillion commercial real estate market is in free fall. Most people are ducking for cover and praying their REITs and bank stocks don't get crushed. But millionaire trader Shah Gilani considers this collapse a gift from heaven. In fact, Shah has a special technique that he calls the Flip Trade... and history shows it has been able to generate huge potential gains on falling assets... gains of as much as 1,100% in 29 days. [Go here now to get the full story...]( EDITOR'S NOTE I urge you to check this before scrolling down to today's Liberty Through Wealth column... [One company - trading for less than $5 - just had one of the greatest months ever.]( The company produced $22 BILLION in revenue... the best month on record. And when you see what this company does... I think you'll understand why it's being called "the best stock to retire on." [Learn more about this amazing stock here. (But hurry! Time is of the essence.)]( - Nicole Labra, Senior Managing Editor THE SHORTEST WAY TO A RICH LIFE [Why So Many Investors Got This Bull Market Wrong]( [Alexander Green, Chief Investment Strategist, The Oxford Club]( [Alexander Green]( A new Oxford Club Member sent me a note this week. He sounded perplexed. "When I look at your Trading Portfolio, your Ten-Baggers of Tomorrow Portfolio and your All-Star Portfolio in The Oxford Communiqué, not only is virtually every position profitable but you're sitting on literally dozens of double- and triple-digit gains. How did you get it right when so many analysts got it wrong?" The answer is because we're not economic forecasters or market timers. Many of those who are - including some famous names - completely missed this bull market. And they have only themselves to blame. For example, in mid-2022, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that a "hurricane" was about to hit the U.S. economy. "You better brace yourself," he added. Last year, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio doubled down on that prediction, anticipating a "perfect storm" of economic pain. High-profile economists Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine and David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research were just as fearful. Both publicly predicted that a severe recession lay just ahead. They were dead wrong, underestimating the impact of economic stimulus, the resilience of the American consumer, the strength of the U.S. economy and the upside of higher interest rates. (Most Americans locked in low rates a few years ago on their mortgages and personal loans and are now earning higher yields on their bonds and money markets, delivering a net positive impact so far from the Fed's rate increases.) A rising stock market also increases consumer confidence as a so-called "wealth effect" kicks in. How did so many smart people get the market so wrong? It wasn't that they thought they knew things that they didn't know. It was that they thought they knew things that they couldn't know. SPONSORED [PROOF: New One Ticker (Weekly) Payouts]( [Calendar; January - June]( A multimillionaire stock trader's research explains how focusing on just one ticker every week has generated payouts up to a rare 2,614% in under 11 days... AND he's brought proof to show the world! [SEE THE PROOF]( In the past, for instance, surging interest rates often preceded recessions. So did an inverted yield curve - which we had (and still have) - where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates. But here's an important caveat: just because something has often happened in the past, it doesn't mean it will happen in the future. If it did, we could just let computer algorithms run our portfolios based on historic correlations. Many have tried this, in fact. Why haven't you heard about them? Because the financial media doesn't spend much time covering investment failures. (Unless it's fraud or a prominent manager's fall from grace.) Rather they carry stories about investment successes. And, make no mistake, no one succeeds over the long haul with a market timing approach. Sure, anyone can make an occasional good call. But as Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle famously said about market timing, "I don't know of anybody who has done it successfully and consistently. I don't even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently." Some analysts will tell you that they indeed did call this rip-roaring bull market that has taken the Dow, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the small-cap Russell 2000 to new all-time highs. But hold your applause. They still guessed about the market. And while they may have been right this time, what about next time? By contrast, we invested in various companies because we saw rising sales, improving earnings, increasing market share and well-protected profit margins. It's a bottom-up rather than a top-down approach, a strategy that holds up well during down markets and outperforms in up markets. Understand that investors who got the economy and the market wrong didn't just make a bad call. They put themselves between a rock and a hard place. How? For starters, they missed much of the 46% rise in the market since the October 2022 low - and considerably bigger gains in many individual stocks. But that's only the beginning of their problem. They still face a difficult dilemma. Having missed the upside in the market, should they now get back into stocks and take the risk of enduring a correction or a full-fledged bear market? Or should they avoid that risk and stay on the sidelines, thereby possibly missing even more bull market gains? Every market timer faces this dilemma eventually. Yet few seem to anticipate it. Most are too busy congratulating themselves for being smart and avoiding the upcoming bear market. The one they imagined but never appeared. In sum, The Oxford Club got things right not by fearing a bear market or predicting a bull market but by realizing that we couldn't know what lay just ahead for the market. It's not that we guessed right. It's that we didn't guess at all. And now we're sitting on a mountain of gains. Good investing, Alex [Leave a Comment]( [2024 Private Wealth Seminar at the Wequassett Resort & Golf Club in Harwich, Massachusetts on October 7-8, 2024]( BUILD AND PROTECT YOUR WEALTH - [Alex Green's New #1 Alternative Investment (It's Just $12!)]( - [Rolling in the Dough With This Value Play]( - [It kicked off every major bull market in crypto... now it's happening again on a specific day in April 2024.]( - [Online Trading Platform Rises...]( JOIN THE CONVERSATION [Facebook]( [Facebook]( [LinkedIn logo]( [LinkedIn]( [Email Share](mailto:?subject=A%20great%20piece%20from%20Liberty%20Through%20Wealth...&body=From%20Liberty%20Through%20Wealth:%0D%0A%0DNext%20time,%20make%20sure%20you%20stick%20with%20us%20and%20avoid%20market%20timers...%0A%0D [Email Share](mailto:?subject=A%20great%20piece%20from%20Liberty%20Through%20Wealth...&body=From%20Liberty%20Through%20Wealth:%0D%0A%0DNext%20time,%20make%20sure%20you%20stick%20with%20us%20and%20avoid%20market%20timers...%0A%0D MORE FROM LIBERTY THROUGH WEALTH [Token Offerings]( [Should You Start Your Own Business?]( [Token Offerings]( [Why You Need an AI Consultant]( [Token Offerings]( [The Deal With Argentina's Sky-High Interest Rates]( [Token Offerings]( [Are You Part of the Global 1%?]( SPONSORED [🎯 Unleash Your Profit Potential - With Just ONE Ticker Symbol 🎯]( The man who turned $37,000 into an astounding $2.7 million in four years is finally sharing his latest discovery. 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