This Indicator Is Signaling a Bull Market in 2023

January's first five days predict a bull market this year... [Shield] AN OXFORD CLUB PUBLICATION [Liberty Through Wealth]( [View in browser]( SPONSORED [My 20-Year Career Has Led to This ONE Announcement...]( Discover the big news that could help you take your trades to the next level! [RSVP Here (LIVE TODAY at 2 p.m. ET)]( EDITOR'S NOTE Today Matt Benjamin shares the reasons he believes we'll see a bull market in 2023. Investors will want to be sure to prepare themselves for this welcome sight... Luckily, Alexander Green has created a tool called the [Single-Stock Retirement Play]( - it's great if you're looking for a simple place to get started. [Go here to discover what Alex calls the "Perfect Stock."]( - Nicole Labra, Senior Managing Editor THE SHORTEST WAY TO A RICH LIFE [A Classic Market Barometer Signals "Risk On" for 2023]( [Matt Benjamin | Senior Markets Expert | The Oxford Club]( [Matthew Benjamin]( Like many things in this world, the stock market gets weirder the more closely you observe it. One odd phenomenon I've observed over the years is that long-term market patterns tend to hold, yet the forces and events that drive those patterns change considerably from year to year. For example, let's look at the "first five days" indicator, which is particularly relevant this week. This theory holds that the first five trading days of each year are an excellent predictor of how the market will perform for the entire year. The historical market data here strongly supports the theory. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac 2023, since 1950 there have been 47 years when the market was up over the first five trading days of the new year. In 39 of those years, the market was also up for the entire year. That's about 83% of the time, which is a very impressive prediction rate. It's also very good news for this market and investors right now... Because the market was up about 1.5% the first five trading days of this year, as measured by the performance of the S&P 500 from January 3 through January 9. In fact, there's even better news here if you believe in this particular market indicator. According to the Almanac, when the market rises more than 1.5% over those first five days (which has occurred 21 times since 1950), the full-year gains are truly impressive. The average full-year gain in these years is nearly 18%. Compare that with the average yearly market gain of about 11% over that time - it's a 64% outperformance. And only once since 1950 did the market rise more than 1.5% over the first five days but fall for the entire year. That happened in 2018, when stocks rose 2.8% in the first five days but dropped 6.2% by year-end. So according to this indicator, we should be in store for a very good market return in 2023. SPONSORED [WARNING: Tech Stock Crash INCOMING?]( [Businesses Falling Behind]( Zoom... Roku... Pinterest... So many tech stocks have dropped 40%... 50%... even 80% in the case of Peloton! But that's just the beginning. The Fed is turning off the money hose... inflation is rising... and stay-at-home stocks are running out of steam... And retirement expert Marc Lichtenfeld predicts more tech stocks will follow. [Click here to see what he's recommending his readers do RIGHT NOW.]( Different Drivers But here's the weird thing: All these market performances - both the first five days of January and the full year - had different causes or different drivers. For example, in 1975 the pattern held. The market rose 2.2% in the first five days and 31.5% for the year. Yet the U.S. economy contracted that year by 0.2%. In 1984, the economy expanded 7.2%. The market rose 2.4% over the first five days, yet for the full year the market rose only 1.4%. Some of the years that adhered to the pattern, like 1999, came near the end of long bull markets. Others, like 2010, came right at the beginning. In some years the Federal Reserve was easing financial conditions. In others it wasn't. Looking closely at the 21 years when the market rose more than 1.5% the first few days and had big gains for the full year, I could find no common factor that drove the market up. That raises the question: Exactly why are the first five days a good indicator of what the market will do for the full year? It's not clear at all. However, if the pattern holds this year, we might at least know why the first five days could accurately predict a good year for the market... It's because the market rally so far this year has been driven largely by last Friday's employment report. That report continued to show strength in the labor market, with employers adding 223,000 new jobs in December. While that's a healthy amount, it's the smallest monthly gain in a year - indicating that the economy is gradually cooling off. [Slowing Job Growth]( If that's not enough, wage growth slowed in December, both on a month-over-month and a year-over-year basis. And the labor force participation rate ticked up a bit in December, another promising sign that people are returning to work. If that trend continues, employers will struggle less to fill jobs and wage growth will further moderate. The Federal Reserve's dream scenario is that it can reduce wage inflation without having to push the economy into recession or cause mass layoffs. So all of this data points to the possibility of something that seemed highly unlikely just a few months ago: a soft landing for the economy. And that's why I think this year's first five trading days could be an accurate indicator of how the market performs this year. Because a soft landing - the economy cools but avoids recession - would kick-start the next bull market. Invest wisely, Matt P.S. [Go here]( to discover Alexander Green's "Perfect Stock" - you'll find all of the details in his highly coveted [Single-Stock Retirement Play](. [Leave a Comment]( [IU 2023]( JOIN THE CONVERSATION [Facebook]( [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [Twitter]( [Email Share](mailto:?subject=A%20great%20piece%20from%20Liberty%20Through%20Wealth...&body=From%20Liberty%20Through%20Wealth:%0D%0A%0DJanuary's%20first%20five%20days%20predict%20a%20bull%20market%20this%20year...%0A%0D [Email Share](mailto:?subject=A%20great%20piece%20from%20Liberty%20Through%20Wealth...&body=From%20Liberty%20Through%20Wealth:%0D%0A%0DJanuary's%20first%20five%20days%20predict%20a%20bull%20market%20this%20year...%0A%0D MORE FROM LIBERTY THROUGH WEALTH [Chart Pattern Teacher]( [The One (and Only) Chart Pattern You Need to Know]( [Bullish on 2023]( [Why I'm Bullish on 2023]( [Stop Doing This in 2023]( [Stop Doing This in 2023]( [Hand Drawing Patterns]( [This Simple Chart Pattern Delivered Mind-Blowing Same-Day Gains]( SPONSORED [Wall Street Legend Warns "Financial Reset" is Coming]( A historic event in 2023 could soon result in a run on the banks. [Get out of cash and into a new vehicle 50 years in the making.]( [The Oxford Club]( You are receiving this email because you subscribed to Liberty Through Wealth. Liberty Through Wealth is published by The Oxford Club. Questions? Check out our [FAQs](. Trying to reach us? [Contact us here.]( Please do not reply to this email as it goes to an unmonitored inbox. [Privacy Policy]( | [Whitelist Liberty Through Wealth]( | [Unsubscribe]( © 2023 The Oxford Club, LLC All Rights Reserved The Oxford Club | [105 West Monument Street](#) | [Baltimore, MD 21201](#) North America: [1.800.589.3430](#) | International: [+1.443.353.4334](#) | Fax: [1.410.329.1923](#) [Oxfordclub.com]( The Oxford Club is a financial publisher that does not offer any personal financial advice or advocate the purchase or sale of any security or investment for any specific individual. Members should be aware that although our track record is highly rated by an independent analysis and has been legally reviewed, investment markets have inherent risks and there can be no guarantee of future profits. The stated returns may also include option trades. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in their own securities recommendations to readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after online publication or 72 hours after the mailing of printed-only publications prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by The Oxford Club should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. The information found on this website may only be used pursuant to the membership or subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of The Oxford Club, 105 W. Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201.