The World is Out of Quarantine, but Not Out of Crisis

When will the global economy come back to life? Protests across the US in response to the death of George Flyod while in police custody, many with outbreaks of violence and looting, have yet to fully subside, stretching out for more than a week and forcing ongoing night time curfews in many major US cities. Many worry that these protests could trigger a resurgence in COVID-19 case rates and deepen the economic decline from COVID-19. According to our pre-protest estimates, the global economic decline could be double what the International Monetary Fund predicted in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Explore these themes and more in today's newsletter. Interested in featuring your coronavirus-related data in a future issue? Have a topic you would like Knoema to highlight? We welcome your submissions via [DataDriven@knoema.com](mailto:datadriven@knoema.com). From the Headlines [Protests Sweep America]( We estimate that during a six-day period, over 100,000 people across the United States took part in protests in response to the death of George Floyd on 25 May. [Read on]( [3rd Wave of COVID-19 Exacerbates Global Recession]( We estimate that the world economy may contract by double that of earlier IMF predictions. [Read on]( 50 States (and Counties) Divided: COVID-19 Cases and Testing Centers AllClear gives us an opportunity for an initial data-based look into how the number of testing centers across US counties stacks up relative to population and COVID-19 cases to date. [Read on]( China Car Sales Rebound for the 1st Time in 2 Years Car sales in China increased in April to 1.9 million units, marking the first time since July 2018 that car sales did not decline. [Read on]( Have a friend or colleague that loves data? [Send them this email]( Interested in what Knoema can do for your organization? [Get on a call]( Insights Around the Web The volume of world merchandise trade is likely to fall precipitously in the first half of 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic disrupts the global economy. The Goods Trade Barometer Index currently stands at 87.6, far below the baseline value of 100, suggesting a sharp contraction in world trade extending into the second quarter. [Source]( The COVID-19 crisis is causing the largest decrease in global energy investment in history - a reduction of one-fifth (or, almost $400 billion) in capital spending compared with 2019. Some of the most dramatic cuts in the oil and gas sector – in many cases above 50% – have been among highly leveraged shale players in the United States. [Source]( By the end of May 2020, $9 trillion of fiscal support globally was deployed to help people and firms get through the COVID-19 crisis, which is $1 trillion more than in April 2020. Direct budget support is currently estimated at $4.4 trillion globally, and additional public sector loans and equity injections, guarantees, and other quasi-fiscal operations (such as non-commercial activity of public corporations) amount to another $4.6 trillion. [Source]( The demand for teleconferencing has skyrocketed as many people have transitioned to working—and socializing—from home. Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Zoom meeting participants have increased from 10 million in December 2019 to a whopping 300 million as of April 2020. As a result, by the mid-May 2020 Zoom’s market capitalization had skyrocketed to $48.8 billion, which exceeds the combined value of the seven biggest airlines. [Source]( New Data at Knoema ifo Business Climate Index, Germany Data Source: [IFO Institute]( Business sentiment improved in Germany in May, as reflected by the ifo Business Climate Index (seasonally adjusted), which increased to 79.5 points from 74.2 in April. The uptick in the index was made possible by a sharp increase in business climate expectations. [Chart View]( Hong Kong GDP by Economic Activity Data Source: [Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong]( Hong Kong’s economic recession deepened in Q1 2020, with GDP growth contracting 8.9% YoY. This was the largest contraction since current records began and was deeper than the 8.3% contraction during the Asian Financial Crisis in 1998 and the 7.8% during the Global Financial Crisis (2008-2009). [Chart View]( India State/UT wise COVID-19 Statistics Data Source: [Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, India]( In India, confirmed COVID-19 cases reached 198,706 and deaths 5,598 as of 2 June 2020, according to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, India. The fatality rate due to COVID-19 stands at 2.82%, one of the lowest in the world. India is the 7th worst hit country by the COVID-19 pandemic after the United States, Brazil, Russia, the United Kingdom, Spain and Italy, according to the [WHO](. [Chart View]( Stay well. Charles Poliacof CEO, Knoema [knoema.com]( [Twitter]( [Facebook]( [Website]( Copyright © 2020 Knoema. All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you are a registered Knoema user. Our mailing address is: Knoema 1750 Tysons BlvdMcLean, VA 22102 [Add us to your address book]( Want to change how you receive these emails? You can [update your preferences]( or [unsubscribe from this list](.