US Driving Traffic is Bouncing Back

COVID-19 restrictions relaxation to soften the blow, disproportionate burden of COVID-19 mortality, and real stats for situation in Russia We’re at a new juncture in the days of the COVID-19 pandemic. With asynchronous spread of the virus comes now the asynchronous rebound, and for the global economy that will inevitably be depressed growth potential, as we discussed in last week’s newsletter. As some countries emerge and recover from what may even only be the first wave of the pandemic, others wait for the pandemic’s peak within their local and national communities, with the global economic consequences of COVID-19 already bearing down on them. In the United States, some states have moved swiftly to reopen, with related indicators rebounding rapidly, such as vehicle traffic. At the same time, within some communities, people of specific races have been acutely and disproportionately affected and will need more targeted assistance to return to (economic) normal. Elsewhere in the world the data likewise gives color to how the COVID-19 burden is playing out. As highlighted in the New Data section of this newsletter, industrial production in India started to fall in March and will likely only worsen in April; across the globe in Argentina, zero vehicles were produced in April. Zero. As we approach the end of the 2Q and the flood of new data that will come with it, we raise these data issues for you in hope that you can use this data to stay informed and gain perspective as we watch how local, national, and ultimately the global economy navigate through this pandemic. Interested in featuring your COVID-related data in a future issue? Have a topic you would like Knoema to highlight? We welcome your submissions via [DataDriven@knoema.com](mailto:datadriven@knoema.com). US Driving Trends Reflect Relaxation of COVID-19 Restrictions In recent weeks, drivers have returned to the roads across the United States as states have increasingly relaxed social distancing guidelines. As of the week starting May 11, driving activity measured as the number of miles per commuter topped the pre COVID-19 peak (different for each state) for two US states, and in 14 US states driving activity increased to 80% or more of the pre-COVID driving levels, according to Nexar. [Read on]( United States: The Unexplained Burden of COVID-19 Mortality by Racial Group COVID-19 death rates across the United States demonstrate an interesting truth, with yet to be fully understood cause(s) as to how the pandemic has spread nationally: race matters. [Read on]( Insights Around the Web Increasing transparency by Russian officials shows that 233% more coronavirus-positive patients died in at least two regions than reported previously in the total count. [Source]( The National Ensemble Forecast (on COVID-19) for the United States, which combines 12 individual forecasts, suggests that the number of cumulative reported deaths are likely to exceed 100,000 by June 1. State-level ensemble forecasts indicate that states with low numbers of deaths reported to date are not likely to see a rapid rise in the coming weeks, while states with high numbers of deaths reported to date are likely to see substantial increases. [Source]( New data shows that global domestic (i.e. household) water demand grew 600% from 1960-2014, a significantly faster rate than any other sector. Watering lawns is a major driver of household water use in some countries. [Source]( According to initial estimates, the development of a vaccine against the COVID-19 virus will require at least $2 billion, which is far below the annual global cost of moderately severe to severe pandemics, estimated at $570 billion. [Source]( While official foreign trade statistics are typically delayed by many weeks, the newly-developed methodology that uses ships’ radio signals provides real time estimates of world trade. Though the research is in progress, the first results clearly show that the automotive industry is most affected by COVID-19 disruptions. [Source]( New Data at Knoema Claimant Count and Vacancies in the UK Data Source: [Office for National Statistics, United Kingdom]( The monthly jobless claims report from the UK’s Office for National Statistics revealed a 69.1% MoM increase in claims in April to reach 2.1 million, the largest month-on-month jump since records began in 1970. The increase comes even as the government has implemented an emergency wage subsidy that pays 80% of workers’ wages up to sterling pound 2,500 per month. [Chart View]( Automobiles and Commercial Vehicle Production and Sales in Argentina Data Source: [Association of Automotive Makers]( Vehicle sales, exports, and production data from Argentina's Association of Automotive Makers confirms the dire consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for the automotive industry in yet another country. Amidst lockdown, Argentina did not produce any vehicles in April. The production plummeted 38.32% in the first four month of 2020 compared to the first four months of 2019. Sales to dealers declined 73.6% YoY while exports fell 88.4% YoY in April. [Chart View]( India: Index of Industrial Production (IIP) Data Source: [Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation]( Official data from the Ministry of Statistics of India offers insight into the country’s industrial production index disaggregated by use-based sectors. The index of industrial production contracted 16.7% as the spread of COVID-19 began to disrupt economic activity in late March. Among the key sectors, manufacturing output contracted 20.6%, while mining remained flat in March. The full impact of lockdown will likely be reflected more fully in April’s figures. [Chart View]( Stay well. Charles Poliacof CEO, Knoema [knoema.com]( Have a friend or colleague that loves data? [Send them this email](. Interested in what Knoema can do for your organization? [Get]( a call](. [Twitter]( [Facebook]( [Website]( Copyright © 2020 Knoema. All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you are a registered Knoema user. Our mailing address is: Knoema 1750 Tysons BlvdMcLean, VA 22102 [Add us to your address book]( Want to change how you receive these emails? You can [update your preferences]( or [unsubscribe from this list](.