US Protests Against COVID-19 Lockdown

Global GDP to contract for 1st time since WWII; the vulnerability of hourly wage earners during COVID; social protests spreading across the US In our newsletter last week, we talked about how traditional leading indicators of economic health have become lagging indicators. Underscoring this theme, the IMF released the latest edition of its flagship World Economic Outlook last week with not only a shortened forecast horizon and restricted data topics but a dark outlook for (negative) global GDP growth in 2020 as well. Economic activity has clearly ground to a halt under the spread of coronavirus, from consumer purchases to production of goods and services (even energy!). And, given the dramatic drop in production, unemployment has skyrocketed. According to the US Department of Labor, the increased number of unemployed people in the last month will push the US unemployment rate into the range of 10% to 15% in April. Hourly workers stand to be affected the most in this situation. For many households, government-imposed restrictions that have contributed to unemployment translate into the loss of the sole household income source. This vulnerability is one of the triggers behind the social protests sweeping the US in recent weeks as marchers beseech policymakers to restart local economies. Such protests paradoxically could corner the US federal government into taking extreme measures to further contain the pandemic, measures that would run counter to an economic restart and likely inflame protests. Americans’ buying behavior under COVID contradicts the emotional scenes playing out at the marches. The latest data shows Americans driving up demand for domestic goods while in ‘safer-at-home’ mode. In this issue, you can learn more about US consumers and the differences shown in the data between their intentions and actual sales, as well as the motivations behind these behaviors. Interested in featuring your COVID-related data in a future issue? Have a topic you would like Knoema to highlight? We welcome your submissions via DataDriven@knoema.com. How Deep an Economic Decline Can the World Expect in 2020? For the first time during the post World War II era, the global economy is expected to shrink due to measures in force worldwide to suppress the coronavirus, according to the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) released on April 14, 2020. In this edition of the WEO, the IMF shortened the forecast horizon to 2021 instead of the expected 2025 horizon and limited the number of indicators available in its statistical tables because of the high level of uncertainty in current global economic conditions. [Read more]( Cognovi Labs | Shifting to Made in the USA The tendency to buy domestic products has always been observed in consumer behavior. In a pandemic situation, emotions are elevated and carry through to consumer behavior. According to Cognovi Labs, Americans are becoming more motivated to buy goods made in America. [Read more]( Tracking US Protests Against COVID-19 Lockdowns A growing number of social protests have swept the United States this month in opposition to measures imposed to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Protesters seek policy changes to restart state economies and are providing fresh political opportunities that President Trump has reframed via Twitter as an imperative to 'LIBERATE' US states from COVID-19 restrictions. [Read more]( Insights Around the Web While the US is still imposing 15% tariffs on imports of personal protective equipment from China as part of the trade war, US imports of protective masks from China this February dropped more than 20% compared to February of last year. It was the lowest import volume of Chinese masks for any February since 2015. [Source]( Rebounding electricity production indicates that China's manufacturing sector is on the road to recovery and weaker exports will not stall it due to lower export-dependency. As recent analysis shows, share of merchandise exports in Chinese GDP in 2019 were about half the level of 2008, both in gross and value-added terms. [Source]( The shutdown of schools and near-closure of food service has nearly zeroed demand for many agricultural and food products in the US. Since the beginning of 2020, beef and pork futures have fallen more than 30 percent. Milk futures are down 28-34 percent. Ethanol futures fell 40 percent, corn dropped 15 percent, and soybeans are down 10 percent. [Source]( For the first time since the COVID-19 virus took hold in China, Beijing reported data on people with no clear signs of illness who have been diagnosed with coronavirus. The data suggests that COVID-19 symptoms may not appear in 65-80% of cases. [Source]( Steps taken to combat the COVID-19 outbreak will likely balloon the federal budget deficit to about 17%, the highest ratio since World War II. The debt-to-GDP ratio of the federal government is expected to rise to 96% in FY 2020 from 79% in FY 2019. [Source]( Alt Data Discoveries [Mobility Trends Report across Globe from Apple]( For a limited time during the COVID‑19 pandemic, Apple Inc. will be providing mobility [data]( at national and subnational levels that are derived from requests for directions in its Apple Maps app. The data highlights the extent to which safer-at-home policies have deterred people globally from biking and walking relative to the pre-COVID-19 baseline of January 13, 2020. [Read more]( [COVID-19 Impact on U.S. Local Businesses and Hourly Employees]( A closer examination of daily employment [data]( for hourly US workers and the activity of local businesses courtesy of Homebase—a US-based company providing employee scheduling and time tracking services—suggests that the economic situation on the ground could be even worse than official US employment figures indicate so far. [Read more]( Follow our[Coronavirus and Alternative Data]( dashboard as we update it with new use cases to explore topics relevant to coronavirus and the data providers we have discovered who can provide timely data on these topics. Need a guide through the world of alternative data? Contact pchan@knoema.com. New Data in Knoema Data Source: [New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene]( Syndromic Surveillance Data for New York. The dataset captures Syndromic Surveillance Data published by New York city health department. The dataset covers cases of following medical conditions - asthma, diarrhea, influenza-like illness, respiratory diseases and vomiting by patient’s date of visit, age group and geography. Along with New York city 5 major regions- Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan Queens and Staten Island is covered. Though the incidence of respiratory disease cases has remained highest compared to all other syndromes, it peaked up at an unprecedented rate amidst the outbreak of COVID-19 across the world. In March 2020, the maximum number of cases reported for respiratory disease in a single day in New York City reached 4197, followed by influenza like illness- 1689, vomiting-153, diarrhea-150 and asthma-142 respectively. This dataset covers a period from January 2001 to April 2020. Data Source: [U.S. Energy Information Administration]( What drives Crude Oil Prices? April 2020. The dataset captures the potential determinants causing movement in crude oil prices globally. Interplay of selected parameters of three major markets- physical, trade and financial are covered. The year on year percentage change in supply, is projected to record a steady decline in upcoming quarters: 0.83% in 2020 Q1 to -1.8% in Q2 to -1.75% in Q3 and -2.17% in 2020 Q4.The change in pattern of liquid fuel consumption is estimated to decline sharply in 2020 Q2 to -12.17% and eventually stabilize at -0.42% by the end of 4th quarter in 2020. The movement in prices in commodities like wheat, corn and gold shows an inflection from negative to positive correlation with crude oil prices in Q1 of 2020. Corn prices recorded the highest variation in correlation in the consecutive quarters from -0.07% in Q4 of 2019 to 0.51% in 2020 Q1. This dataset is available for the period 2000 January to 2021 October. Data Source: [National Bureau of Statistics, China]( China: Domestic Trade - Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods. The dataset covers retail trade in China. China’s high frequency indicators continue to incapacitate in March, though compared to slower than the first two months of 2020. The retail sales contracted 15.8 percent YoY in March, after a 20.5 percent decline in the first two months of the 2020. The reading was below to market expectations of 10 percent decline. The decline shows still people are still afraid of going to crowded places such as malls and restaurants amid COVID-19 fear. The dataset covers 2000 January to 2020 March. Data Source: [Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India]( Foreign Trade Statistics of India. The dataset covers merchandise and services exports and imports of India. India’s merchandise exports plummeted to record 34.6 percent YoY in March against growth of 2.9 percent in the previous month, while imports slumped 28.7 percent YoY in March contrast to 2.4 percent in the previous month. The sharp decline in exports and imports came as most of the countries had sealed the border to control the spread of COVID-19. Out of 30 major items that India exports and imports, 29 items experienced contraction in March reflects the slow global demand amid lockdown across the world to stop the spread of COVID-19. The continued lockdown in major economies is going to aggravate the global demand and would have spillover impact in April as well. The dataset covers from 2000 January to 2020 March. Stay well. Charles Poliacof CEO, Knoema [Website]( ✉️ Have a friend or colleague that loves data? [Send them this email](. Interested in what Knoema can do for your organization? [Get]( a call](. [Join For Free]( [Twitter]( [Facebook]( [Website]( Copyright © 2020 Knoema. All rights reserved. You are receiving this email because you are a registered Knoema user. 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