Historical Clues to Where Stocks Go Next

Plus: CDC Eases Mask Guidance You are receiving this limited-time email resource as a subscriber to Kiplinger's free e-newsletters. To unsubscribe at any time, simply click the link in the footer below. FEBRUARY 25, 2022 [View in browser]( HOW TO PROTECT AND GROW YOUR BUSINESS AND INVESTMENTS NOW Are Ukraine crisis investing clues hidden in recent market scares? Several market strategists hoping to provide context about how U.S. equities will cope with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have looked to the past. But rather than reviewing the market’s reaction to prior military conflicts, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. Equity Strategy for RBC Capital Markets, says economic growth scares in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis – such as the 2010 and 2011 aftershocks, or the 2018 Chinese trade war – might be more useful reference points. “All shocked the investment community with a previously unthinkable event of significant magnitude, and investors struggled to understand the implications for markets and the economy early on. All caused fears of recession to rise, though none resulted in an actual economic recession,” she says. So, what do these data points tell us? On average across these events, the S&P 500 dropped from 14% to 20% from peak to trough, averaging 17.3%. As of Wednesday, the index’s drawdown was approaching 12%, or just shy of this “scare” territory. As far as what happened once the market actually fell into a full-blown growth scare: “Though the duration of the drawdowns varied, ranging from two to nine months, there was a remarkable degree of consistency in the time that it took for the stock market to return to pre-crisis highs, just four to five months. Six to 12 months later, the total recovery off the trough averaged 24% to 30%.” [Check out our latest market analysis of the situation]( including more signals of how the market might react, as well as what the Russian invasion means for equity sectors and commodities. --------------------------------------------------------------- SPONSORED CONTENT FROM ALTERNATIVE ASSETS [This Newsletter Analyzes the Heck Out of Alternative Investments]( Stocks are a great way to grow your money. But they’re not the only way. That's why we've been reading the Alts newsletter. Follow as they demystify new markets: - NFTs - Artwork - Wine - Startups - Music rights - Books You name it, they cover it. [Subscribe to Alts for free.]( [READ MORE]( --------------------------------------------------------------- The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is relaxing its guidance on mask-wearing today, saying that masks should no longer be required indoors in most places. The CDC will also change the criteria by which it does recommend masks, from simple case counts to a mix that includes consideration of how full hospitals are in the area, and whether case numbers are accelerating. While mask policy is still up to state and local authorities, the CDC guidance is influential. However, masks will still be required on planes, trains and other forms of public interstate travel for now, because those are governed by federal regulations. The shift in CDC guidance is likely to partly take mask-wearing out of the contentious public debate that mandates ignited, leaving the decision more up to personal circumstances. The immunocompromised will likely want to continue wearing masks, for example, plus those who have COVID-like symptoms. Free download, [The Kiplinger Letter's Forecast](. No information required from you. SPONSORED CONTENT FROM GO2INCOME [Enough Retirement Income Today and in Future?]( With inflation concerns adding to the issues of low interest rates and volatile stock markets, retirement income plans are under pressure. Go2Income can provide you with a complimentary personalized plan that delivers both a high starting income and growing lifetime income, as well as long-term savings. [Click here to design your own plan.]( [READ MORE]( RELATED LINKS [3 MLPs Throwing Off Massive 8%-9% Yields]( [How to Motivate Kids to Save]( [War in Ukraine to Boost Prices at the Pump]( [Electric Vehicles Take Charge in 2022]( [Sign Up for Kiplinger's Free Tax Tips E-Newsletter for Money-Saving Tax Planning and Compliance Advice]( [Kiplinger] © Future US LLC. All rights reserved. [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [LinkedIn]( Unsubscribe [click here]( Future US LLC. Registered address: 10th floor, 1100 13th Street, N.W Washington, DC 20005. Further information about how we use your data can be found in our [Privacy Policy](.