Plus: Pessimism About a Fast-Tracked Stimulus Bill
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AUGUST 5, 2020 [View in browser](
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
Ultimately, there could be several winners in the race to develop a COVID-19 vaccine. Novavax’s ([NVAX]( potential COVID-19 vaccine just joined others from Moderna ([MRNA]( AstraZeneca ([AZN]( and Pfizer ([PFE]( ([BNTX]( in showing positive results in small, early studies called Phase 1 trials. Moderna has already moved on to its Phase 3 trial on a much larger number of subjects, and AstraZeneca and Pfizer are recruiting for Phase 3. Potential vaccines by Johnson & Johnson ([JNJ]( Sanofi ([SNY]( and others are also expected to make it to the large trial phase but have not finished their Phase 1 trials yet.
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The first company to complete Phase 3 and show positive results will have an advantage, because it would get to start first on mass production. Other vaccines might find footholds best serving specific populations. But with so many players, late entrants to the market may find themselves squeezed out. Right now, Moderna is in the lead, which is why its stock price has nearly quadrupled in 2020. As for the U.S. economy, a vaccine would allow services industries to come back fully, dramatically lowering the unemployment rate and allowing lots of new small businesses to launch. (In May, [Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi told Kiplinger]( “We won’t kick into gear until they find a vaccine or a medical treatment that is effective for the virus.”)
There’s also progress on the therapeutics front. Synairgen’s ([SYGGF]( interferon beta formulation, SNG001, reduced the severity of cases in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in a recent trial of 100 people in the United Kingdom. Patients taking the drug were more than twice as likely to recover from COVID-19 than patients who received a placebo.
STIMULUS WATCH: Democratic congressional leaders and White House representatives are making concessions -- and therefore progress -- on enhanced unemployment benefits, extending the eviction moratorium, and aid to state and local governments. Plus, they set a goal of agreeing to a deal by the end of this week. We’re not optimistic they’ll succeed so soon. The overall price tag is the major sticking point. And, unlike most big deals on the Hill, this is a two-front battle -- Democrats vs. Republicans, of course, but also Republicans vs. Republicans. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Democrats aren’t budging on their request for $3.4 trillion, while Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is only offering $1 trillion -- and there's a big revolt within his caucus over spending even that much.
The $600-per-week in special unemployment benefits and a federal eviction moratorium have already expired, which means some Americans are about to fall off a financial cliff. The House has already postponed its summer break until a deal is reached, and it's looking more and more like the Senate, scheduled to recess on Monday, will do the same.
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