Plus: Corporate Insiders Are Selling Stock
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JULY 24, 2020 [View in browser](
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK
The seven-day average of new COVID-19 infections in the U.S., at 67,000 per day, is still rising. However, the number of tests being given is also rising, to 780,000 per day. Positive tests as a percentage of total tests have been holding steady at about 8.5% nationally. However, there is a great deal of difference in positive percentages among states. There are 13 states at 10% or above, indicating that more testing is needed to find undetected cases. Among this group, positive rates have worsened in recent weeks in Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Mississippi, Missouri and Nevada; they have improved in Texas and Utah. (The other six states that are holding roughly steady are Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Kansas, Louisiana and South Carolina. This list includes 14 states because Utah dropped out of the 10% group this week.)
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CDC Director Robert Redfield said recently that true COVID-19 infections are likely 10 times higher than confirmed diagnoses because not everyone who gets the infection gets tested. With 3.9 million confirmed cases since March, that could mean around 40 million actual infections, or about 12% of the total U.S. population. That has led some to speculate that we are nearing “herd immunity,” the point at which those who are already immune slow down the rate of infection for the entire community, because they are not catching the virus and passing it on. However, scientists estimate that 60% to 70% of a community needs to be immune for herd immunity to take place. That isn’t likely until a vaccine is found.
Don’t look now, but corporate insiders are cashing out. We occasionally provide investors with a look into [corporate insider buying]( (the [legal kind]( of course) and what stocks company officers and other major shareholders are snapping up. After all, how the people most intimately connected with a company feel about its stock can be an important signal of where it’s going next. If that’s the case, though, insiders might be sending a major bearish signal right now. Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, [points to data]( from Bloomberg and The Washington Service showing that: “Nearly 1,000 corporate executives have sold shares of their own companies this month, outpacing insider buyers by 5-to-1 … only twice in the past 3 decades has sell-buy ratio been higher than now.” The past four times insider sell-to-buy ratios have been anywhere near these levels, the market has dropped off -- typically by high-single-digit amounts within a few months. But those losses were typically recouped in a few months, too. If you’re in it for the long run, there’s little to worry about here, but you might consider dusting off your wish list in case there’s a sudden discount on a stock or two that you’ve been eyeing.
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