A Katusa Special Situations Company Alert [Katusa Research] KATUSA SPECIAL SITUATIONS COMPANY ALERT Li-FT Power Corp. (US OTC: LIFFF | TSVX: LIFT) **PLEASE READ FULL DISCLOSURES/DISCLAIMER** FULL DISCLOSURE: I (Marin Katusa) and other members of Katusa Research have bought Li-FT Power shares in the open market (I purchased 7 figures worth of stock). I may look to increase my position in the future. This is a highly speculative stock that comes with significant investment risk. If this bothers you, do not invest. Let’s get right into it… Ready or not, EVs are coming in a big way and those cars need lithium and lots of it. And they are going to annihilate internal combustion engines (ICEs). Consider this: - 87% of the top car manufacturers in the world have committed to banning ICEs.
- Europe is banning ICEs completely starting in under a decade.
- And all major countries are committing hundreds of billions to EV development through programs like the U.S.’s Inflation Reduction Act, which included $47 billion for EVs.
Based on the coming growth in EVs, McKinsey says: “Lithium mining will need to increase significantly. Meeting demand for lithium in 2030… will require significant additional investment in mining projects.”
Just look at the chart below. In nine years, the world will need 300% more lithium. And right now, the global lithium supply chain is effectively controlled by just two countries: China and Chile. They’re both extremely unpredictable. One country nationalized any new lithium supply last year, and the other (China) is actively threatening to cut it off for geopolitical leverage. And China is winning the Resource Wars right now. The United States is On Notice It must either procure domestic lithium and domestic lithium processing, or it will not be able to produce EVs and decarbonize its economy. The U.S. effort to bring lithium production back to North America has created an incredible investment opportunity. Allies can both help fix the lithium deficit it is barreling toward—and make a mint in the meantime. And Canada, with a few giant lithium deposits, is in first position to provide billions of dollars of lithium to the United States. We’ve identified what we believe is one of the best deposits in North America. And the company that owns this project has a lot going for it. 8 Reasons and Catalysts
to Put Li-FT Power on Your Radar #1: Potential for a Massive Lithium Resource Li-FT Power’s Yellowknife project is expected to exceed 100 million tonnes of lithium-bearing ore. That would make it one of the largest development-stage lithium projects in North America. A resource above 100 million tonnes of lithium-bearing ore would put it solidly on the radar of mainstream investors and majors and should trade at a premium to its peers. #2: Highly Attractive Valuation vs. Peers Few analysts cover Li-FT Power, and no resource estimate has been released—so this company just isn’t on the radar of most investors. As a result, our analysis indicates that it is currently trading at a significant discount to its peers. Disclosure: This chart is based on internal Katusa Research analysis ONLY
Its massive size and development potential are likely to draw attention from major producers, EV manufacturers, and even foreign governments. The immediate M&A potential could drive a significant stock rerating. #3: The Right Entry Point: The Way of the Alligator requires patiently waiting while prices come to you. After a huge run-up in 2022, lithium prices corrected nearly 80% in 2023—and with them, so did lithium company valuations. It’s taken a year of waiting, but Li-FT Power has finally entered my buy range. The long-term case for lithium is obvious. If you are following EVs, or renewable energy, or decarbonization, you know we are going to need a lot more lithium production. A year ago, this company was financed by some of the largest lithium investors in the world at $14 per share before a single drill hole turned (because of the historical information on the project). Today, the company has drilled over $25 million worth of drilling hitting high-grade lithium and the stock is trading at $6. This is a classic example of a high-value, beaten-down stock that is ready to run at the slightest pickup in lithium prices or good news. #4: Ultra-High Profit Margin Production Our internal analysis projects production costs of $600/tonne. At current depressed lithium prices, that yields profit margins comparable to open-pit gold mines (53% spodumene vs. 55% gold, using today’s prices). Using the 2023 average spodumene price, Li-FT could generate margins of 80%+. Every major mining CEO in the world would want to get in on that action. #5: Lots of Skin in the Game Founders, management, and directors own 57% of shares. They are extremely incentivized to bring this project to profitable development. Outside of the founders, the cost base of major investors is 50-100% above current prices. Meanwhile, a selloff has continued—even despite excellent drill results. The tight share structure and low price make this a very tightly wound spring. Li-FT Power Has Major Catalysts on the Horizon Major Catalyst #1:
Resource Estimate Release
Release of the upcoming resource estimate and the Preliminary Economic Assessment is set to indicate a resource with the potential to get to over 100 million tonnes of lithium bearing ore. That would likely provide a substantial boost to Li-FT’s valuation. Major Catalyst #2:
Lithium Price Recovery
Falling interest rates in ’24 should incentivize new EV manufacturing, fanning the flames of lithium. A rebound in lithium prices would likely increase the value of lithium in the ground, while also incentivizing M&A. Major Catalyst #3:
M&A Accelerating in Safe Jurisdictions
High prices and the prospect of a long-term shortage have fueled an international race to control lithium resources. In the past 12 months, there has been a frenzy of successful (and unsuccessful) investments and takeover attempts of developers by major lithium producers:
- ExxonMobil announced it intended to become a major lithium supplier. - Gina Rinehart, Wealthiest person in Australian and an Australian iron ore and steel tycoon worth more than $20B, dove headfirst into lithium with major M&A activity. - A $4.2B takeover of a lithium miner was shut down because the premium wasn’t high enough. - In total, there have been 150 different M&A transactions globally in lithium, valued at over $10B.
I believe we will see more of these big power moves in the coming years as lithium deposits in safe jurisdictions become increasingly critical power sources for the free world. I wouldn’t have Li-FT Power in my portfolio unless I thought it was an excellent M&A target. Keep in mind, all of the M&A above happened while the price of lithium was falling off a cliff. What is going to happen when prices start to rise? [CLICK HERE TO VIEW THE FULL LI-FT REPORT]( Regards, Marin Katusa and the KR Special Situations Team P.S. We want you to be one of the first to know about this special opportunity—especially before any of the catalysts bump the stock higher. [Click here]( to read the report now. Copyright © 2024, Katusa Research, All rights reserved.
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