Sports Wagering Strategies - Fading the Public

Buy when there is blood in the streets Hey , The Contrarian Strategy for Wagering - aka fading the public is one of the most common ways to wager and has been for quite some time. The premise is the public does not have a great understanding of what a line should be, so the idea is to wager the opposite.  The reason I am a believer in this strategy is because to me, it makes sense. Wagering is hard, it is not a profession for everyone, so when thousands of people who no little to nothing about proper wagering pick a game, chances are the games they pick will be wrong.  Obviously, this strategy does not work every time the public is all on one side. The key is to pick certain spots.  When you see respected news sources such as ESPN or The Athletic or whomever you choose to read talk about teams being in “crisis”, “season over”, “no chance” etc I like that as a buy low opportunity. I think of it as “buy when there is blood in the streets” to quote Baron Rothschild. The perfect recent example I can think of was Kentucky vs Tennessee in college basketball. Back in January Kentucky had just lost back-to-back games vs Alabama (by 26 points) and vs South Carolina (the worst team in the SEC) at home. Both results were unacceptable which led to articles being published about how the Cats had NO CHANCE @ #5 Tennessee. I can remember reading articles about how the hope for Kentucky was to not get destroyed by Tennessee, how the season was over, and how there was no hope for the rest of the season. However, this is also Kentucky basketball, which always will have enough talent to compete with any team. Sure enough, Kentucky went into Knoxville and won, against all odds. Guess what the spread was? Kentucky +11.5. Moneyline? Kentucky +500. How about another example....  Let’s use last night’s game – Sacramento Kings vs Dallas Mavericks. Dallas had lost 3 in a row and 7 of 8, was considering sitting Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving for the rest of the season, and there was talk that the trade for Kyrie had failed. What was NOT mentioned was the Mavs were at home, needed a win to stay in the play-in race, were playing a Kings team with minimal to play for, AND the Kings were playing on the second night of a back-to-back. So, what did the Mavericks do? They won. (They also covered the spread, but I mainly focus on moneylines for this strategy, though you could use it for spreads as well). Fading the public can be a useful tool, and supplementing it with additional filters helps be more selective and more confident in picks. Best regards, Olin G. Head of Research at Juicy Wagers       JuicyWagers.com is a publisher and the information provided through its products and services are for informational purposes only. To the extent any such information is deemed to be advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the needs of any specific person. JuicyWagers.com and its affiliates are not responsible for any actions taken by a user of their published information. Headley Investment Analysis, Inc., 201 West Vine Street, Lexington, Kentucky 40507, United States You may [unsubscribe]( or [change your contact details]( at any time.