How SDSU Can Beat UCONN Tonight!

Defense, Defense, Defense, they say it wins championships and it will have to tonight Hey , Tonight’s National Championship matchup looks like it falls into the category of David vs Goliath. David is San Diego State, who prior to this NCAA Tournament had never been to a Final Four let alone a Championship Game. The Aztecs have certainly kept the adrenaline pumping throughout their tournament run – they have won games by 6 points, 23 points, 7 points, 1 point, and 1 point. Goliath is UCONN, who is looking to add a 5th National Championship to their already strong historical resume. The Huskies have breezed through this tournament with the CLOSEST final margin of victory in their 5 games being 13 points! In the year of parity UCONN has proven to be an impossible matchup for each team they have faced.  So how to the Aztecs knock down the mighty Goliath that is UCONN?  There are 3 things that SDSU should focus on: Suffocating defense Rebounding Controlled and efficient offense  Suffocating defense: All tournament San Diego State has used their defense to carry them. In three of their five wins the opposing team shot below 35% from the field. Meanwhile the WORST UCONN has shot percentage wise is 41.7% and that was a game against Gonzaga which they won by 28 points. In terms of numbers this will be the best defensive team that UCONN has faced all tournament. The Aztecs currently rank as the 4th best defensive team per Ken Pom, and the next closest team UCONN has faced is Saint Mary’s which ranked 10th in defensive adjusted efficiency. For San Diego State to be successful defensively it starts with limiting the three pointers by UCONN. Threes are the name of the game and UCONN has multiple guys who can make shot after shot from deep. Keeping UCONN below 40% from the field, and below 35% from three point range has to be the target for the Aztecs.  Rebounding: Adding on to the defensive building block is rebounding. It is no use to play great defense for 30 seconds just to give up a put back dunk off a rebound. Furthermore, rebounding is one of the fundamental indicators (along with defense) that determines who wins and loses. To me this seems especially true in college – you have guys who don’t make every open shot like they do in the NBA. Having the ability to rebound second chances and limiting your opponent’s second chances is very useful. UCONN has two big men – Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan who cause all sorts of problems with their length and size. How San Diego State manages those two guys, especially in terms of rebounding will be key. I do think SDSU stands more of a chance than some teams did, namely Miami, in terms of rebounding. Miami only had one big man who could hang with UCONN’s guys down low. The Aztecs have more size and length than Miami so they need to do a better job of containing the boards.  Controlled Efficient Offense: This builds on the first two key points – for San Diego State to win they are going to have to shorten the game. I do not doubt that UCONN is the better team. 9 times out of 10 UCONN wins this game, but SDSU must make this the 1 time out of 10. I think the best hope that San Diego State can have is to keep this game close for as long as possible. That will put the momentum in favor of the Aztecs who have been playing close games all tournament. Offensively that means controlling the game and taking their time on each offensive possession. In doing this they will limit the number of possessions UCONN has, which is paramount given how deadly the Huskies are offensively. From there they will have to rely on their clutch shooting which has benefited them time and again this tournament, most recently in their buzzer beating win over Florida Atlantic. Needless to say, it is going to be extremely difficult for SDSU to keep this game close but if they follow this blueprint then they should at least have a chance to win. Best regards, Olin G. Head of Research at Juicy Wagers       JuicyWagers.com is a publisher and the information provided through its products and services are for informational purposes only. To the extent any such information is deemed to be advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the needs of any specific person. JuicyWagers.com and its affiliates are not responsible for any actions taken by a user of their published information. Headley Investment Analysis, Inc., 201 West Vine Street, Lexington, Kentucky 40507, United States You may [unsubscribe]( or [change your contact details]( at any time.